Weather Service Report


767 
FXUS65 KTWC 300352
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 
852 PM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS 
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER 
THE WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH 
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED 
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSED FROM THE 
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EASTWARD. LATEST KEMX RADAR 
IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE STORMS OVER COCHISE AND SOUTHERN 
GRAHAM COUNTY WITH SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED 
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY. THERE WERE SOME 
ISOLATED AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST TOTAL WE 
RECEIVED BEING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES IN SAN MANUEL. HEADING THROUGH 
THE REST OF THE EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 
ZONES AS NUMEROUS RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS PERSIST. THIS IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH LATEST HRRR AS WELL WHICH GRADUALLY TAPERS 
OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...FOR 
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AND ADJACENT PINAL 
COUNTY WE HAVE REDUCED POPS JUST A BIT AS OUTFLOWS ARE MAKING THEIR 
WAY WESTWARD WITHOUT INITIATING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...NO 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXCEPT MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST 
TO ADJUST FOR LATEST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/00Z.                                     
SCT CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AND BKN 
CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 30/06Z. SLOWLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS AFT 
30/06Z...WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 
20K FT AGL BY 30/10Z. AFT 30/17Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL 
AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THRU 
30/06Z...WITH SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 30/17Z. 
MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND 
THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL 
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR 
TAF AMENDMENTS.
                                     
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF 
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FRIDAY...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON NORTH AND 
WEST. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS... 
WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL 
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME 
HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GL
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

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