Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KFGZ 230352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
850 PM MST Wed Sep 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...The clear skies are coming to an end as we move into 
a period of unsettled weather. From tomorrow into next week, a low
pressure system will impact the region, bringing cooler days and 
slight chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.


.DISCUSSION...Temperature trends this evening are generally near or 
warmer than this time last night. A developing trough to our north 
and a moisture surge to our south has enhanced mixing, allowing for 
warmer overnight temperatures. Had considered dropping temperatures 
earlier this evening, to be more on par with what was recorded this 
morning. But, the trends mentioned above justify the notably warmer 
forecast this evening.

Aside from that, the combination of developing low pressure and a 
deep moisture pool to our south will bring thunderstorm chances back 
into our area Thursday or Friday, likely sticking around through the 
coming weekend.

Current zones/trends/grids look good and no short term updates are 


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the 
24 hour TAF forecast period. ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA along and south of the 
Mogollon Rim AFT 19Z Thursday. Sfc winds generally light. Aviation 
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A weather disturbance will move from north 
to south across Arizona on Thursday and Friday delivering a slight 
chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and south of I-40. 
Otherwise, look for light winds and cooler daytime temperatures. 

Saturday through Monday...The slight chance for showers and 
thunderstorm will continue on Saturday with increased chances on 
Sunday. Drier air will move in for Monday. Winds will remain light.






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