Weather Service Report


478 
FXUS65 KVEF 010920
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
220 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD PACIFIC STORM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION 
TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH 
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. DRY 
CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN 
THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING. THE WELL ADVERTISED PACIFIC TROUGH IS 
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WITH VALLEY RAIN 
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS REPORTED IN THE AREA. THE WINTER WEATHER 
ADVISORY ABOVE 7000 FEET REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOOKS GOOD FOR THE 
SOUTHERN SIERRA THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN 
THE SIERRA OF INYO COUNTY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE BUT 
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. 
ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH 
THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY [THOUGH 
LIMITED] WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING. ONE CONCERN 
THAT WAS ADDRESSED THIS MORNING IS WIND. WINDS NEAR THE BAND OF 
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN GUSTING A BIT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS 
MORNING AND WITH A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXPECTED HAVE OPTED 
TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF 
LAS VEGAS TODAY AS WELL AS NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. THE PERIOD OF 
GUSTY WINDS AT ANY ONE LOCATION MAY BE BRIEF [1-2 HOURS] BUT WITH 
SUBSTANTIAL GUSTS POSSIBLE I FELT THE ADVISORY WAS JUSTIFIED. I ALSO 
ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST WHERE THE STRONGEST 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH CALMER 
WINDS SUNDAY. THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS 
SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY. MODELS ARE 
STILL NOT OVERLY AMBITIOUS WITH QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY SO LITTLE IN THE 
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS. IF A FEW SHOWERS 
MOVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THERE COULD BE AND INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ABOVE 
6500 FEET. 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TODAY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 
130 AM WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60'S AND LOW 70'S IN THE LAS VEGAS 
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE TEMPERATURES LATER THIS 
AFTERNOON. A WEAK REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY 
RESULTING IN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY MORNING THE TROUGH 
AXIS SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND 
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH SPLITTING TUESDAY WITH A PIECE OF 
ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...BUT THERE IS 
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN WHERE THIS PIECE ENDS UP AND WHETHER IT CLOSES 
OFF OR REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT A 
CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS OR NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 
BUT THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MUCH FARTHER WEST...NEAR THE MIDDLE OF 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND SHOWS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF 
TROPICAL STORM VANCE WRAPPING AROUND OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA BY 
THURSDAY. AS NOTED...THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION...AND THUS FAR THIS 
SEASON THE ECMWF HAS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING EASTERN PACIFIC 
TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOSTLY CLEAR AND 
DRY THROUGHOUT WITH A FASTER WARMING TREND THAN THE ECMWF WOULD 
SUGGEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS AT KLAS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S BY LATE IN 
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY 
WINDS...LOWERED CIGS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. THE BEST 
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CIGS AT OR BELOW 5K FEET WILL OCCUR 
BETWEEN 14Z-18Z THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING 
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND MAY TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION VERY 
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH CIGS BETWEEN 5-10K FEET STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS 
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. 
CLOUD BASES 5K-10K FEET ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED 
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KDAG-KLAS-KIGM LINE TODAY WITH THE GREATEST 
CHANCES IN AND AROUND KBIH. CIGS AND VSBY IN VALLEYS MAY BRIEFLY 
LOWER FURTHER NEAR ANY SHRA. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MECHANICAL 
TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THAT TIME 
FRAME.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

$$

WOLCOTT/MORGAN

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