Weather Service Report


947 
FXUS65 KTFX 230605
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1205 AM MDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

Clouds increase overnight, with a slight chance for light rain 
showers in Southwest Montana. Temperatures trend cooler on 
Thursday. Dry and warmer weather follows Friday into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...

Weak surface cool front is moving through the forecast area at
this time. A few light rain showers have been noted on radar
imagery. Additionally, surface observations in far southwest
Montana indicate that some of these showers are producing brief
wind gusts of 30 mph or more; but, so far, no measurable
precipitation. Have increased coverage of slight chance PoPs 
across portions of the forecast area for the remainder of tonight 
and also increased cloud coverage for much of tonight and 
Thursday. No further updates appear to be required at this time. 
mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
1205 AM MDT Thu Sep 23 2021 (23/06Z TAF period) 

VFR conditions are expected to continue across the area through at 
least the next 24 hours. A low pressure trough moving east across 
the area will move the mid and high clouds out to the east by 12Z, 
but until then, a few showers over southwest Montana (KBZN KEKS 
KWYS) may still produce brief wind gusts up to 30 kt. The weakly 
unstable northwest flow aloft in the wake of the trough will bring 
scattered to broken mid- and high-level cloudiness back to the area 
by 18Z, which should persist through at least 06Z. Westerly winds 
will also become gusty over the plains, but mainly with gusts in 
excess of 25 kt close to the Rocky Mountain Front. Winds will then 
shift more northerly over the plains after 00Z as a weak cold front 
drops south out of Canada.
-Coulston

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation 
weather and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low humidity and west winds produced elevated to locally critical
fire weather conditions across North Central Montana today. Winds
will decrease overnight, as a dry front brings cooler and more
humid air into the region for Thursday. Warmer and breezy 
conditions return for the weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021/

High clouds are beginning to increase over the western Montana
this afternoon as a Pacific weather system approaches the region.
Westerly downslope winds have produced warm temperatures with low
humidity today. A surface front will move through this evening and
overnight, resulting in a slight chance for light rain showers
over Southwest Montana. Fair and cooler weather follows for
Thursday. PN

Friday through Wednesday...Overall expect a fairly dry and warm
weather pattern over the region from Friday through Tuesday.
Afternoon temperatures will be above normal over the weekend,
along with a bit windy conditions at times, especially during the
afternoon and early evening hours. A change in the weather 
pattern is looking possible towards Wednesday, as an upper level 
trof moves through the region. Thus there is a chance for showers 
over the western and southern sections of the region starting as 
early as Monday night ahead of the trof. However, the forecast 
models continue to vary on the strength of this system, thus 
precipitation amounts are very uncertain, and confidence is low at
this time on QPF amounts. Otherwise...expect a gradual cooling 
trend for Tue and Wed, as afternoon temperatures fall back down to
more seasonal normals. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  71  40  75 /  10   0   0   0 
CTB  43  68  38  73 /  10   0   0   0 
HLN  48  73  43  78 /  10   0   0   0 
BZN  41  69  37  73 /  20   0   0   0 
WYS  30  63  27  66 /  10   0   0   0 
DLN  38  68  36  73 /  20   0   0   0 
HVR  47  70  41  73 /   0   0   0   0 
LWT  46  67  39  71 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu