Weather Service Report


092 
FXUS65 KREV 161024
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
324 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY, BUT IS
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA STARTING
THURSDAY. A COOL FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS FROM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OUTSIDE OF
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY. ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS AROUND TAHOE FOR THE
LATER TIME PERIOD AS WELL. ALSO, INCREASED TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY BY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS VERSION.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE INCREASED ALONG A
PASSING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIEST SOLUTION WITH GFS
AND THE EC LEANING TOWARDS STRONGER FORCING LEADING TO MODESTLY
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GLOBAL
MODELS INCREASING CHANCES ABOVE 25% AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FORCING STILL LOOKS A LITTLE SHALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH CHANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 5 TO 10
PERCENT. IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WILL
PRESENT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON SURFACE INSTABILITY. CLOUD COVER COULD CAP TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO FEWER THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR NOW. 

OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS REMAIN UNCHANGED. WINDS WILL INCREASE,
BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN THE DISTANCE THIS FRONT HAS FROM THE PARENT LOW. OVERALL, WE
WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20 MPH RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOYD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WERE TO 
INCREASE POP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND LOWER HIGHS CONSIDERABLY 
TUESDAY.

SATURDAY, RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM FRIDAY'S WEAK TROUGH WILL COMBINE 
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A 
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO MONO AND WESTERN MINERAL COUNTIES. ON SUNDAY, 
FLAT RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AHEAD OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC ENERGY 
DUE TO MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS STILL SHOWS VERY LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND OUT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. 
THIS IS NOT SHOWN IN ANY OTHER MODEL AND DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WITH THE 
FLAT RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FLATTEN OUT ANY CUMULUS THAT FORM 
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, 00Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN MUCH BETTER 
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN INCOMING TROUGH. THE GEFS 
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE STOUT BY MONDAY NIGHT WHICH 
FURTHER INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH. WITH THESE 
THINGS IN MIND, I HAVE INCREASED POP TO BRING AT LEAST SOME CHANCE 
OF RAIN/SNOW AREAWIDE BY TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY COLD SO SNOW 
LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY FALL TO NEAR ALL VALLEY FLOORS ALTHOUGH IT 
MAY BE AFTER THE MAIN PRECIPITATION PERIOD. IN ANY CASE, AT THIS 
TIME OF YEAR SNOW PRETTY MUCH HAS TO FALL AT NIGHT OR BE 
EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY TO CAUSE ANY IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS 
AS TEMPERATURES FALL FROM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND TO 
BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE TROUGH'S COLD FRONT. SNYDER    

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WITH MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW RELAXING TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE 
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. 
SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




Return to Home page


Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu