Weather Service Report


399 
FXUS66 KSGX 081101
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
301 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... 
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE 
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS INTO TUESDAY...STRONGEST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAKER WINDS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PEAK THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR COASTAL FOOTHILLS
AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS WILL PEAK THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG
AS THIS MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES...15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
80S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALMOST TO THE COAST FOR TODAY WITH
WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOME INLAND COASTAL AND WESTERN
VALLEY AREAS NEAR 90. SLIGHT COOLING WILL RETURN NEAR THE COAST
TUESDAY AND SPREAD SLIGHTLY FARTHER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST STILL IN THE 70S.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM IN SOME AREAS WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MIXING FROM THE OFFSHORE WINDS OCCURS AND
COOLER IN THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS. WHERE MIXING HAS BEEN
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE SHOULD BE A FEW RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND COASTAL AND
WESTERN VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN SOME
VERY WARM DRY OFFSHORE EVENTS THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO THE RECORDS
ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS SUCH THAT ANY
RECORDS SET SHOULD BE HIT AND MISS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND
ALONG THE WEST COAST LEAVING A WEAK CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A
SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STILL REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COULD BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFERING IN THE DETAILS AND
TIMING OF JUST WHEN AND HOW THAT MIGHT OCCUR. THE 06Z GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF IN DRAWING THAT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
081000...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AREAS OF STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF
FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE POCKETS OF STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND
LLWS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED ROTORS. LLWS MORE LIKELY AROUND KSNA AND
KONT DURING TIMES WHEN WINDS DO NOT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE... 

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WILL LOWEST DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES FOR VALLEY AND INLAND COASTAL AREAS TODAY AROUND 10
PERCENT WITH A VERY SLIGHT RECOVERY FOR TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF THE LOW HUMIDITIES WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 25 TO
35 MPH NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND BELOW BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS WITH STRONGER GUSTS WILL CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH...SO NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT
OR ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SKYWARN... 
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
 ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SAN BERNARDINO 
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO 
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS 
     NEAR BANNING.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE 
     COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN 
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM

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