Weather Service Report


162 
FXUS65 KSLC 022151
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
351 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)...A NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OF NV ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT...AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL MORE
OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
AXIS APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...AND
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN UT. UP TO THIS POINT MOST OF THESE
STORMS HAVE REMAINED ANCHORED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER MAY
SEE A SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT WITH TIME WHICH WOULD TAKE THIS
ACTIVITY INTO THE CEDAR CITY...ST GEORGE...ZION AND KANAB AREAS.

MEANWHILE CONVECTION WHICH HAS FIRED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN NV MAY SPREAD INTO FAR WESTERN UT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
HAVE INCLUDED A LOW POP IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. 

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST GRADUAL DRYING IN THE FAR SOUTH WOULD
STILL EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND
EASTWARD...AND AS IT DOES SO SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NV EASTWARD INTO WESTERN UT BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. AS SUCH HAVE
MAINTAINED AN UPWARD TREND IN POPS DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY GIVEN AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. 

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z MONDAY)...THE RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY ON
MONDAY BRINGING WESTERLY FLOW...ABATING PRECIPITATION AND NUDGING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY. THOUGH PW VALUES DROP A BIT
OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CAPE REMAIN TO
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE AFTERNOON CONVECTION PRIMARILY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WESTERLIES PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY...WITH
THE GFS SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UT/ID BORDER...ENCOURAGING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN THIS REGION.

DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP STATEWIDE AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL FURTHER TAMP
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...REDUCE RH VALUES AND ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 
EVENING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z. 

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/VERZELLA/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

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