Weather Service Report


760 
FXUS66 KMTR 301204
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
504 AM PDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Onshore flow will continue to bring cooler air into
far inland valleys through the weekend and into early next week.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals for the Fourth of July
Holiday Weekend with seasonal temperatures likely persisting
through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:52 AM PDT Thursday...The Fort Ord Profiler
indicates a marine layer depth of around 1500 feet, and the latest
satellite fog product imagery shows coastal stratus from the
Golden Gate south, and also extending locally into the San
Francisco Bay area and well into the Monterey Bay area and into
the entire Salinas Valley. Temperatures are running steady
compared to yesterday morning at this time with readings in the
mid to upper 50s at most area airports. The onshore surface
pressure gradients are still moderate to strong with 2.9 mb
between SFO and SAC and 5.7 from SFO to LAS. 

High pressure aloft is weakening as an upper level trough settles
in over the western states. This factor combined with the
continued onshore flow will allow cooler air to filter inland.
This will result in cooler temperatures through the weekend, and
also persisting into next week as the trough deepens somewhat.
High temperatures early next week are forecast to be at or below
seasonal normals...upper 50s and 60s at the coast, to the 70s and
80s around the Bay, to the mid 90s well inland. Aside from
occasional night and morning coastal fog/drizzle, conditions will
be dry through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 4:59 AM PDT Thursday...For 12z tafs. Low clouds
are filling in across the region this morning with a mixed bag of
LIFR to MVFR cigs over area terminals. The strong northerly
gradient has kept cigs out of KSTS but they can not be ruled out.
Have included a tempo group from 12z to 16z for low vsbys and
cigs. A tempo group was also added for KSFO from 15z to 18z from
MVFR cigs anticipated around sunrise. Low clouds will scatter out
between 17z-18z this morning. Light to moderate winds will persist
through the morning. Winds will increase to the 10 to 20 kt range
this afternoon.

Vicinity of KSFO...Cigs have developed on the east side of the bay
affecting KOAK at this time. Low clouds may fill in over the bay
affecting KSFO around sunrise today. Low confidence. Cigs will
scatter out around 18z. Winds will remain light through the
morning the increase to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Cigs anticipated to impact operations
Thursday morning thru at least 17z this morning as low clouds
linger over the southern portion of the bay.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Low cigs over KMRY and KSNS kmry and
ksns thru at least 18z. Under this pattern they could linger all
day at kmry. Expect an early return Thursday evening.

&&

.MARINE...as of 2:31 AM PDT Thursday...A strong surface pressure
gradient persisting along the california coast will maintain steep
seas and gusty northwesterly winds over the offshore coastal
waters through thursday evening. the surface pressure gradient is
anticipated to weaken thursday evening bringing lighter winds to
the inner coastal waters and improving sea conditions for the
weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...SF Bay from 12 PM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims
AVIATION/MARINE: CW


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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu