Weather Service Report


754 
FXUS65 KREV 272135
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE AREA TONIGHT AND PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS BECOMING
GUSTY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS MOST OF THE MODEL DATA SHOW
PERSISTENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL, BUT WILL
STAY STEADY OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY AT UPPER ELEVATIONS AS A TROUGH
BUSHES THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHEAST CA AND FAR
NORTHWEST NV, BUT WHAT DOES MAKE IT INTO THESE AREAS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ON LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. 

SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING REMAIN ALONG THE SIERRA CREST,
MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT UNDER TROUGH
AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS REMAINS SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND AT
LOWER LEVELS. WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING FOR MONO
COUNTY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH SHOWERS, BUT SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY.

AS WE GO INTO MONDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING. MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON THE TIMING, BUT IT DOES APPEAR RIDGE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT NORTHWARD LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHING HIGHS BACK CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN WESTERN
NV. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MINOR
DISTURBANCES TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY PRODUCE SOME
COOLING, LIGHT PRECIPITATION, AND INCREASED WINDS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY IS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONGST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT WE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS LASSEN COUNTY INTO FAR NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY. NOT LOOKING LIKE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PROVIDE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY
WINDS AS THE TROUGH HELPS ESTABLISH AN ENHANCED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR TUESDAY WHICH COULD CREATE SOME
HAZARDOUS BOATING ON AREA LAKES.

LESS AGREEMENT EXISTS BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS THE EC MODEL TRIES TO
DROP ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS THE
FIRST RUN THE EC HAS DEVELOPED THIS WAVE THIS FAR SOUTH WHILE THE
GFS HAS KEPT THE DISTURBANCE FARTHER NORTH. NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN
ENSEMBLES OR RUN CONSISTENCY TO LATCH ONTO THE EC SOLUTION SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WE WILL MAINTAIN A ZONAL FLOW
WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND. FUENTES

$$

.AVIATION...

WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. PERIODS OF
TURBULENCE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG FORMATION EXPECTED AGAIN FOR KTRK
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY SUNDAY. TF

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




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