Weather Service Report


695 
FXUS65 KVEF 020938
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
238 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY 
AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF LAS VEGAS AS A WEAK 
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MUCH 
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION CONFINING ANY 
STORMS TO MAINLY NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES MONDAY. DRY 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THUNDERSTORMS 
CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO MOHAVE COUNTY BY THE END OF THE 
WEEK. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. 

MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF KINGMAN NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CLARK 
COUNTY AND INTO LINCOLN COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEING 
AIDED BY THE FORCING OF THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE THAT PUSHED 
THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT IS MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 
AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CLARK 
AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS 
NORTH WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF NVA AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKING INTO 
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWERS AND 
STORMS TO MAINLY CENTRAL NYE...LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES 
THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER NORTHERN INYO 
AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES. BY TONIGHT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER 
FAIRLY STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF 
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MONDAY WILL 
CONTINUE THE TREND OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AS A 
DEVELOPING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST BRINGS IN A MUCH DRIER AND MORE 
STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW. DID LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER 
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY WHERE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK 
INSTABILITY RESIDE...BUT THOSE CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHES ANY 
REMAINING MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A 
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND THEN CLIMB TO NEAR TO 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES 
TRAVERSING THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF 
OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE WAVES WILL YIELD AN INCREASE 
IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE INYO AND SOUTHERN GREAT 
BASIN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE BIG 
STORY WILL BE THE MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES 
THE COAST. OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES 
CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...AS 
WELL AS THE HIGH TO THE EAST NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...ALLOWING 
MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN UP FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING 
THURSDAY. ALL INGREDIENTS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE...INCLUDING 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 1 INCH 
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER MOHAVE COUNTY...FORCING WITH THE 
ADVANCING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT 
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES. 
THEREFORE...OPTED TO RAISE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER MOHAVE 
COUNTY...AS WELL AS EASTERN CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THURSDAY 
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DECIDED TO KEEP THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY OUT 
OF THE ACTION FOR NOW...AS MINOR CHANGES IN THE TIMING AND 
PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE COULD SPELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SEEING 
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REMAINING DRY. AS FOR THE NORTHWEST 
ZONES...DUE TO CONCERNS OVER THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND 
INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS 35-45 KTS OF SHEAR DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER 
LOW...DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 
IN THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

OUTSIDE OF THE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THIS SYSTEM WILL 
REINTRODUCE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH 
AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING 4-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY 
FALLING JUST SHORT OF THE CENTURY MARK IN LAS VEGAS. 
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PEACH 
SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY 
REDEVELOP OVER THE MORMON MESA CORRIDOR AFTER 18Z...BUT WILL REMAIN 
AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS AT 
THE TERMINAL TODAY UNDER GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO 
LINCOLN...NYE...ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. LESS 
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. ERRATIC GUSTY 
WINDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY 
THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN 
WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS AS 
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. 
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT 
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING 
PROCEDURES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY.
&&

$$

GORELOW/PULLIN

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