Weather Service Report


830 
FXUS65 KVEF 251023
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
225 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER 
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON MONDAY. ONE MORE 
DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS 
AND RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT MONDAY. A SWATH OF 
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

ONE MORE DAY OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS IN STORE TODAY WITH 
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 10 AND 12 
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THE EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...I NUDGED 
TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A DEGREE OF TWO FROM THE BETTER PERFORMING 
GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS LAS VEGAS AT 72 FOR A HIGH...JUST A FEW DEGREES 
SHY OF THE RECORD. I ALSO NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES FOR 
DEATH VALLEY AFTER THEY REPORTED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 83F ON 
SATURDAY.  GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY 
TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN WEAKER THAN OBSERVED SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING 
THIS EVENING.

AFTER TODAY...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL 
MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE SLUNG NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST 
THANKS TO A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST. INCREASING 
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT 
BUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM 
SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST 
RAINFALL ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR INCLUDING LAS VEGAS WILL 
BE FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS 
BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT SO FAR WITH THIS TIMING SO I CONTINUED TO 
BUMP POPS UPWARDS ON TONIGHTS SHIFT.  LESS CONSISTENT HAS BEEN MODEL 
QPF WHICH VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL BUT LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN A TENTH 
AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST OF THE 
DESERTS (INCLUDING LAS VEGAS)...WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE 
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN 
NEVADA.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY WARM NATURE OF THE 
AIRMASS....HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAKE IT HARD TO DISCOUNT 
THE POSSIBILITY THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER. 

DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS...SNOW LEVELS WILL 
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT.  
SO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SNOWFALL WONT BE 
AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM. ABOVE THE SNOW LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE 
TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO 
LIFT NORTH TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DWINDLING OVER THE COURSE OF 
THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE 
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE 
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH LINGERING MOISTURE 
AND CLEARING SKIES. 

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEDNESDAY 
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER RELATIVELY 
WARM...FOR JANUARY...UPPER TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF 
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS IN FROM THE 
WEST AND DEEPENS SOMEWHAT. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW I 
KEPT SHOWERS LIMITED TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY THURSDAY 
WITH BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT 
AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS AGREEMENT 
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A RIDGE WILL START NOSING INTO 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY...PUSHING THE LOW 
SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT WE SHOULD START TO SEE DRYING ACROSS 
ESMERALDA COUNTY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INYO...LINCOLN AND NYE 
COUNTIES. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL BE 
POSITIONED OVER BAJA BY SATURDAY WILL GIVE MOHAVE COUNTY THE BEST 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM LOOK TO BE A 
TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. 

&& 

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY 
DRIVEN WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED TODAY. STILL ANTICIPATING INCREASING 
CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS MONDAY EVENING WITH RAIN EXPECTED AT THE 
AIRFIELD MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 5K FEET BY 6Z 
TUESDAY. 

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL 
GUSTS TO 25KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE COLORADO 
RIVER...PARTICULARLY NEAR KIFP AND KEED. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND 
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS 
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED BY 
MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND BY MONDAY NIGHT NORTH 
OF INTERSTATE 40. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED 
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

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