Weather Service Report


019 
FXUS66 KSTO 191651
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
951 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Synopsis...
Lingering Sierra showers/t-storms are possible through the
weekend, otherwise, dry & warmer temperatures into early next
week. Cooler and wetter weather arrives middle of next week into
next weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Upper low is near the coast between San Francisco and San Diego.
This has caused light east winds to develop with smoke from the
King Fire spreading west into the Sacramento valley. Most of this
smoke is elevated above 3000 feet which is the inversion level.
However...closer to the fire in foothill and mountain locations
the smoke is at the surface. Increasing westerly surface flow
along with afternoon mixing will clear most of the valley smoke
out...but it will remain over foothill locations. Outside of fires
skies will be sunny with near normal temperatures today.

.Previous Discussion... 
Ridging over the west coast will bring warmer temperatures through
the weekend with daytime highs near to several degrees above
normal. Today and Saturday will be the warmest days in the seven
day forecast as valley highs range upper 80s to upper
90s...mountain highs ranging in the 70s and 80s. A closed low will
linger to the south of our region bringing the possibility of
showers/thunderstorms over the Sierra today into Sunday. By
Monday, that closed low will exit eastward as a stronger offshore
low approaches the west coast. Dry weather with gradual cooling is
forecast for Monday and Tuesday as daytime highs are near to
slightly above normal.

Smoke from the King Fire will continue to impact the region today
and tomorrow over portions of the Sierra including the adjacent
foothills. Smoke could sink into the valley (mostly along the
extreme eastern edge of the Southern Sacramento and San Joaquin
valleys) after today when the winds shift.   JBB


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Models in good agreement that a stronger trough will impact the
region in the extended forecast. Tuesday should remain dry but
temperatures will be near to slightly below normal as the trough
approaches. By Wednesday, temperatures will drop well below
normal, especially over higher terrain. In addition, the chance
for showers will start impacting the NorCal coastline by early
Wednesday. Showers should spread over the Coastal range into the
Sacramento valley late Wednesday morning. The chance of showers
will continue to spread eastward and southward encompassing the
majority of our CWA Thursday and Friday as cooler temperatures
persist.  JBB

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions the next 24 hours all TAF sites. Isolated Sierra
crest thunderstorms south of Tahoe. Winds mainly north to east
generally below 15 knots. 


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





Return to Home page


Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu