Weather Service Report


462 
FXUS65 KSLC 061552
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
952 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SECOND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH
FROM WESTERN CANADA AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LOW ORIENTED ALONG THE SOCAL
COASTLINE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CHURN EAST. ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL
JET IS ORIENTING OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN UTAH ATTM...AND COUPLED
WITH MODEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AIDED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT THIS
MORNING AS THE NOSE MOVED IN. THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM VERNAL NORTHWEST TO SNOWVILLE AND IS EXHIBITING
SIGNS OF SLOWING AS MID LEVEL FLOW CONVERGES OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO/WYOMING. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCED ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT IS
ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN UTAH/SW WYOMING/SOUTHERN IDAHO WITHIN
THIS SHEAR ZONE. UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
FOR THESE. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER MOST ALL AREAS AS
WELL AS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS SOUTH OF I-70 FOLLOWING LATEST
TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AND MORE PERIODIC IN NATURE WITH CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE TERRAIN THEN TRACKING NORTHWEST OVER ADJACENT VALLEY
AREAS.

A FEW DEGREES IF COOLING ALOFT AIDED A NET STEEPENING OF LAPSE
RATES OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS...AND ORIENTATION OF UPPER JET AND
DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF
30 PLUS KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WILL LIKELY REALIZE MLCAPE
VALUES OF 500 J/KG ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER REGIONS DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CLOUD COVER AND MORNING PRECIP
WILL INHIBIT MUCH FURTHER WARMING OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. ALTHOUGH
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS PWAT
HOVERING ONLY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE A HALF INCH A WELL...CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG CELLS DEVELOPING FROM THE UINTAS NW TO THE
UT/ID/WY TRIPLE POINT AND POINTS NORTH THROUGH THIS EVE. GUSTY
MICROBURST WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT.

NO OTHER UPDATES MADE OR PLANNED IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...WIND DIRECTION AT THE SLC TERMINAL IS LOW CONFIDENCE
TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT E-NE WINDS AS OF 1530Z WILL
SLOWLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH
SOUTHERLIES MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...ONE
SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IS SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/SCHOENING


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

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