718 FXUS66 KMTR 281009 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 309 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 304 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Breezy and cool today with only a few passing showers. Southerly winds increase Friday morning ahead of the next storm that will bring rain and scattered thunderstorms to the region Friday into Saturday. Drying trend Sunday as high pressure builds and lasts through the middle of next week with a return to dry and seasonably mild weather. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 304 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Light to locally moderate showers will move through the region today in the wake of last night's cold front and under the influence of the trough building to the north. Expect cloudy and cool conditions between the showers through the day, with showers becoming more isolated into the the evening. Expect a brief pause in rain chances Thursday night, but the next system arrives Friday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 304 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Another quicker-moving cold front and low pressure move into the region along the current trough pattern. While the cold front moves inland, the low looks to remain along the coast line and begin to slowly progress southward. This places light warm-sector showers in the North Bay starting early Friday with the main rain band along the cold front moving inland late Friday morning and into that afternoon. Breezy to gusty winds build ahead the front and linger into that night. Wind Advisories have been issued for the San Francisco Peninsula Coast, Santa Cruz Mountains, East Bay Hills, coastal Monterey Bay, the Big Sur Coast and San Benito Co. Thunderstorm and scattered shower chances move in behind the main rain band. The spread of these post frontal rains still spread across the Bay Area and Central Coast Friday night through Saturday evening, with storm chances peaking around 25% during that time frame. Shower activity begins to dissipate into Saturday night, rain exiting Sunday as the low continues to move south. Rainfall totals from early Friday through Sunday morning look to range from: -0.5" to 1" for most areas -1" to 1.25" for coastal low lands and interior North Bay -1.25" to 2" for higher elevations along the coast - and above 2" for the highest peaks along the coast with some isolated areas on the Big Sur Coast reaching above 3" This system still offers some variability, so be sure to keep checking in. After Sunday, dry weather returns as a ridge pattern forms over the California Coast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 PM PDT Wed Mar 27 2024 A cold front is currently making its way through the heart of the Bay Area with APC and STS already seeing clearing. The cold front will continue to drop to the southeast, bringing MVFR ceilings and rain to the rest of the terminals. Winds will be breezy out of the west tomorrow afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with breezy southerly flow as the cold front moves over the terminal. Winds will become westerly and rain shower activity will promptly cease behind the cold front. Winds will be breezy out of the west tomorrow afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southwesterly flow at MRY and VFR with northerly flow at SNS. Rain showers are beginning to close in on the terminals with the cold frontal passage expected by 11Z. Winds will become breezy out of the northwest after the cold front passes with breezy westerly flow prevailing by tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 304 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Today will be a transition day between the exiting cold front and the approaching low pressure system with gentle to moderate westerly/northwesterly breezes and infrequent rain showers. Tomorrow's system will bring strong southerly winds with gale force gusts possible, especially for the southernmost marine zones, allowing for wave heights to continue to build through Friday. There is a 25% chance for scattered thunderstorms over the waters Friday morning-Saturday night. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ509- 512-515-517-518-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay. Gale Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Murdock LONG TERM....Murdock AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |