Weather Service Report


563 
FXUS65 KSLC 231027
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
427 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)...AN ACTIVE NIGHT CONVECTION-
WISE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH...WITH SEVERAL
FAIRLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TOOELE
COUNTY. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS TO BE TAKING AIM ON THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT AFTER
ABOUT 5 AM. AT LEAST ONE SENSOR IN THE DUGWAY AREA RECORDED NEARLY
0.88 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR. WHILE THESE RATES APPEAR TO BE
DECREASING...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOOKING QUITE POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT THIS MORNING ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY ROBUST EARLY FALL-LIKE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST INSTABILILTY TO THE EAST OF MUCH OF
THE AREA BY 21Z OR SO. KEPT THE TRENDS OF DECREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

ANOTHER FALL-LIKE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AFTER A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO
MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z TUESDAY)...THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST 
TUESDAY...THOUGH THE EC AND GFS DISAGREE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE 
LOW AS IT EXITS THE AREA. THE EC CLOSES THE LOW OFF OVER EASTERN 
UTAH...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE THAT EXITS THE AREA MORE 
QUICKLY. AS A RESULT...THE EC SHOWS PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE 
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS 
WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UTAH AS THE WAVE DEPARTS. SO...FOR 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP SLIGHTLY ACROSS CENTRAL 
AND SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT DID NOT INCREASE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO 
MODEL DISAGREEMENT. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MIDWEEK...LEADING TO A WARMING...DRYING 
TREND. THROUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE DETAILS...MODELS 
SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS 
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE SLC TERMINAL...WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL 
LARGELY BE DICTATED BY SHOWERS IN THE AREA...MEANING THAT WIND 
DIRECTION WILL BE ERRATIC. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WINDS WILL GENERALLY 
BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 16Z TO 18Z...AND WILL THEN SHIFT TO 
THE NORTHWEST. THROUGH 21Z...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A 
THUNDERSTORM WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL. IF THIS DOES 
OCCUR...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND 
CENTRAL UTAH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND WILL TAPER OFF 
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL 
NORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. 
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND 
INTO TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TO NORTHERN UTAH. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE MIDWEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 
ANOTHER STORM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT 
WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/HOSENFELD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

Return to Home page


Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu