Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KTWC 020404

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
904 PM MST FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Moist conditions will give way to relatively drier
conditions and the return of some summer heat through the first
half of next week. Another round of monsoon moisture will begin
working its way into the area for increasing thunderstorms the
second half of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Quite a wet day. The storms that caused flooding
for many areas pushed southeast to the Mexican border through the
afternoon hours and have now dissipated. Severe thunderstorms
through Maricopa county a little earlier have generated strong
outflows which we continue to monitor for blowing dust issues in
south central Pinal County, as well as northern portions of the
Tohono O'Odham Nation and western Pima County. Otherwise, the less
favorable storm environment currently developing over our area
should make it difficult for storms to propagate along the
outflows. We have lost a lot of moisture at most levels in a short
time, with precipitable water values falling from around 1.79
inches on the morning sounding to 1.37 on the afternoon sounding.
Latest CIRA layered precipitable water estimates suggest that this
value may be more like 1.1 to 1.2 inches now.

We have sent an update to lower precip chances in most locations
overnight, but we will continue to monitor the outflows from the
Phoenix area to make sure we don't have any midnight surprises.
The latest HRRR trends try to bring in some convection from the
northwest over the next several hours, however it has been
struggling with the situation over the past few runs.


Considerably fewer showers and thunderstorms on Saturday mainly
for areas east of Tucson. Ceilings generally 10-16K ft with
multiple cloud layers above. Gusty winds and brief MVFR conditions
in heavy rainfall are likely near storms where wind gusts could
exceed 30 kts. Otherwise surface winds generally 10 kts or less.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture will begin to diminish across the region
beginning Saturday and continuing through Tuesday, resulting in a
decrease in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms and a slight
bump up in afternoon temperatures. Some moisture will begin to
return to the area Wednesday for a general increase in showers and
thunderstorms once again.


.PREV DISCUSSION...The combination of lingering monsoon moisture
and an approaching mid/upper level trough led to an active day
weather- wise across southeast Arizona. Showers and thunderstorms
will linger into the evening hours for areas mainly southeast and
east of Tucson, before quieter weather moves in for all areas
overnight into the weekend. The approaching trough will nudge the
remaining monsoon moisture to the east and south of the area this
weekend into early next week. Mid range models are in agreement
that high pressure will re-establish itself near the Four Corners
area by mid week with moisture returning to Arizona.





Previous Discussion...Cantin
Aviation/Fire Weather...Lader

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