Weather Service Report


321 
FXUS65 KSLC 242132
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
332 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A dry cold front will continue to push into Central
Utah tonight before stalling and washing out over the next 24
hours. High pressure aloft will rebound Sunday, leading to another
round of hot temperatures for the first part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12z Monday)...The surface cold front is near a
KELY-KPVU-KEVW line this afternoon, moving slowly southeast as the
associated trough moves just north of the forecast area. Some
cumulus clouds have developed over the higher terrain out ahead of
the boundary, but have not materialized into showers. Some gusty
winds have been observed both along and behind the front, and will
continue to be gusty at times through the evening before weakening. 

Behind the front, maxes will be much cooler over northern and
central Utah, up to 10F below today's highs and a few degrees below
seasonal normals. Cooling will be much less dramatic over southern
Utah, just a change of a couple of degrees or so. High pressure is
then expected to rebuild Sunday and Monday, resulting in a rapid
warming trend in temperatures with continued dry and stable
conditions. Maxes Monday will run close to 10F above climo.

.LONG TERM (After 12z Monday)...With the mean ridge position
firmly established over the UT/AZ border Monday, and the bulk of
the area existing on the northern periphery of the anticyclonic
circulation, strong subsidence will aid to drive H7 temps into
the +18-19 range by the afternoon. Flow at that time will largely
be westerly and quite dry, as the moisture tap will remain shunted
south, with return flow west in Nevada. As such, looking at dry
and hot conditions areawide with temps pushing 10 to 15 degrees
above climo many areas.

Aforementioned return flow will slowly moisten from the southwest
through Tuesday as the ridge axis jogs east slightly, and the
initial stages of a modest deep layer moisture surge is expected
to occur at that time. Models continue to be a tad slower
advecting this moisture into the forecast area midweek, but
continue to agree that PWAT values will climb towards an inch
Thursday through Friday, with the deepest moisture residing 
across the southern half of the state.

Expect as PWAT trends increase enough to support convection
Tue/Wed the sub-cloud layer will remain quite dry owing towards
cells remaining high based with limited rainfall, gusty winds, and
potential for dry lightning. Bulk if not all of these cells should
remain tide to the terrain due to lack of steering flow beneath
the high. Thereafter however, deeper moisture coupled with a
greater potential of return flow waves passing NE through the area
should trend to support scattered convection with greater
potential of rainfall Thu/Fri.

H7 temp trends plateau Tuesday then gradually fall through day 7,
and with increased cloud cover and RH still looking for slightly
cooler temps Wed on (still above climo however).

&&

.AVIATION...North winds are expected to continue at the SLC terminal
through the night and into Saturday. There is only a 20 percent
chance that winds will become briefly light southerly or light and
variable, mainly in the 10-15z timeframe. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail under mostly clear skies.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A cold front has moved into northern Utah this
afternoon and will continue through central Utah tonight before
weakening. Winds will be breezy in association with the front, but
will weaken overnight and become much lighter tomorrow. Behind the
front, conditions will be dry, stable, and much cooler, with high
temperatures near or slightly below seasonal normals. High pressure
will build back in for Sunday and Monday, allowing temperatures to
rapidly warm. Moisture will start to return to the area on Tuesday,
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms back into the
forecast.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Traphagan/Merrill/Cheng

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