Weather Service Report


718 
FXUS65 KTWC 292210
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 PM MST FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS 
WEEKEND FOR TUCSON...SAFFORD AND THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH MID TO 
UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH MONDAY. 
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATED A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULOFORM CLOUDS MAINLY EAST 
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN DESERTS. THESE CLOUDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR 
SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS ADJACENT THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL AMPLIFY 
AND MOVE EWD INTO THE SWRN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...SOME 
INCREASE IN LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR 
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER SAT FOLLOWED BY A MORE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE 
INCREASE ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON SUN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SAT AFTERNOON/ 
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY OCCUR FURTHER SWD ADJACENT THE NEW 
MEXICO BORDER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS 
SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER WWD SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...PERHAPS AS FAR 
WEST AS THE GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS IN GRAHAM COUNTY...AND 
PERHAPS NEAR THE DRAGOON MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY. 

MOST RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A 
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR SO. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE 
FROM BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MON ALLOWING FOR 
SOME INCREASE IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE 
TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WHITE 
MOUNTAINS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WLY/SWLY TUE-THUR IN 
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. THERE 
CONTINUED TO BE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 
ECMWF/GFS/CMC REGARDING THE AMPLIFICATION OF THIS UPPER 
TROUGH DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN ESSENCE...THE ECMWF 
DEPICTED A CONSIDERABLY DEEPER TROUGH VERSUS THE GFS/CMC...AND THE 
GFS DEPICTED THE LEAST AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. CURIOUS TO NOTE THAT THE 
GFS PRODUCED LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER 
THUR AND THUR NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HELD LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
UNTIL FRI. FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE 
CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS SUN AND 
MON TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3-7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. A VERY GRADUAL DECREASE 
IN DAYTIME IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/00Z.                                     
WEST OF KTUS EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A FEW TO 
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL INTO THIS EVENING AND 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR 
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
-TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY EAST OF A KSAD-KFHU LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
SURFACE WIND EARLY THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 
WLY/NWLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. 
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION 
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR 
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER SATURDAY 
THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUNDAY. 
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING MAY BE AS FAR WEST AS THE GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS IN 
GRAHAM COUNTY...AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS THE DRAGOON MOUNTAINS IN 
COCHISE COUNTY. MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH GENERALLY 
TRACE AMOUNTS TO PERHAPS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH 
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE 
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. 
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 
EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. SOMEWHAT STRONGER 
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS WEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS

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