Weather Service Report


813 
FXUS65 KVEF 270927
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
227 AM PDT Thu Apr 27 2017


.SYNOPSIS....A strong disturbance will swing through the region 
from the north on Friday and will bring another round of gusty 
north or northwest winds. Watching the potential for strong winds 
down the Colorado River Valley Friday into Saturday. After a 
cooler pattern Friday and Saturday, a warming trend will commence 
Sunday as the disturbance pushes east. Dry conditions and the 
warming trend will continue into the beginning of next week. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night.

Winds will continue to impact the area through the first part of 
the weekend as a strong low digs south into the Southwest. Didnt 
make too much in the way of changes to the previous forecast with 
winds on Friday or Saturday. Models disagree as to exactly how 
strong winds will be Friday afternoon into Saturday. Guidance is 
higher than overall hi res model output, however guidance has 
been decreasing with each model run. 850mb and 700mb winds actual
decrease through the day on Friday as the center of the low 
pressure system pushes southward. However, synopticly speaking, 
this is a rather strong system with a good slug of forcing...and 
this is a favorable set for wind enhancement through the Colorado
River Valley...so the stronger winds advertised by guidance 
aren't out of the question. Given the amount of uncertainty that 
remains with wind gusts, continued with the high wind watch for 
the time being.

The good news is that winds should slowly diminish Saturday 
evening through Sunday as the system pulls away, and lighter winds
finally return for the second half of the weekend. 

Precipitation from this disturbance will be confined to parts of 
Lincoln County on Friday. Just a slight chance of precip is 
expected as the better forcing doesn't match up with the higher 
low level moisture. 

Temperatures will cool off for Friday and the beginning of the weekend
behind a cold front moving through the area later today. Dropped 
high temperatures slightly Friday and Saturday per guidance 
trends, which is supported by the fairly good shot of cold air 
advection. Was able to bring up high temps on Sunday though as 
models have gone much warmer at 850mb. With very little cloud 
cover, the area should warm up quickly for the second half of the 
weekend. 
&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.

Good model agreement is leading to fairly high confidence in the 
forecast for the long term. A dry northwest flow will persist over 
the forecast area Sunday through Wednesday with strong high pressure 
just off the California Coast. Temperatures will warm from near 
normal Sunday to 5 or so degrees above normal for Monday through 
Wednesday. Some northerly breezes will stick around through the 
period but overall not expecting anything near wind advisory 
levels.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...A frontal boundary currently situated 
over the northern portions of the Las Vegas Valley will gradually 
push through the airport bringing a northwest flow. This is expected 
to occur between 11z-13z this morning. Winds may gust to 15 kts at 
times after passage. Winds will likely remain northwest through the 
remainder of the afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts at times. 

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast 
California...Northwest flow over much of the area today with winds 
up to 25 kts. Winds may gust near 35 kts across Esmeralda and 
central Nye Counties during the afternoon. West winds up to 35 kts 
will occur over western portions of San Bernardino County. Much 
stronger north winds possible Friday and Saturday. Skies should 
generally consist of only scattered high clouds. 
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Overall, dry and breezy conditions are expected the 
next several days. The exception will be a chance of showers over 
northeast Lincoln County Friday as an upper level low pressure 
system develops over Utah. Precipitation amounts will likely be 
fairly light. Northerly winds will become pretty strong Friday into 
Saturday, especially down the Colorado River Valley. The strong 
winds combined with low relative humidities will result in a period 
of critical fire weather Friday and Saturday along the Colorado 
River Valley and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for this 
potential. Improving conditions are expected Sunday as wind speeds 
decrease but low humidities will persist. 
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report 
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating 
procedures. 
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Allen
LONG TERM....Harrison
AVIATION...Gorelow

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu