620 FXUS65 KVEF 231918 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1218 PM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Breezy conditions are expected much of the week along with a gradual cooling trend as two low pressure systems move through the region. The strongest winds are expected to be in western San Bernardino County and a Wind Advisory has been issued for that area. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures will fall below late April normals, and there will be a chance of showers mainly along and north of I-40. && .SHORT TERM...through Friday. A low pressure system, currently in the Eastern Pacific near California, will track eastward over the next few days and enter the Southwest United States. Another system, currently located in the eastern Gulf of Alaska, will follow shortly behind the first system and dive south into the Great Basin by Friday. The orientation of the low pressure systems and enhancement of a low level jet will result in increased southwesterly to westerly winds across most of the forecast area from Wednesday through Friday. The strongest winds are expected to be in western San Bernardino County, where there is a greater than 90 percent chance of wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. For this reason, a Wind Advisory has been issued from 5 PM Wednesday to 11 PM PDT Friday for western San Bernardino County. Strong winds and reduced visibility due to blowing dust may create hazardous travel conditions on Interstates 15 and 40. Other sections of the forecast area may reach Wind Advisory criteria, but these winds should be mainly confined to high terrain and have few impacts. Another point of interest in the short term is the return of precipitation potential. There is a low end chance of seeing showers in Esmeralda County this afternoon. However, increased moisture and instability associated with the low brings greater chances for snow showers in the mountains and rain showers and thunderstorms in lower terrain tomorrow for Inyo and Esmeralda Counties. By Thursday and Friday, PWATs rise to around half an inch for most of the area, which is over 140 percent of normal for this time of year. POPs become most widespread on Friday as the trough axis moves through with the greatest chances in the southern Great Basin and northern Mohave County, generally north of Las Vegas. Las Vegas itself has a 37 percent chance of receiving at least 0.01 inch of rain on Friday. Lastly, temperatures will decrease through Friday as heights fall aloft with the approaching low pressure systems. Today's highs are forecast to be above average, decreasing to near average by Thursday, then several degrees below average by Friday. For Las Vegas, this means highs in the mid 70s by Friday. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday. The low pressure system exits to the east on Saturday, clearing out all precipitation potential for the area except for some lingering showers in northern Lincoln and Mohave Counties. PWATs should return to near seasonal averages. Heights rise as ridging develops early next week, resulting in increasing temperatures through next Wednesday. Discrepancies remain between models about how much temperatures will rise as it depends upon the intensity of the ridging and how the timing and location of a low over the Pacific Northwest will affect ridge development. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy southerly winds with gusts to around 20 knots will persist today before easing somewhat late in the overnight hours. Gusts will resume tomorrow morning with peak gusts again in the 20 knot range that will continue through sundown. Skies will be mostly clear through the period. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Breezy south or southwesterly winds will be the primary focus for most of the regional TAF sites, with afternoon gusts of 20 to 25 knots that persist through the early evening. Strongest gusts will be focused near KDAG where gusts may approach 30 knots. Similar conditions expected tomorrow though increasing shower activity is expected around KBIH and the Sierra vicinity with possible mountain obscuration possible late in the afternoon and evening and isolated thunderstorm activity. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Outler For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter |