Weather Service Report


939 
FXUS65 KTWC 241645
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
945 AM MST Mon Apr 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Continued dry conditions with above average daytime 
temperatures and gusty afternoon winds through Wednesday. A few 
showers may occur across the White Mountains Tuesday. A stronger 
storm system will then bring strong and gusty winds Friday into 
Saturday. There is also a chance of showers as far west as Tucson 
especially Friday night and Saturday, and a greater chance of 
showers east of Tucson.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies or just a few thin cirriform clouds were 
across southeast Arizona at this time. Dewpoints at lower elevations 
valid 9 AM MST ranged from the mid teens to lower 20s F, and these 
temperatures were down 5-15 degrees versus 24 hours ago. Surface 
temperatures valid 9 AM MST were mostly within a couple of degrees 
or so versus this time Sunday. 24/12Z KTWC sounding total precip 
water value of 0.27 inch was essentially unchanged versus 24 hours 
ago. Moderate to strong swly/wly flow prevailed throughout much of 
the column.

Expect mostly sunny skies today with afternoon high temperatures 
generally 2-8 degrees cooler versus Sunday. However, the very dry 
regime in combination with gusty southwest to west winds will create 
critical fire weather conditions into early this evening. A Red Flag 
Warning is in effect from 11 AM this morning until 7 PM MST this 
evening from about the Tucson metro area east and south to the New 
Mexico/International borders respectively.

Strong and gusty winds will occur Tuesday. A Wind Advisory may be 
issued later today for locales east of Tucson. An impulse embedded 
within northwesterly flow aloft may be sufficient to generate a few 
showers across the White Mountains Tuesday.

Please refer to the additional sections in this product for more 
detail.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/18Z.
Expect SKC to SCT clouds above 20k ft AGL into this evening, then 
SCT-BKN clouds around 8k-14k ft AGL and BKN clouds above 20k ft AGL 
late tonight into Tuesday. Surface wind into this evening and after 
15Z Tuesday sly to wly 10-25 kts with gusts to 35 kts. Surface wind 
during the 04Z-15Z period mainly less than 12 kts with generally a 
sly component. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM this 
morning until 7 PM MST this evening for the southeastern half of 
fire weather zone 151 and for most of fire weather zone 152. The 
combination of strong and gusty southwest to west winds, relative 
humidity in the single digits to lower teens, and a high fire danger 
will create critical fire weather conditions.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from late Tuesday morning through 
Tuesday evening for the southeastern half of fire weather zone 152. 
The combination of strong and gusty winds, low relative humidity and 
a high fire danger may create critical fire weather conditions. 

Critical fire weather conditions may also return Friday to a fairly 
large portion of southeast Arizona. Field crews are strongly 
encouraged to monitor subsequent forecasts for additional Fire 
Weather Watch and/or Red Flag Warning issuances.

Otherwise, a few showers may occur across the White Mountains 
Tuesday. There is a chance of showers across the White Mountains 
Friday, then a slight chance of showers as far west as Tucson Friday 
night into Saturday with greater chances of showers east of Tucson. 
Dry conditions are expected to occur area-wide Saturday night into 
Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /350 AM MST/...Main weather concern for most of the 
week will be strong gusty afternoon winds which will bring fire 
weather concerns today and Tuesday and then later in the week. See 
fire weather section below for further details.

After a rather toasty Sunday highs this afternoon will be 3-7 
degrees cooler across most of the area. 

The storm system that brings the gusty winds to the area today and 
tomorrow will also bring a slight chance of showers to the White 
Mountains on Tuesday along with cooler high temperatures. MOS and 
thickness numbers are cooler on Tuesday versus previous runs, so 
went ahead lowered highs a few degrees.

Dry W-NW flow aloft Wednesday and Thursday with highs on Thursday 
around 5 degrees warmer than Tuesday.

A stronger/colder upper level trof will settle in over the state on 
Friday and Saturday. This system will bring rather strong winds to 
the area on Friday, likely in advisory criteria area wide. This 
system will also bring a chance of showers from Tucson east Friday 
night into Saturday along with much cooler high temperatures.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ151-152.

    Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening 
      for AZZ152.

&&

$$

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