892 FXUS66 KSTO 192027 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 127 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024 .Synopsis... Warm and dry weather continues into early next week. Locally breezy at times, especially in the Delta. Cooler temperatures return by Tuesday as off-shore troughing influences the area. && .Discussion... Afternoon GOES-18 Satellite analysis reveals mostly clear skies across interior NorCal. On-shore flow is being observed around the Delta this afternoon, which is aiding in slight cooling and at times locally breezy winds, with a recent observation of 18 mph recorded at Travis AFB. A weak vorticity center has moved inland over SoCal this afternoon, and should keep most shower chances south of our area. However, recent SPC Mesoanalysis suggests some nosing of 500-1000 j/kg of CAPE values to move into the southeast foothills of the Sierra later this afternoon. Lift and moisture will be the biggest factors that could inhibit any thunderstorm development for our area. An isolated thunderstorm, mainly in Tuolumne county, cannot be completely ruled out this evening. Some bubbling Cumulus clouds are being observed in Mariposa county near Wawona, so we will continue to monitor for any development in our area as we move through the day. The upper level-ridge will reamplify as we move through the weekend and into early next week. High temperatures will climb to 10-15 degrees above climatological normal this weekend through Monday. High temperatures will be mid to upper 80s through the Central Valley, with mid 60s to mid 70s for the higher elevations. On Monday, we have an outside chance of breaking 90, as the National Blend of Models suggests a 10-40% probability of exceeding 90, mainly along the I-5 corridor from Arbuckle to Orland having the highest chances. HeatRisk remains in the Minor category during this period for interior NorCal. Wood && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)... Conditions will begin to cool as a shortwave trough begins to slide over Northern California, as low pressure systems move into the Pacific NW and a secondary system off the far Southern California coast. By Wednesday, precipitation chances return to the mountains Wednesday with greater chances Thursday through Friday afternoon (20-40%). Storm totals continue to be light with minimal travel impacts expected if any. High temperatures return to slightly below normal Wednesday into the weekend. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs. Surface wind mainly below 12 kts except vicinity of Delta SWly sustained wind up to 15-20 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ |