Weather Service Report


419 
FXUS65 KVEF 162212
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
312 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR 
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 
A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER 
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY AND 
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.   
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...BRIEF RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE 
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE 
REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 
15-25 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS 
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING AND TEMPERATURES TO JUMP AROUND 3-5 
DEGREES OVER TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.

COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 
LOWERING TO SEASONAL NORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE 
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AS DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND MOISTURE IS 
LIMITED. THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY BUT 
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA THAT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON 
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ON 
SATURDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY 
DRY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE TROUGH. 

NEXT WEEK IS BEGINNING TO LOOK INTERESTING...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT 
MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE. GFS/GEM 
VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN INDICATING A DEEP COLD TROUGH SLOWLY 
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE 
12Z ECMWF CAME IN NOT AS SHARP/DEEP WITH THE TROUGH TUESDAY AND IS 
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES 
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE CAN SAY STRONG WINDS WILL 
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON 
WEDNESDAY. MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION DETAILS DUE TO 
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. BOTTOM LINE...DID NOT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO 
THE EXTENDED.   
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS EXPECTED 
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY MORNING WINDS 
WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 8 KTS. AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL 
INCREASE WITH A DIRECTION INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 
EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS 8-12 KTS. THEN AROUND 22Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON 
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET EXPECTED THROUGH 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.    

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THIS EVENING AREAS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SEE 
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS AND UNDER 10 KTS 
ACROSS THE SOUTH. SPEEDS DECREASE AND REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS 
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM 
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS 
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET THROUGH 
THURSDAY MORNING THEN SCT-BKN AOA 15K FEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA AND AOA 20K FEET ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEVADA.   
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

STUMPF/PIERCE

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