Weather Service Report


663 
FXUS66 KSTO 010433
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
933 PM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm weather expected this week as high pressure strengthens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The high pressure ridge shifts a little to the southeast on
Wednesday. This will flatten the ridge a little over the northern
areas and may bring some slight synoptic cooling along with some
high clouds over the northern areas during the day. This might be
enough to keep temperatures a little below record highs. The models 
are indicating the possibility of some showers or isolated
thunderstorms just to the north and northwest of Shasta County
late in the day.

Further south the shift should allow for a little better
influence coming through the delta all day and stronger flow up
the Sacramento valley. 850 mb temperatures cool slightly so only
minor synoptic cooling is expected for some of the well inland
areas. The Sacramento area might top out in the upper 90s due to
the stronger flow through the delta and the slight synoptic 
cooling.

On Thursday weaker airflow over the interior with a continued
very warm airmass over the area should have many temperatures
back up around 100 again.

An upper level low forming well off the coast the next couple of
days will move close enough to the coast to enhance the ridge over
the region and warm temperatures up slightly warmer than todays
highs. Winds within the valley will be from the northwest during
the day and there will be no delta influence. This will help to
increase temperatures over todays highs.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

Models shift strong upper ridge into the Great Basin Saturday as 
upper low approaches the SoCal coast. Some instability depicted
over the Sierra Nevada Saturday to support a slight chance of
afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Low is forecast to track across
California Sunday into Monday but models differ with exact track
and how quickly it progresses through. Thus forecast confidence
decreases during this period but pattern suggests at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for Interior NorCal. 
Models then point to a drier southwesterly flow regime for
Tuesday. Cooling expected through the extended forecast period
with Central valley highs lowering to the upper 80s to lower 90s
by Tuesday.
&&

.AVIATION...

Upr high ovr NorCal with acyc flow alf bcmg SWly Wed as high 
movs E into Grt Basin. VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs with
sfc wnds genly lgt exc lcl SWly gsts to 25 kts poss thru Delta
aftns into eve. In Cntrl Vly, aftn density altitudes gtr than 
2500 ft.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu