Weather Service Report


373 
FXAK67 PAJK 222236
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
236 PM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Fri/ The storm force front moving into the
panhandle late tonight into tomorrow is the main weather story for
the next few days. Not much has changed with this system from the
previous forecast. We are still expecting Thu to be a rather windy
and wet day as the front moves through.

Gusty winds will be the main concern with this system which will
start up late tonight and may persist into early Fri in some
areas. Currently expecting gale force winds for much of the gulf 
and southern inner channels on Thu (storm force early Thu for Cape
Suckling). Gusts to 40 to 50 mph are likely for many southern 
panhandle and outer coast land areas at the same time. Can't 
completely rule out isolated higher gusts, but they will likely be
brief and infrequent. Post-front W to SW winds of up to 30 kt are
expected across the gulf through Fri before starting to diminish 
Fri night.

As for rainfall, the heaviest rain is still expected to target the
southern panhandle (due to an atmospheric river that just clips
them) and the NE gulf coast (due to SW flow hitting the terrain
mainly post front). Total amounts expected will range from around
1 inch to up to 3 or 4 inches in parts of the Southern panhandle
through early Fri. Some river rises are expected, but no flooding
is forecast at this time. A mention of slight chance of
thunderstorms for the NE gulf coast was included for Thu night as
there might be enough instability behind the front and lifting
from onshore flow hitting the terrain to warrant it.

Guidance was in decent agreement today, but had some different
ideas on the track of the low just west of our area. This did not
effect the timing of the front over the panhandle very much, so
forecast changes mainly focused on local effects particularly with
winds Thu into Fri.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday night/...The extended period
continues to be an active, stormy period for SE Alaska and the 
surrounding waters as robust low pressure systems move through the
Gulf and into the panhandle. The first low is progged to stay 
over the N Gulf through Friday before dissipating over 
Southcentral AK through Saturday. Rainfall will slowly diminish 
through the weekend as onshore flow becomes increasingly offshore 
in the lower levels, and it is looking increasingly likely that 
there could be drier weather, especially through much of Sunday. 
By the end of Sunday, guidance continues to show that a system may
impact parts of the area. However, ensembles are increasingly 
indicating a more Southerly track. Should this verify, much of the
northern panhandle could be spared from a lot of the associated 
weather. As frontal systems continue to enter the area, cooler air
will continue to filter in behind them. 850 mb temperatures 
progged to be below -3C are harbingers of chillier weather ahead 
as Autumn descends upon SE Alaska. 

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for 
     AKZ026.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for 
     AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for 
     AKZ025-028.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for 
     AKZ023.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ052. 
     Gale Warning for PKZ033-035-036-041>043-051-310. 
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031-032-034-053. 

&&

$$

EAL/GFS

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