Weather Service Report


470 
FXUS66 KSGX 260416
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
915 PM PDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper trough will persist over the area Thursday through
Sunday. This pattern will bring mild weather through the holiday
weekend. The long range outlook through next week is for warm, dry
weather as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Southwest. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Scattered light showers this morning were followed by isolated
afternoon convection over the northern mountains and High Deserts.
Shortly after 2 pm, a thunderstorm formed over the San Bernardino
Mountains and put down a few lightning strikes over the San Gorgonio
Wilderness. Thunderstorms also formed in the High Deserts over
Barstow, west of Ludlow, and along sections of I-40 east of Ludlow.
The activity wound down with the setting sun and the departure of
the upper level trough to the east. Rainfall totals today were light
and under 0.10". A precipiation summary is headlined on our webpage.

It was windy again in the mountains and deserts this afternoon and
evening with gusts from 35 to 45 mph. The winds will diminish
overnight. Lighter winds are forecast Thursday and Friday. 

***From previous discussion***

As the upper low moves away, very weak ridging slowly builds Thu-Fri
before yet another trough moves down the state. This is a weaker
trough and will have limited moisture again. GFS does show some
light rain accumulations inland for the upcoming weekend, but the
ECMWF keeps it dry. Have favored the drier solution at this
time...given the limited moisture expected and low confidence in any
showers this weekend.

The latest run of the GFS keeps the upper trough hanging around
into early next week as it closes off into a low, while the ECMWF
is more progressive. Eventually, both show a ridge building in
from the Pacific by the middle part of next week...and either way
it looks to continue dry with the typical marine layer stratus
impacting the coasts/valleys each night and morning throughout the
period.

&&

.AVIATION... 
260300Z...Coast/Valleys...Areas of BKN-OVC low clouds with bases
around 3500-5000 feet MSL with tops to near 7000 feet MSL. Ceilings
could lower to 2000-3000 feet msl at times overnight, but confidence
is low that coastal TAF sites will be impacted until after 06Z.
Expect partial clearing after 17Z Thu.

Mountains/Deserts...Mountain slopes obscured at times in clouds
above 6000 feet MSL overnight. West winds with gusts of 30-40 knots
will produce weak to moderate up/down drafts over and East of the
mountains through tonight. 

&&

.MARINE... 
800 PM...Wind gusts to around 20 knots this evening. Otherwise, no
hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sun.


&&

.SKYWARN... 
Skywarn activation will not be needed Thursday. 

&&

.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for 
     Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San Diego 
     County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass 
     Near Banning.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Moede/Gregoria
AVIATION/MARINE...PG

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu