Weather Service Report


811 
FXUS65 KVEF 290944
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
245 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected today and will be favored over the higher terrain. By
Friday, showers will be much more limited as drier air begins to
move into the area ahead of a trough. However, the trough will
provide gusty winds across the area this weekend and into Monday.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal through Saturday but will
plummet 15 to 20 degrees by Monday.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Saturday night.

The upper level low, currently located near Beatty, NV is weakening
and slowly working its way off to the northeast. A few light showers
continue to push north across Clark, Mohave and Lincoln Counties and
that is where the main showers activity and isolated thunderstorms
will be found today with limited but sufficient instability as
lifted indices will be slightly negative and a couple hundred J/kg
of CAPE will be available. Additionally, an isolated thunderstorm is
possible over the higher terrain of Inyo County. By Friday the next
trough that will influence our weather will move toward the Pacific
Northwest coast and provide us with a drier southwesterly flow. This
will begin to push moisture away to the east and limit shower
activity to eastern Mohave and northern Lincoln Counties on Friday.
By Saturday the trough will be along the west coast and begin to
provide an increase in southwest winds. This will be the last day
with temperatures above the seasonal normals for quite a while. 

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.

Made some significant downward adjustments to Monday and Tuesdays
temperatures as model agreement converges on a deeper trough moving
through and dragging a stronger frontal passage with it. On Sunday
temperatures will remain near normal with breezy to windy conditions
expected across much of the region especially the Mojave Desert.
Wind gusts in some locations may exceed 40 mph and will likely be
needing wind headlines at some point. Winds especially downwind of
terrain features will really be cranking Sunday night into Monday as
the trough moves in with high winds possible downwind of the Spring
mountains and across parts of San Bernardino County, possibly parts
of the Owens Valley as well. We will need to keep an eye on this in
the upcoming shifts.

Much cooler air will overspread the region Monday with high
temperatures falling ten degrees below normal or more. Highs in Las
Vegas will struggle to reach much beyond the low 70s, with Death
Valley likely not reaching 90 degrees. Clearing skies and decreasing
wind speeds will also allow for chilly morning temperatures Tuesday
across some of the Southern Great Basin and higher elevations of
Mohave county. We will need to watch for the possibility of
localized freezing conditions in some areas. Specifically, Bishop,
Diamond M Ranch (eastern Mohave County) and some of the Great Basin
valleys will be within striking distance of the first freezing
temperatures of the season.   Cool temperatures will linger Tuesday
and Wednesday morning before temperatures begin to rebound closer to
seasonal normals for the middle and later portions of the week.
Temperatures however will still remain a few degrees below normal.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Increasingly sensitive fire weather is expected over
the next several days as a weather system moves through the region.
On Saturday, breezy conditions combined with low afternoon RH's will
favor some localized red flag conditions but coverage doesn't appear
widespread at the moment. On Sunday...winds will increase further
and favor a period of critical fire weather and widespread Red Flag
conditions Sunday into Sunday evening. Improving conditions are
expected next week although some patchy red flag conditions are
possible with northwest winds behind a cold front Monday afternoon.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Scattered thunderstorms over the higher
terrain of the Spring Mountains and Sheep Range as well as in the
Peach Springs corridor. A shower near the terminal cannot be
completely ruled out through this evening. Any CIGs will generally
remain above 10k feet. Light winds favoring typical diurnal trends
are expected through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms into this
evening over the higher terrain of Clark, Lincoln, Mohave and Inyo
Counties. Expect gusty winds near any shower activity. Outside of
showers, light south to southeast winds will common today. 
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected over Clark, Lincoln and Mohave Counties
as well as the higher terrain of Inyo County today. Activity will be
limited on Friday. Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall
amounts and any other significant weather.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Czyzyk
Long Term/Fire Weather...Outler

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu