Weather Service Report


870 
FXAK67 PAJK 302331
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
331 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...Northerly outflow continues across the panhandle in
the wake of an upper level trough. Several land obs sites are
reporting some gusts of 25 to 30 mph while marine obs are showing
mostly small craft winds across the northern and central inner
channels today. Meanwhile the trough is currently over the
extreme southern panhandle bringing showers to Hyder, Ketchikan,
and Klawock. Rainfall amounts have been just enough to get
everything wet before the showers move on. Otherwise most of the
panhandle is enjoying a sunny day with temps mostly in the 50s for
most places.

For tonight into tomorrow, the general story is improving
conditions. The trough over the southern panhandle will gradually
head off to the SE taking its showers and clouds with it. Once
that clears out of the area most places will then enjoy mostly
clear skies with a few high or mid level clouds popping up here
and there through the next 24 hours.

Winds will also be on the diminishing trend. The cold air mass in
Canada that is partly fueling the outflow winds will be moving off
to the east. In addition, the departing of the southern panhandle
trough will weaken pressure gradients across the panhandle. Many
of the small craft winds that are currently in the inner channels
will drop down to 15 kt by late tonight and will remain low into
tomorrow. Northern Lynn Canal will likely hang on to some higher
winds into Sat morning but even there winds will be diminishing.

Not many changes to the overall forecast. Main changes were
bringing down some of the winds in the inner channels tonight.
Some temperatures for tomorrow were also raised using a more
persistent forecast to account for plenty of sunshine tomorrow
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Ridge of high pressure over the gulf through the
weekend. The front looks to be developing a wave about 55N that
will track slowly towards Haida Gwaii. The front will spread rain
north into the southern panhandle, expect the northern extent to
be be Frederick Sound. Showers will linger over the southern
part of the panhandle to Wednesday and depending the on the model
solution a chance may move to the northern panhandle.

Model agreement is generally good to the start of next week so
confidence is above average. However as the time continues onward
through the week models disagree about a feature to develop over
the central Pacific, primarily on the track. As such have relied
on a blend of the Ensemble Means. 

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ025.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-043. 
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-031>034-041-042-051. 
&&

$$

EAL/Bezenek

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