Weather Service Report


631 
FXUS66 KSGX 051105
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
400 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA 
THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. REMNANT 
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WILL BYPASS MOST OF SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA TO THE EAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING 
WARMER DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 
LATE NEXT WEEK MOISTURE DRIFTING NORTH FROM THE TROPICS MAY BRING 
MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS MORNINGS INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL 
STORM KEVIN GETTING SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BAJA AND INTO 
ARIZONA. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE 
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM KEVIN WITH ABOUT 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER 
MOVING INTO EASTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS ISN'T 
QUITE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION BUT COULD PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS.

WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND: TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WHERE WE SEE 
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN AVERAGE AS THE LONGWAVE WEST COAST TROUGH 
THAT BROUGHT THE "COOLER" WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK BEGINS TO LIFT 
NORTH. 500 MB HTS OF 582 DM THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 587 DM 
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO BUILD BACK 
INTO SO-CAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES OF WARMING SUNDAY 
COMPARED TO TODAY. ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND REACH 
590 DM FOR ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING. THE HIGHER PRESSURE 
ALOFT ALSO MEANS A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER...SO MARINE LAYER CLOUDS 
WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THEY DID THIS WEEK. 

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES 
WEST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE 
UPSWING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH COASTAL HIGHS IN THE 
80S...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 90S...AND MOUNTAIN HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE 
LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE HIGHS FROM 105-108...AND THE HIGH DESERTS 
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.  
 
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS SEND A SURGE OF 
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM WHAT IS NOW JUST A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 550 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE TO 
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE NORTHWEST 
PARALLEL TO THE BAJA PENINSULA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEAST 
FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO 
NORTHWEST MEXICO MAY DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION LATE 
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND THE GEM ARE BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO. IN 
CONTRAST...THE GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND KEEPS NEARLY ALL OF THE  
MOISTURE MUCH FARTHER WEST OVER THE OCEAN. WILL KEEP THE LONG RANGE 
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUE TO EVALUATE MODEL TRENDS 
WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION... 050900Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 2200-2500 
FT MSL AND TOPS TO 3200 FT MSL WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH INTO ORANGE 
COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE THIS MORNING. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS 
STRATUS MAY STAY OUT OF KONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOCAL VIS 3 TO 
5 SM POSSIBLE WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE VALLEYS. 
CLOUDS CLEARING TO THE COAST 15-18Z. PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 1500-
2000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 06/04Z...MAINLY ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY 
COAST. OTHERWISE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN 
MORNING.
 
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA FL200 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS 
THROUGH SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 210 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY. 

&&

.BEACHES... 215 AM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN 
TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AND BUILD INTO 
SUNDAY...PEAKING AT 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 20 SEC.  SURF WILL BUILD 
TO 3-5 FEET BY LATE TODAY...PEAKING SUN AND MONDAY AROUND 4 TO 6 
FEET WITH SETS TO 8 FEET ALONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. THE 
SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF SOUTHWEST 
AND SOUTH SWELLS. STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL ACCOMPANY 
THE HIGHER SURF...CREATING DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS OVER THE 
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE 
BEACHES OF ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES AND IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM 
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN... 
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY   
     FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS

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