Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KABQ 230537 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1137 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021

VFR conditions will prevail across northern and central New Mexico
over the next 24 hours. High cirrus clouds will continue to increase
from the south with faint mid level moisture eventually working into
southwestern and west central areas of New Mexico by Thursday
afternoon. This could lead to the development of a few sparse high-
based showers or thunderstorms through early Thursday evening. This
shower and storm activity would produce minimal rainfall due to 
evaporation below the cloud bases, and localized gusty outflow winds
would be more likely. Otherwise, prevailing winds will be light to
moderate with a few gusts of 20 to 25 kt possible in the eastern 



.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021...
Warm weather continues through the remainder of the work week and 
into the weekend. A weak and slow moving storm system will bring some
monsoon moisture back into the state with isolated afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms mainly to areas south of I-40 
Thursday through the weekend.


A 593 dam area of high pressure is building over southwestern New 
Mexico/southeastern Arizona at this time, leading to dry conditions 
and mostly clear skies. This upper- level pattern has also created 
light northwest flow aloft. High-level moisture is moving northward 
from Baja California into far southwestern New Mexico, but will 
struggle to even produce more than scattered high clouds. Elsewhere, 
dewpoints range from the 20s in the northwestern corner of the state 
to low 40s across the east central portion of the state. A leeside 
low in southeast Colorado will produce breezy conditions this 
afternoon and a repeat tomorrow afternoon. Overnight lows will be up 
to 12 degrees warmer than last night's. 

A 150-kt polar jet starts to become more active over Alaska, with a 
segment diving southeastward into the Great Basin and extending into
CA/AZ on Thursday. This extra energy will develop into a trough. 
From here, models struggle to handle whether this trough closes off 
into a low. Moisture continues to sneak into southwestern and west 
central New Mexico, with Convective Allowing Models (CAM's) showing a
few splotches of precipitation for tomorrow. With the drier air in 
place, these showers will likely produce more wind than rain. 
Meanwhile, the upper high overhead starts to get pushed off to the 
east by late Thursday/early Friday. High temperatures return to above
normal areawide. 

Quite the complex weather pattern will be taking shape Friday with a
weak upper-level trough dropping southward through eastern UT.
The southwest flow aloft ahead of this feature will attempt to draw
up moisture associated with another weak upper low over northern 
Sonora. The main sensible weather result will be more clouds and
mainly isolated afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorms,
primarily south of I-40 Friday through early next week. High
temperatures are forecast to remain above seasonal averages during 
the next 7-day period. 

Both the GEFS and ECWMF ensemble continue to indicate that the 
Madden- Julian Oscillation (MJO) will finally begin to make progress 
eastward and into phases 5/6 during the first week in October and 
hopefully continue eastward into phases 7/8 during the second week 
of October. A trend toward what climate model forecasts are 
indicating, near to slightly above average precipitation for 
October. 2021 fall (Oct-Nov) outlook has been posted to



Low-end precipitation chances will be possible through the weekend 
across southwestern and west central New Mexico, as moisture streams 
northward from Baja California. These storms will likely produce 
more wind than rain. In the interim, Haines values will be high with 
fair humidity recoveries. As models struggle with the next storm 
system, precipitation chances start to increase over northern and 
central NM by early next week, but with small wetting footprints. 
High temperatures will be near to above normal over the next 7 days.






Return to Home page

Western Regional Climate Center,