652 FXAK67 PAJK 231223 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 423 AM AKDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .SHORT TERM...Chances of rain showers continue as a low over the central Gulf treks east, sending waves of showers northward. Most of these waves are less than impressive. A lack of upper level support, combined with lingering northerly outflow is eroding away at what precipitation does manage to advance into the panhandle. Consequently, while the chance for showers will be present through the day for much of the area - with the highest chances in the southern panhandle, am not expecting anything significant in the way of precipitation totals. Showers will become more numerous over the S through the morning hours as the low tracks closer, and a somewhat stronger wave tries to push into the area. Think that the wave will have trouble moving through the central panhandle, but did include the chances for a few showers as far north as Juneau later in the day, as the possibility does exist that orographic forcing may prove sufficient to overcome the synoptic- level challenges to some degree. Despite these precip chances, still think that the N half of the panhandle will likely see some clearing of skies by late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening. Chances of precipitation diminish late tonight across the central panhandle as the low disintegrates, with the residual circulation potentially meandering into the southern panhandle or the coast mountains on Wednesday and supporting a few lingering showers in these areas. Anticipate small craft conditions for wave heights for much of the outer coastal waters. Otherwise, moderate strength northerly winds for most of the inner channels, though Clarence Strait may flip out of the S Tuesday night as the low itself arrives. Minimal changes were made to the forecast. Increased cloud cover over the S panhandle through Tuesday night, and adjusted wind direction in Clarence Strait, along with a few minor changes to surrounding areas. Extended the chances of precipitation a little bit further north into Juneau for Tuesday afternoon, but maintained them on the lower end of the scale, and still think that there's a good chance some clearing will take place across much of the northern panhandle - especially Tuesday evening onwards. .LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Saturday morning / Upper level low exiting gulf moving into British Columbia Wednesday, a minor ridge moves into the area. The next big frontal band will spread into the area especially the southern panhandle Saturday and into Sunday. Mid to long range forecast is that a system will sweep into the panhandle from the south. Have gone with a drier forecast into Thursday and into Saturday, so dried the forecast some, and decreased the clouds some. Break is only 2 days it looks like rain will be returning to the forecast over the weekend. Damp weather still likely into early next week, however there is a trend that most of the wet weather will be over the south with drier conditions farther north. Larger changes at the later period may be limited as model discrepancies and smaller feature has national center leaning towards a ensemble solution. && .AVIATION...Primarily VFR to MVFR conditions across the panhandle through Tuesday, with a fairly high cloud ceiling which will slowly give way to clearing skies Tuesday evening across the much of the northern half of the area. While occasional periods of IFR may occur as ceilings lower due to a passing shower (especially in the southern half of the area), expect these to be the exception, as opposed to the norm. Winds largely remain in the 5 to 10 kt range, though winds up to 15 kt kt are possible for southern panhandle sites. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM....Bezenek AVIATION...PRB Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau |