Weather Service Report


907 
AXUS74 KEPZ 251334
DGTEPZ
NMC013-017-023-029-035-051-TXC141-229-281345-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
734 AM MDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...LA NINA WATCH IN EFFECT..POSSIBLY EMERGING BY EARLY WINTER...
...PRODUCTIVE MONSOON RAINFALL HAS LESSENED DROUGHT CONDITIONS...

SYNOPSIS...
Though ENSO neutral conditions continue as we near the end of
summer, the chances are increasing that we will enter another La
Nina phase by later fall or early winter. Because of this, a La
Nina Watch is now in effect.

The Monsoon season has turned out unusually wet (and we still 
have about one month left to the season). The season through this 
last week of August has seen well above normal rainfall in most 
places and a few of highest rainfall spots has led to fairly 
serious flood issues; the El Paso metro area among them. Most of 
our Borderland from about Deming east has received from 150-400% 
of normal rainfall since the Monsoon season began mid June. Areas
to the west have not received as much rain, but have still
received about 75-150% of normal for the same period. Thus the
drought conditions have moderated significantly. As of the
beginning of June, most of the Borderland of southern New Mexico
and west Texas were in either extreme or exceptional drought. As
of this week this area is mostly in a moderate drought status.
Areas west of the Continental Divide are still in severe to
extreme drought, still a great improvement over 3 months ago. 

A few rainfall reports of the season (June 15-August 24), with
normal total in parenthesis:
El Paso Intl Airport- 7.96" (3.68") 
NWS Santa Teresa- 13.24"(4.35") 
Deming Muni Airport- 2.32" (4.03")
TCS Muni Airport- 5.07" (3.35")
Hillsboro- 7.40" (4.60")
Elephant Butte Dam- 2.91" (4.01")

As of May 27, Elephant Butte Reservoir sits at 5% of capacity,
compared to 7% one month ago and 6% one year ago.

LA NINA UPDATE:
From CPC...A Nina Watch is in effect as La Nina conditions are
expected to develop by early this winter. As of this writing our
ENSO phase remains neutral.

IRI/CPC...model-based probabilistic ENSO forecast shows neutral
conditions with a 45-55% likelihood La Nina conditions starting by
October or November.

CPC MONTHLY OUTLOOKS:
September - equal chances of above or below normal temperatures
and precipitation.

CPC LONG TERM OUTLOOKS:
September through November temperatures - good chances of above
normal temperatures. 
September through November precipitation - fair chance of 
below normal rainfall.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
D0 = Abnormally dry conditions signal the possible onset of
drought. They are characterized by slow crop growth and elevated
fire risk. Remember that drought is the leading hazard in
economic losses each year in the U.S.
D1 = Moderate conditions are characterized by some damage to
crops and pastures, with high fire risk and stream/reservoir
levels that are usually below normal. Water shortages start to
develop and in some areas voluntary water use restrictions may be
requested.
D2 = Severe drought conditions are characterized by crop or
pasture losses. Fire risk is very high with some water shortages.
If water use restrictions are needed they would typically be
voluntary or locally mandated. D2 drought is defined by 1 in
10 year drought.
D3 = Extreme drought conditions are characterized by major crop
and pasture losses along with extreme fire danger and widespread
water shortages or restrictions.
D4 = Exceptional drought conditions are characterized by
exceptional and widespread crop and pasture losses. Fire risk and
shortages of water in streams and reservoirs become exceptional
and water emergencies are generally issued.  

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
This product will be updated during the last week of September or
sooner if necessary in response to significant changes in conditions.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
Additional information on current drought conditions may be found
at the following web addresses:

US Drought Monitor:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

US Drought Information System:
http://www.drought.gov

NOAA Drought Page:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

U.S. Drought Monitor...www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu

NWS Precipitation analysis page...www.water.weather.gov/precip

Climate Prediction Center...www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Reservoir levels...www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...

National Weather Service:
http://water.weather.gov

US Geological Survey:
http://water.usgs.gov

US Army Corps of Engineers:
http://www.usace.army.mil

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving the
National Weather Service and National Centers for Environmental
Information, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists
and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this
statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites,
state cooperative extension services, the USDA, USACE and USGS.

CONTACT INFORMATION...
If you have questions or comments about this Drought Information
Statement, please contact:

National Weather Service
7955 Airport Rd
Santa Teresa NM 88008
Phone...575-589-4088
www.weather.gov/epz

$$

Hefner

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu