Weather Service Report


753 
FXUS65 KVEF 250939
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
239 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM 
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH WINDS INCREASING AS A TROUGH 
APPROACHES THE AREA. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY 
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS 
AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 300 MILES OFF THE NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, IT IS FORECAST TO 
OPEN UP, WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THROUGH 
WASHINGTON, OREGON, THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA AND WELL OUT 
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BUT SADLY, WE 
ARE NOT EXPECTED ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCE CLOUD COVER. ALSO 
THERE IS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST THIS 
MORNING MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AND IT HAS BEEN GENERATING 
SOME THIN CLOUD COVER THAT COULD BRING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TO 
PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY. WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST TODAY, SHORTWAVE 
ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE 
GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 
WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ZONES LATER 
THIS MORNING AND BASED ON 00Z HIRES MODEL DATA, THERE IS NO NEED TO 
EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO OTHER AREAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL 
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA WITH DOWNSLOPE 
WINDS PUSHING DOWN THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 
OWENS VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK 
MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED 
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA.

THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND A SURFACE 
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO BE DRY, COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT 
AND DROP SATURDAYS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL 
DEGREES SUNDAY AND THEN TO NORMAL OR BELOW ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE 
SOME ENHANCED FLOW IN NORTH WIND PRONE AREAS LIKE THE COLORADO RIVER 
VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS SHOW NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS 
TIME.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING IS EXPECTED OVER THE 
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. STILL SEEING MODEL 
DIFFERENCES BEGINNING THURSDAY WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A 
PACIFIC TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA LONGER. 
HOWEVER...NOT REALLY MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER 
WAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS VERIFIES WINDS ON 
FRIDAY COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES A TOUCH 
COOLER THAN FORECAST. 
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 8 KTS TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS 
ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 
BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH. 

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...STIFF WINDS UP TO 15 KTS CONTINUE IN THE OWENS VALLEY 
THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEFORE 
INCREASING AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. 
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF LAS 
VEGAS TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 25-30 KTS ELSEWHERE. 
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA 
CREST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN 
OBSCURATIONS DUE TO CLOUD COVER. 
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED 
BUT STRONG WIND AND DAMAGE REPORTS WILL BE NEEDED FROM SPOTTERS 
TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 
&&

$$

SALMEN/HARRISON

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