Weather Service Report


196 
FXUS65 KVEF 272212
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
212 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS OFF AND ON HIGH CLOUDS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEK
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THANKFULLY VERY LITTLE 
WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN STORY OF THE TODAY AND EVEN THESE ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE 
EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE 
NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 70'S 
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL 
FLATTEN TO ZONAL FLOW BY SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE 
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE 
REGION AND BRING A FEW AREAS OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY 
CONDITIONS...MOST NOTABLY TO AREA MOUNTAINS AND RIDGETOPS OF INYO 
AND CLARK COUNTIES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR 
WIND HIGHLIGHTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS I HAVE BUMPED WIND 
SPEEDS UP CONSIDERABLY OVER THE INHERITED FORECAST...PRIMARILY FOR 
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN BETTER MIXING 
INTO THE AREA VALLEYS AND COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY IN AREAS 
WHERE WEAK INVERSIONS HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ID LOVE TO SAY THAT I'M THANKFUL 
FOR MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BUT UNFORTUNATELY THAT HAS NOT BEEN 
THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE OLD ADAGE "THE CUT OFF LOW 
IS THE WEATHERMAN'S WOE" SEEMS APPROPRIATE TODAY AS OUR EXTENDED 
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH SIGNIFICANT DETAILS IN THE 
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE ECMWF FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS NOW KEEPS MOST OF OUR FORECAST 
AREA DRY NEXT WEEK AND IS NOW INSISTING THAT THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE 
PACIFIC COAST WHICH HAD PROMISED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY 
NEXT WEEK WILL NOW LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST 
AS A RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  THIS 
WOULD NOT BODE WELL FOR THOSE OF US LOOKING FORWARD TO A RAINFALL 
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP BEING LIMITED TO PRIMARILY 
INYO COUNTY AT BEST. ALTERNATIVELY...THE GFS PUSHES BROAD TROUGHING 
INTO THE WEST COAST AS THE CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE FILLS AND DRIFTS 
INLAND...DIRECTING A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST 
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ISN'T OFFERING MUCH GREATER 
SUPPORT ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WITH SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD STILL INDICATED 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...TRENDED POPS BACK EVEN FURTHER WITH THE BEST 
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA (IF IT ENDS UP MATERIALIZING) 
BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPS 
AND POSITIONS ITSELF IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE SHOULD GET A BETTER 
IDEA OF WHAT DIRECTION TO TAKE THE FORECAST. 
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH TYPICAL SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 
8KTS OVERNIGHT. BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH 
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. 
BKN-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............OUTLER

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