Weather Service Report


666 
FXUS65 KTWC 302109
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 
208 PM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS 
EVENING AND MONDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL THEN LIMIT 
THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST OF TUCSON THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOTTER 
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE AROUND THE 
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE 
GETTING A LATER START TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. STILL EXPECTING 
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND WESTERN COCHISE COUNTIES 
TO EXPAND AS OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS SPREADS NORTHWARD. STRONG 
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS TODAY. 
LATEST MODELS SUGGESTED THAT THE DRYING TREND MIGHT BE A LITTLE 
SLOWER THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND 
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES HAS LESS OF AN INFLUENCE THIS FAR SOUTH. 
WILL STILL SHOW A DECREASE IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AFTER 
MONDAY. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED SOME TROPICAL 
INFLUENCE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS A POSSIBLE SYSTEM HELPS PUSH 
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THIS COMING 
WEEKEND. 
  
&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.  CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE 
THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA.  SIMILAR TO 
SATURDAY...SHRA/TSRA AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD 
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  KOLS AND KDUG WILL 
LIKELY BE IMPACTED WITH JUST A CHANCE THE KTUS WILL.  BRIEF MVFR 
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND 
THE STRONGER STORMS.  OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCE SURFACE 
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KTS.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED MONDAY.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH RELATIVELY SIMILAR COVERAGE TO 
SATURDAY...ONLY LESS ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.  PRIME 
CONCERN TODAY IS STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW MOTIONS.  
THIS BASIC IDEA WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH DAILY AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING STORMS EXPECTED.  STARTING MONDAY STORMS WILL TEND TO BE 
MORE FOCUSED OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY ON.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WET 
AND AS IS TYPICAL MAY PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH 
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED.  BEGINNING MONDAY A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP 
ACROSS ARIZONA.  THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS ZONE 
150...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE.   

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                     

&&

$$

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