Climate Projections


Introduction

Climate is an emergent product of Earth’s orbit, volcanic activity, atmospheric gases, and energy transfers among air, water, and land. Climate models include equations that represent the physical drivers of climate sufficiently to make useful statistical predictions at global extents and over long time periods. Solving the equations requires substantial amounts of observed or modeled data.

The 10 downscaled climate models that area available on SCENIC were chosen following a three step screening process.
  1. Evaluation of the Global Climate Models at global scale
  2. Evaluation of the Global Climate Models over teh Western United States
  3. Evaluation of the Global Climate Models for the specific needs of the California Department of Water Resources
Read more here: Climate Change Technical Advisory Group (CCTAG) Home Page

Data Access

Case studies for natural resource management

Heatwaves Investigating changes in heatwave probabilities under a warming climate

Changes in heat wave probability do not directly follow changes in background warming. Background warming in the Southwest is greatest in the northern part of the domain, however, the largest increases in heat wave probability occurs in the central part of the domain.

Temperature Extremes
Thermal tolerance of wildlife species

Identifying where on a landscape temperature extremes are exceeded now and where they may be exceeded in the future could help prioritize where to manage for different species.