Weather Service Report


134 
FXUS66 KMTR 071805
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1005 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TODAY INTO
MONDAY PRODUCING OFFSHORE WINDS AND POTENTIAL RECORD WARMTH
ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN BY
MIDWEEK BUT HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL WITH CONTINUED DRY AND
MILD WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PST SUNDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER DAY
EXPECTED WITH A MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT (SFO TO WMC OF OVER 12
MB), STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, SUNNY SKIES, AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH MANY SPOTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN JUST A BIT MORE
TOMORROW WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE READINGS A FEW ADDITIONAL
DEGREES. DEFINITELY COULD SEE A FEW RECORD HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SURFACE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO SOME GUSTY WINDS AT MID
AND HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WHICH AGREES WELL WITH THE KOAK
SOUNDING. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE GUSTS ARE NOT MAKING IT DOWN INTO
METRO LOCATIONS.

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK, SO NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE THE COAST IS CLEAR WITH 8 MB
OFFSHORE GRADIENT FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO SFO. THIS IS PRODUCING
SOME STRONG WINDS IN THE HILLS WITH MT DIABLO SUSTAINED AT 39 MPH
AND GUSTING TO 46 MPH. MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS WILL STAY IN THE
HILLS ABOVE 2500 FEET AND NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
MOST PRONE PLACE FOR SOME MORNING OFFSHORE GUSTS WILL BE THE EAST
BAY HILLS AND SAN MATEO COASTLINE ALONG HIGHWAY 1 AROUND PACIFICA.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE ONLY FOG BEING REPORTED SO FAR AT
SANTA ROSA AND NOVATO. WILL EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES
THROUGH SUNRISE BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. WORTH NOTING A SIGNIFICANT
FOG BANK OFFSHORE OF POINT ARENA BUT WITH EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
NOT CONCERNED ABOUT THAT MAKING A BEELINE TOWARDS THE BEACHES
TODAY.

CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER IN STORE FROM THE NORTH
BAY...PENINSULA AND SOUTH BAY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE CENTRAL
COAST TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING.
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS 586 DM HIGH BUILDING OVER CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 18 CELSIUS. THIS SYNOPTIC SET-UP
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS WELL.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN PLACE ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THE RETURN OF SOME STRATUS TO THE COAST. 

OTHERWISE MID AND LONG RANGE MODELS NOW ON BOARD IN SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUDDENLY...THINGS ARE LOOKING
EERILY DRY FOR FEBRUARY AND HAVING A HARD TIME PIN-POINTING WHEN
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH A CONTINUED STAGNANT AIRMASS BELOW AN INVERSION
COULD BRING HAZY CONDITIONS TODAY...ESP SJC WHERE PARTICULATE
MATTER IS HIGHEST AND MAY RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS.

LLJ IS NOW AT ITS PEAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY AREA WITH MODERATE
LLWS...NORTHEAST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 KT IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT LEVEL
MSL THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL DIMINISH IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS ALOFT VEERING TO SOUTHERLY AS
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHIFT NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH MAY CONTINUE AT
STS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONCERN THAT SOME MIXING COULD
ALLOW A FEW NORTHEAST GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT AT OAK AND SFO IN THE
AFTERNOON. 

FOR MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT MODELS SHOW
EASTERLIES BLO 10 KTS. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE SFC
WITH MODERATE LLWS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WHETHER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954 
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:47 AM PST SUNDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MAKE FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST. SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECAY TODAY BUT BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER BUILDING SWELL TRAIN ON
MONDAY. THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK
GENERATING SWELL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: WEYGAND
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA

Return to Home page


Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu