Weather Service Report


510 
FXUS65 KTWC 170608 CCA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1105 PM MST WED APR 16 2014

CORRECTED FIRE WEATHER SECTION AND W/W/A LINE

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL 
THEN BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR FRIDAY 
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&& 

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS 
OVERNIGHT. THEN THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS WILL PUSH EAST 
ALLOWING FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A 
PACIFIC LOW EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALL IN ALL CURRENT 
FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS 
SE AZ. EXPECT LOCALLY GUSTY WLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND TO AROUND 20 KTS 
THE REST OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KFHU. 
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION 
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL 
OCCUR THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE 
LIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE REGIME...ANY 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR...EXCEPT BREEZY TO PERHAPS 
WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION/ISSUED AT 250 PM MST/...A SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO 
THE NORTH OF THE AREA WAS PRODUCING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS 
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WIND BEING REPORTED IN COCHISE COUNTY. 
THIS GUSTINESS IN COMBINATION WITH DRY CONDITIONS HAD RESULTED IN 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA 
TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT OF 
MORE DETAILS. 

MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING A SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND MOVING IT ACROSS ARIZONA 
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE 
TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. 
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS 
FOR FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES ELSEWHERE FRIDAY NIGHT AND 
SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO 
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH A DROP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME 
TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE 
WEATHER PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM ENTERS THE WESTERN STATES. RIGHT NOW...JUST LOOKS LIKE MORE 
WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA.   

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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