Weather Service Report


436 
FXUS65 KVEF 311726
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 
1026 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY 
WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF MOHAVE COUNTY WITH JUST PASSING 
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&

.UPDATE...TWEAKED THE WIND/POP/SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST 
TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES 
WERE MADE...BUT DID BOOST SOUTHERLY WINDS A BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER 
MOHAVE COUNTY AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. STILL EXPECTING 
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN 
MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. NO FURTHER UPDATES PLANNED 
THIS MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL CLOSELY RESEMBLE WHAT WE OBSERVED SUNDAY WITH 
ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF MOHAVE COUNTY. 
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN OBSERVED SUNDAY BUT 
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. 
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW 
DEGREES OF WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF AUGUST.

ON TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE BULK OF 
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WHICH AS FUELED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE 
PAST COUPLE DAYS FINALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SOME ISOLATED STORMS 
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR MT. TRUMBULL BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD 
BE VERY SPARSE.  BY WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A STRENGTHENING 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES 
HOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES. 

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE 
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. 
THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH 
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY TO WINDY 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT SHOULD 
DECREASE SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN 
ROCKIES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST WEST OF 
THE TIP OF BAJA THURSDAY MORNING AND GETTING PICKED UP BY THE 
SOUTHWEST FLOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE 
WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT COULD JUST CLIP MOHAVE 
COUNTY. I DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY THUNDERSTORMS 
CHANCES THERE YET BUT THAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY FOR THE 
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME PERHAPS. 
&& 

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME 
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED NEAR THE TERMINAL. A LIGHT EAST-
SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT MAY DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING THEN TRANSITION 
TO SOUTH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR AND 
WILL DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH 
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. 
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 
GUSTS OF 20-25KTS.  AREAS OF SMOKE CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED IN THE 
OWENS VALLEY AND NEAR KBIH. 
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE 
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING 
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOLCOTT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER 
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

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