Weather Service Report


654 
FXUS65 KREV 250947
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
247 AM PDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Melting high elevation Sierra snowpack will continue to lead to 
minor flooding near creeks, streams and rivers through the 
Memorial Day weekend and into most of next week. Temperatures will
cool a few degrees today and Friday before warming up again into 
early next week. Breezy winds will prevail this afternoon. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A weak surface frontal boundary is providing areas of low clouds 
and a band of showers across Pershing County this morning. This 
band will press eastward and diminish through the morning as the 
upper trough progresses eastward. Breezy west to northwest winds 
will remain in the wake of the front this morning and afternoon. 
Wind gusts in the 25-30 mph range will make for choppy conditions 
across areas lakes and anyone out on lake waters should exercise 
caution today. 

Temperatures will cool a few degrees today and Friday but will
still remain a few degrees above seasonal averages. Expect highs
mainly around upper 70s through Friday with lower 80s by Saturday
across western Nevada. Mid to upper 60s will prevail for Sierra
valleys through Friday with low 70s possible by Saturday. 

Overall, the pattern looks relatively dry. The GFS does try to
spark some convection across the Sierra south of the Tahoe Basin
on Friday afternoon, but it is in the minority compared with other
model output. Feel this is being overdone in the GFS considering
it tries to develop convection in a pattern of an elevated heat
source across the Sierra in Mono County. The considerable snowpack
should put a damper on near terrain instability and will likely 
see just some cumulus build ups across higher terrain free of snow
cover. Fuentes


.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...

The end of the Memorial Day weekend and most of next week will 
feature a period of late spring heat with potential for enhanced 
melting of the high elevation (8000 feet+) Sierra snowpack. This 
would lead to increased flows on small creeks and streams in Mono 
County and into the Walker River system.

The heat along with light winds aloft will allow for several days of 
convective activity and increasing chances for afternoon and evening 
thunderstorms. First day of activity could be Memorial Day and 
mainly along the Sierra Crest from Donner pass southward. Shower and 
thunderstorm potential should continue into Tuesday/Wednesday with a 
few storms possible for western Nevada.  

By late in the week, models are showing a trough approaching the 
west coast. This would likely increase the afternoon and evening 
winds off the Sierra and decrease the potential for showers and 
thunderstorms. Brong

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be gusty again today down at valley floors as the 
pressure gradient tightens. Peak gusts at area terminals will 
generally be 25-30 kts. Winds at ridge level are expected to drop 
off however, so any lee turbulence would be limited to this morning. 
Otherwise, more stable conditions are projected through most of the 
Memorial Day weekend. Hohmann

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The Sierra snowpack will continue to melt over the next several
weeks. As we move into the peak of the melt season, impacts are
likely to become more prevalent for the eastern Sierra, the 
Walker River system and upper portion of the Carson River system.

Creeks and streams are running fast and very cold, bringing the 
risk of hypothermia for those without protective gear. Those with 
plans to camp in the Sierra over the Memorial Day weekend should 
be prepared to quickly leave creek side campsites. Hikers will 
want to be cautious while trying to cross creeks and streams.
Also, be cautious if recreating near a river; some banks may have
become unstable from prolonged inundation and could suddenly 
collapse. Brong/Boyd

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

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http://weather.gov/reno

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu