Weather Service Report


583 
FXUS66 KSTO 140608
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1008 PM PST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS... 
Dry and mild weather through early next week with well above
normal temperatures. Wetter and cooler weather pattern expected
middle to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High clouds are streaming over NorCal this evening with light
winds. Expect some patchy fog towards morning, but clouds and
increasing north winds towards morning will limit coverage.
Current forecast is on track and no update will be needed.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region as a low
pressure area moves to the north of the area. Some light showers
may occur over the far northern interior areas in the mountains of
Shasta County and places to the north on Sunday. Patches of fog
may form again over the eastern portions of San Joaquin Valley
again by Sunday morning before temperatures warm.

Temperatures will warm the next couple of days peaking on Monday
and Tuesday. Near record and record temperatures are expected during 
that time period throughout all the interior. Some temperatures
may be come close to record highs on Sunday from around 
Sacramento southward but are expected to end up a couple of 
degrees shy.

RECORDS TO WATCH MONDAY. 
Redding Airport.....79 set in 2015 
Red Bluff...........79 set in 1977
Sacramento..........76 set in 1977
Sacramento Exec.....76 set in 1977 
Stockton............76 set in 1977
Modesto.............75 set in 1991

RECORDS TO WATCH TUESDAY. 
Redding Airport.....78 set in 2015 
Red Bluff...........77 set in 1957
Sacramento..........76 set in 1977
Sacramento Exec.....75 set in 2007 
Stockton............76 set in 1977
Modesto.............78 set in 1943

Northerly winds are expected each day through Monday. The winds
look to be the strongest during the day on Sunday reaching 15 to
25 mph over the western portions of the valley and coastal range 
with higher gusts. For today and Monday winds should peak out at 
15 mph or less within the valley. Sunday night northeast to east
gusty winds will develop over favored canyons and peaks for the
western slopes. 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

Medium range models are coming into better agreement with timing
and track of next system which brings widespread precipitation to
Interior NorCal Wed/Thu. Early QPF amounts look like up to a few
tenths in southern portions of the Central Valley to over .75 inch
in the North, with 1 to 2+ inches of liquid equivalent possible in
portions of the foothills/mountains. Snow levels will initially be
above 6000 feet Wed but lower to below 4000 in the north, 5000
feet in the south, Wed night into Thu. Potential for significant
snow in the Western Plumas/Sierra Nevada mountains with impacts
to travel. Breezy to windy conditions over Interior NorCal
possible Wednesday night as the front moves through. Precip turns
showery Thursday behind the front. Additional weak waves progged
across far northern portions of CA Fri/Sat to keep a slight chance
of showers over the northern mountains, otherwise remainder of
forecast area looks dry days 6/7.

&&
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions this evening with light winds. Expect morning
fog/stratus to develop during early morning hours causing periods
of MVFR/IFR/LIFR visibilities and ceilings for the southern
Sacramento Valley into northern San Joaquin Valley between 10-17z.
Northerly winds will start to increase around 17z with sustained
winds between 10-20 kts and gusts 20-30 kts possible in the valley
during afternoon/evening hours.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu