Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KTWC 222152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
252 PM MST Wed Sep 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy and mostly dry conditions today. Chances for 
showers and storms will increase Thursday and continue through this
weekend as a weather system approaches and moves across the region.


.DISCUSSION...Warm and dry today, but a well developed MCV is
currently churning in the Gulf of California. This will push a
surge of moisture into the region through tomorrow. This can be
seen well in satellite and observations in northern MX with
60s/70s TDs. This will help establish increased moisture as 
GEFS/EPS show a closed cut-off low developing and slowly ejecting
across Arizona into early next week. As the closed low moves 
across the region, expect an uptick in daily showers and 
thunderstorms. This will also bring slightly cooler temps to the 
area. Perhaps one last gasp for the Monsoon of 2021?

By mid next week, a return to dry weather is expected. We still 
are keeping an eye on the tropics, but as of now there are no 
threats to the Southwest. 


.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft MSL thru 23/12Z, with FEW-SCT clouds at 
10k-14k ft MSL aft 23/12Z. Slight chance of -SHRA/-TSRA aft 23/15Z. 
SFC wind ELY/SELY at 10-15 kts thru 23/15Z, then SFC wind variable 
in direction at less than 12 kts thru the remainder of the forecast 
period. Aviation not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be within a couple of degrees 
of normal through Thursday, falling to around 5 degrees below 
normal late in the weekend and early next week. Easterly winds 
will occur through Thursday morning. Dry conditions will continue 
across the area through tonight, with a slight chance of showers 
and thunderstorms starting on Thursday and continuing through the 
weekend into early next week. RH values will remain above critical





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Western Regional Climate Center,