Weather Service Report


798 
FXUS65 KVEF 250351 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO 
THE SIERRA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING 
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN THE 
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR 
TRENDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH 
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTY. FAR SOUTHERN 
NEVADA INCLUDING CLARK COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY 
ARE ALSO GETTING...OR WILL BE GETTING IN ON THE ACTION THIS EVENING. 
IN GENERAL, SHOWERS WERE PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS GENERALLY 
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT SENSORS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS WERE 
REPORTING UPWARDS OF A THIRD OF AN INCH AS THE STORMS ROLLED OVER. 
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. 
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...312 PM PDT...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED 
YESTERDAYS LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE ARIZONA MEXICO BORDER WITH A 
SECONDARY CIRCULATION DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. AREA 
RADARS SHOWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CLARK...LINCOLN AND 
MOHAVE COUNTIES MOVING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST. AFTER THE SECONDARY 
CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MONDAY 
WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR AND NORTH 
OF LAS VEGAS. BY TUESDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO 
WASHINGTON STATE...BUT HEIGHTS WILL RISE A LITTLE MORE OVER OUR 
AREA...PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY AND PUSHING 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN MONDAY. MODELS SHOW 
THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON PHASING WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH 
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN BAJA WEDNESDAY...FORMING A FULL LATITUDE 
TROUGH OVER THE WEST. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO AGREE ON LITTLE CHANGE IN 
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL 
REMAINING NORTH OF LAS VEGAS AND TEMPERATURES EDGING UP A COUPLE 
MORE DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEAK TROUGH WILL STILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY WITH LIMITED 
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY OVER MAINLY LINCOLN COUNTY AND THE 
SIERRA CREST WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LIMITED AT LESS THAN 30 
PERCENT IN THESE AREAS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION 
THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. AS THE 
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE THROUGH NEXT 
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT BY THE WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 
7-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES 
BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE 
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF TRIES TO WEAKEN THE 
HIGH A BIT AS A TROUGH SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS KEEPS 
THE HIGH FIRMLY OVER THE AREA. IF THE GFS VERIFIES TEMPERATURES 
COULD EASILY REACH THE LOW 100S IN LAS VEGAS WITH 110 IN NEEDLES AND 
BETWEEN 110-115 IN DEATH VALLEY. RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES 
SLIGHTLY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE...BUT IF THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGH 
IN PLACE THEN WE WILL SEE THOSE HOTTER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE REACHING 
WITHIN 3 SM OF THE TERMINAL. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 30KTS WILL 
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL 
REMAIN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FEET. 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE AROUND AGAIN MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM CLOSE TO MCCARRAN. 

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS LINCOLN...INYO...CENTRAL NYE AND CLARK 
COUNTIES. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY 
STORM AND CIGS AROUND 8-10K FEET. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN 
IN THE FORECAST MONDAY WITH MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY. 
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT 
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING 
PROCEDURES. &&

$$

MORGAN/GORELOW

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