114 FXUS65 KVEF 192156 AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 256 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING LOCAL GUSTY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. A STORM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY WILL BRING PERSISTENT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FROM MID WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE LINCOLN COUNTY PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA ON THE OTHER HAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A DRY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON MONDAY BEFORE A PACIFIC STORM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH UTAH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT WILL CREATE NORTH WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE NORTH WIND PRONE AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH MAY BE SEEN. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE LOW FORMS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA. INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THEN THE INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS. .LONG TERM...THE LARGE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINATING FEATURE THURSDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS THE CWA. THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH COULD PUSH WINDS INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY IF THIS MODEL SOLUTION VERIFIES. IT COULD ALSO CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINE WITH DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN LIFTS IT INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA SATURDAY...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE THEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACTING AS A DAMPER TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT POINTS TO TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST UNDER SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LAS VEGAS NEXT THU-SAT IS THE LOW 90S SO OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AVERAGE WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AT 10-13KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS AND GUSTY MONDAY. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-20KTS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST MONDAY AT 10-15KTS AND GUSTY. THE STRONGEST WIND CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30KTS IS EXPECTED. FEW-SCT CU OVER EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON... OTHERWISE CLEAR. && .FIRE WEATHER...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE DISTRICT TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WIDESPREAD WINDS OVER 35 MPH WILL BE SEEN. HOWEVER LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BULLHEAD CITY. DUE TO WHAT NOW APPEARS TO BE A MORE LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR AZZ101...CAZ229...AND NVZ466 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED HOWEVER ON MONDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL DROP TO BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SINGLE DIGIT VALUES EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. THE LONGER RANGE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA BEGINNING IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT ON TUESDAY AND THEN SPREADING DISTRICT WIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH MAY BE SEEN ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO FURTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE INTO THE WORK WEEK. && .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ JENSEN/SALMEN FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER |