Weather Service Report


399 
FXUS65 KTWC 122049
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 
150 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
APPROACHING SE AZ ON BACK SIDE OF RIDGE AXIS WHICH HAS NOW SHIFTED
TO THE AZ/NM BORDER. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE JUST THICK ENOUGH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT TO HOLD TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE LAST NIGHTS LOW TEMPS.  CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF A
FACTOR ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY PREDICTED. 

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OR BECOMES NWLY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS...NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROUGH APPROACHING THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH COULD BRING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SE AZ
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF IS LEAST IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM OVERALL WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OVER NM AND TX NEXT WEEKEND.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR SE AZ THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 14/00Z.
GENERALLY SKC WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER 12
KTS...FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...EXPECT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...EXPECT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH EASTERN AREAS
SEEING A BIT MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DROZD/LADER

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