Weather Service Report


718 
FXUS66 KMTR 281009
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
309 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Breezy and cool today with only a few passing showers. Southerly 
winds increase Friday morning ahead of the next storm that will 
bring rain and scattered thunderstorms to the region Friday into 
Saturday. Drying trend Sunday as high pressure builds and lasts 
through the middle of next week with a return to dry and 
seasonably mild weather.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Light to locally moderate showers will move through the region today 
in the wake of last night's cold front and under the influence of 
the trough building to the north. Expect cloudy and cool
conditions between the showers through the day, with showers 
becoming more isolated into the the evening. Expect a brief pause 
in rain chances Thursday night, but the next system arrives Friday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Another quicker-moving cold front and low pressure move into the 
region along the current trough pattern. While the cold front moves 
inland, the low looks to remain along the coast line and begin to 
slowly progress southward. This places light warm-sector showers 
in the North Bay starting early Friday with the main rain band 
along the cold front moving inland late Friday morning and into 
that afternoon. Breezy to gusty winds build ahead the front and 
linger into that night. Wind Advisories have been issued for the 
San Francisco Peninsula Coast, Santa Cruz Mountains, East Bay 
Hills, coastal Monterey Bay, the Big Sur Coast and San Benito Co.

Thunderstorm and scattered shower chances move in behind the main 
rain band. The spread of these post frontal rains still spread 
across the Bay Area and Central Coast Friday night through Saturday 
evening, with storm chances peaking around 25% during that time 
frame. Shower activity begins to dissipate into Saturday night, rain 
exiting Sunday as the low continues to move south.



Rainfall totals from early Friday through Sunday morning look to 
range from:

-0.5" to 1" for most areas
-1" to 1.25" for coastal low lands and interior North Bay
-1.25" to 2" for higher elevations along the coast
- and above 2" for the highest peaks along the coast with some 
isolated areas on the Big Sur Coast reaching above 3"


This system still offers some variability, so be sure to keep 
checking in.

After Sunday, dry weather returns as a ridge pattern forms over the 
California Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM PDT Wed Mar 27 2024

A cold front is currently making its way through the heart of the
Bay Area with APC and STS already seeing clearing. The cold front
will continue to drop to the southeast, bringing MVFR ceilings 
and rain to the rest of the terminals. Winds will be breezy out of
the west tomorrow afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with breezy southerly flow as the 
cold front moves over the terminal. Winds will become westerly and 
rain shower activity will promptly cease behind the cold front. 
Winds will be breezy out of the west tomorrow afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southwesterly flow at 
MRY and VFR with northerly flow at SNS. Rain showers are beginning 
to close in on the terminals with the cold frontal passage expected 
by 11Z. Winds will become breezy out of the northwest after the cold 
front passes with breezy westerly flow prevailing by tomorrow 
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Today will be a transition day between the exiting cold front and
the approaching low pressure system with gentle to moderate
westerly/northwesterly breezes and infrequent rain showers.
Tomorrow's system will bring strong southerly winds with gale
force  gusts possible, especially for the southernmost marine
zones,  allowing for wave heights to continue to build through
Friday. There  is a 25% chance for scattered thunderstorms over
the waters Friday  morning-Saturday night.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ509-
     512-515-517-518-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for SF Bay N 
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Friday 
     for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Friday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Friday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu