Weather Service Report


511 
FXUS66 KMTR 022353
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
453 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...MUGGY DAY FOR OUR AREA
TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS SEEING DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S WHILE THE
KOAK SOUNDING THIS MORNING CAME IN AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF. AS
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IN
MANY SPOTS THANK TO MORE CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...A FEW SPOTS IN THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY ARE RUNNING NEARLY 15 DEGREES LESS COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. FIRST FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES THE NEXT 8 HOURS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT KMUX RADAR HAS
JUST LIGHT RETURNS INDICATED FOR SAN BENITO AND SE MONTEREY
COUNTY AND IN MOST CASES THAT IS LIKELY JUST VIRGA. MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR MOST OF THE DAY HAD BEEN SHOWING THE FOCUS SWITCHING MORE TO
THE NORTH BAY BY THE EVENING. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER WITH THE 20Z VERSION NOW KEEPING IT ALMOST ENTIRELY
DRY. WILL JUST KEEP A MENTION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS GOING IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWER CHANCES
SHOULD END BY SUNSET AND NOT BE IN OUR CWA FOR FRIDAY AS THE FOCUS
SHIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.

OUTSIDE OF THAT...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE CONTINUED COOLING
AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS PLUS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE.
HIGHS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL RANGE FROM
60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. THESE NEAR NORMAL VALUES ARE NOW FORECAST TO HOLD
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF JULY. 

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:54 PM PDT THURSDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. A BATCH OF
HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY AROUND MONTEREY BAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT TO THE TERMINALS.
VERY SHALLOW MARINE/FOG DECK IS EVIDENT OFFSHORE AND WILL LIKELY
IMPACT KMRY AND KSNS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
SHALLOW NATURE ITS LIKELY TO SNEAK THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE AND
IMPACT KOAK TOWARDS MORNING BUT MAY MISS KSFO. FOR NOW HEDGED BETS
AND TAF WILL SHOW A MORNING CIG FOR KSFO. WILL FOLLOW THAT TREND
FOR EVENING UPDATES AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. ANY MORNING CIGS WILL
MIX OUT BY 16-17Z WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUING BUT LESS
CHANCE FOR -SHRA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING. CANT RULE
OUT A SPRINKLE BUT NO IMPACTS TO KSFO EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
AN EARLY MORNING CIG BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SHOULD CIGS
DEVELOP THEY WILL BE GONE BY 16-17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
 
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A STRAY SPRINKLE OR SHOWER POSSIBLE
THROUGH 03Z...THEN A FOG BANK OVER MONTEREY BAY WILL MOVE INTO
KMRY LATER THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY KSNS OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS TO
MIX OUT BY 17Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: CW


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