Weather Service Report


209 
FXUS65 KVEF 250343
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
845 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT 
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND 
COOLER TEMPERATURES. GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IN 
ADDITION...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE 
DESERT FRIDAY AND BECOME QUITE STRONG ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN AREAS 
OF BLOWING DUST. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. 
&&

.UPDATE...MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE 
DESERT AND THE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY 
AND NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY.  WINDS THIS EVENING HAVE COME DOWN 
SOMEWHAT NEAR DAGGETT AND BICYCLE LAKE WHERE GUSTS IN THE PAST HOUR 
HAVE BEEN BELOW 40 MPH FOR BOTH LOCATIONS WITH IMPROVING 
VISIBILITIES. I EXPECT THIS LULL TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT 
IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY BEFORE REALLY PICKING UP AGAIN BY MID MORNING 
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THIS AREA LOOKS GOOD.

FURTHER WEST...NICE ARCING CLOUD BAND EXTENDS FROM LINCOLN COUNTY 
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WITH OGRANIZED SHOWER 
ACTIVITY EVIDENT ON RADAR FROM SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY INTO NORTHERN 
CLARK COUNTY. I DO BELIEVE THIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAS VEGAS 
VALLEY AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS BUT YOU WONT HAVE TO 
GO FAR TO OBSERVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH REASONABLY HIGH PROBABILITIES 
FOR SHOWERS FROM MOAPA AND MESQUITE NORTHWARDS INTO LINCOLN COUNTY.

IVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR 
CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED RAINFALL TRENDS AND ADJUSTED THE CLOUD 
COVER. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. 

-OUTLER- 

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS 
AFTERNOON WITH MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND 
EASTERN CLARK COUNTIES. DRIER AND A BIT MORE STABLE AIR WAS WORKING 
IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING 
THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN. ALONG WITH THIS 
DRIER AIR ARE STRONG WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLOWING ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PLACES THAT HAVE 
GUSTED OVER 50 MPH WITH BICYCLE LAKE JUST REACHING 58 MPH WITHIN THE 
PAST HOUR. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BUT 
ARE EXPECTED TO LULL A BIT OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN 
SATURDAY. CURRENTLY WE HAVE WIND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN 
MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE 
UPGRADED TO A WARNING OVERNIGHT AS WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 60 MPH 
SATURDAY. 

WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION PRECIPITATION 
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN 
AREAS OF THE CWA AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE 
THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN 
COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT TRACKS SOUTH SATURDAY 
EVENING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER CLARK AND 
MOHAVE COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER 
MOHAVE CLARK COUNTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MOHAVE 
COUNTY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS 
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...SOUTHERN CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE 
AREAS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT FAIRLY 
QUICKLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY 
SUNDAY MORNING LEAVING GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. 

OUTSIDE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA 
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE STRONGEST WINDS 
WILL OCCUR DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER AND ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH READINGS DOWN ABOUT 5-7 
DEGREES WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND SUNDAY. 

.LONG TERM...MONDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON 
MONDAY...BUT NORTHERLY WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER 
VALLEY WILL PERSIST FOR ONE MORE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE 
LIGHTER THAN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND THE 
SEASONAL NORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS THE LOW 80S IN LAS 
VEGAS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON 
TUESDAY AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON 
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD BOTH 
DAYS...CLIMBING ON AVERAGE 10 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 
THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TIMING...BUT THE 
GFS...GEFS AND ECMWF HAVE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL 
PROVIDE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS BY 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE WITH THE 
TROUGH LOOKS TO BE WINDS WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED AND WELL NORTH 
OF OUR AREA. 
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 
KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...BUT 
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 10-15 KTS. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS 
BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH 
MOST REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY 
MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEY BETWEEN 22Z-04Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN ABOVE 8K FEET BUT MAY LOWER TO AROUND 6K FEET NEAR ANY 
SHOWERS. 

.FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN SAN 
BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE GUST TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS 
EVENING. ELSEWHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS LESS THAN 15 
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING OVER 
MAINLY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 
WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN 
COUNTIES WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CIGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 5-6K FEET AT TIMES NEAR 
ANY RAINFALL. 
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO 
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...CZYZYK

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