Weather Service Report


445 
FXUS66 KMTR 041144
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
344 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO OUR AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION SO FAR THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME -- UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SAN FRANCISCO IS THE WARM SPOT AT
THIS HOUR WITH 50 DEGREES.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE CWA INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. 850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE 13-14C RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER 5
DEGREES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. THOSE WARM READINGS WILL CARRY
THROUGH TO AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW THE WARMING WILL MAKE
IT DOWN TO LOCAL BEACHES WITH 65 TO 70 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOWER 80S COULD EVEN OCCUR IN MONTEREY
COUNTY.

THE RIDGE WILL HEAD TO THE EAST STARTING NEXT TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GEM HAS
THE PATH RIGHT TO THE OREGON COAST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXTENDING
FROM OUR CWA UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. GFS (BOTH OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE LOW GREATLY
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. RAINFALL OFF THE GFS
SOLUTIONS IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

DUE TO SOME LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER FROM
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE DAY 7 TO 10 TIME FRAME...BEST
COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE POPS. WILL FEEL
BETTER ONCE IT GETS WITHIN 5 DAYS. UPSHOT IS ALL MODELS DO BRING
RAIN TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 AM PST WEDNESDAY... LITTLE CHANGE OVER
YESTERDAY MORNING...ALBEIT THIS MORNING IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH SKC AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TODAY. W-NW WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 7-14KT AT SF/MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS AOA 22ZWED
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 04ZTHU. FOR TMRW NITE... LIGHTER WINDS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW PTS MAY ENCOURAGE FG/BR IN NORTH BAY INTERIOR
VLYS. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:28 AM PST WEDNESDAY...AN EAST PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL LEAD TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM PT
REYES AND NORTH TODAY AND LIGHTER NORTH OR VARIABLE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. MIXED SWELL BEGINS IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

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