Weather Service Report


747 
FXUS65 KPUB 230548
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1148 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021

An upper level ridge axis will have just passed over southern 
Colorado at the beginning of the forecast period. To the west of the 
ridge axis is a sharp trough that will begin to propagate over Utah 
and western Colorado throughout this forecast period. 

There is concern that the mountain valleys will reach below freezing 
again tonight. Current thoughts are since there is a shortwave 
propagating towards Colorado there will be enough mixing to keep 
temperatures in the lower 30s, therefore no Freeze Warning has been 
issued. Over the plains and Teller County the minimum temperatures 
will be in the low to mid 40s.

The aforementioned shortwave will create isolated to scattered 
showers with a few rumbles of thunder later Thursday afternoon. No 
major impacts are expected. 

High temperatures continue to trend upwards with values in the mid 
to upper 80s over the plains, the upper 70s to low 80s over the 
mountain valleys, and the 60s to low 70s over Lake, Teller, and 
northern El Paso Counties. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Thursday night and Friday...An upper shortwave will push south 
across the Great Basin Thu evening, producing isolated convection
across the central mts and Rampart Range through the evening 
hours. Since the lower levels are so dry, the expected result of 
these few storms will be gusty winds and some cloud to ground 
lightning. This upper disturbance continues pushing south 
overnight, breaking from the main flow aloft and becoming an 
orphan low over southern CA and AZ. Meanwhile, a cold front is 
forecast to push south into CO Fri morning, ushering in a 5 to 7 
degree cooldown for aftn temps across the eastern plains. 
Overnight low temps are expected to cool into the 30s to around 
40F for the high valleys, and 40s to around 50F for the plains. 
High temps Fri will warm into the 70s for the high valleys, and 
70s to lower 80s for the plains.

Saturday through Monday...High pressure will gradually build into 
the region over the weekend, while the southern low slowly slides to 
the east through Mon. This low will tap into some Pacific moisture, 
which may help initiate some isolated convection over the mts Mon 
aftn and eve. Otherwise, dry with warming temps is the expected 
outcome over the weekend for the forecast area. Forecast high temps 
all three days are expected to be in the 70s to around 80F for the 
high valleys, and 80s to around 90F for the plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Long range models are hinting at a more 
significant upper low pressure system moving onshore Tue, though of 
course there are disagreements on placement. Plan on continued warm 
conditions for Tue, then slightly cooler on Wed due to increased 
cloud cover and precipitation chances. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021

VFR conditions are going to be prevalent for all TAF sites
throughout the forecast period. There will be some isolated areas
of convection developing over the mountains tomorrow with a few
areas of SHRA/TSRA possible during the afternoon and early evening
hours, mainly over the northern Continental Divide and Rampart 
Range. Be advised that winds could become variable and gusty in 
and around the vicinity of these areas if they do occur. Winds 
will be diurnally driven until throughout the first 21 hours of 
the forecast period, and then a weak FROPA will occur around 02Z 
for KCOS and 03Z for KPUB with winds BECMG NNW-NNE and increasing
for both locations. The front will possibly move over KALS right 
at the end of the forecast period, and winds could switch and 
increase out of the NE if this occurs.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...STEWARD

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu