Weather Service Report

FXUS66 KSTO 292246

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
246 PM PST SUN NOV 29 2015

Another cold morning Monday. A few showers are possible across
northern portions of the area Monday and Wednesday. The next
storm system arrives Thursday with wet and windy weather.


Widespread freezing temperatures occurred across the central
Valley this morning with another cold morning expected Monday
given clear skies and good radiational cooling. Lows will range
from the single digits and teens in the mountains to near or a few
degrees below freezing in the central Valley. Have not issued
another freezing warning for the Valley given most locations
dropped below the 32 degree mark this morning. Shortwave currently
near 130W will weaken as it encounters the blocking ridge
currently across West Coast. A few showers will be possible on
Monday, mainly across northern portions of the area but only light
accumulations expected under these showers. 12Z ECMWF hints at
some showers further south across the Delta and southern valley
but appears to be the outlier among latest hi-res solutions, GFS,
and NAM. For now, have kept any chance of precip north of
Clearlake to Quincy line. Rest of the area will remain dry. Dry
weather will rule on Tuesday as ridge briefly rebuilds over the
region. Temperatures will warm a few degrees from Monday to
Tuesday. Another shortwave will move across the area Wednesday in
advance of next major system that will move across the area in the
extended. Wave is fairly moisture-starved so only expecting a few
showers with little to no accumulations across far northern
portions of the area.



A wet and windy weather system will move through the region on
Thursday, with perhaps some lingering precipitation on Friday. The
GFS remains to be a bit faster with this system than the ECMWF,
but otherwise the models are in good agreement. This system
appears to be a bit warmer than last week's, and wetter especially
for lower elevations. Accumulating snow is expected above 5000 ft,
with up to a foot above 6000 ft. The most significant difference
with this storm is that it will pack some wind, with gusts around
40 mph possible across the Valley. This combined with moderate
rain could bring down tree branches, causing local power outages.
Additionally, fallen leaves could clog gutters and drains and
cause slippery conditions on roads.

Drier weather is expected by Friday (depending on how quickly the
system moves through). Another weaker system will approach the
region next Sunday, but confidence is low on the handling of that




VFR conditions with generally light winds the next 24 hours.



.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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