Weather Service Report


911 
FXUS65 KREV 252101
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
201 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS, DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEVADA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
WARMING HIGHS AND LIGHT AFTERNOON AND EVENING BREEZES. A FEW
TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY BUILD OVER THE SIERRA SATURDAY WITH
NOT QUITE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO POP A THUNDERSTORM. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S WITH 80S FOR THE SIERRA. LOCATIONS IN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL
COUNTIES MAY REACH 100.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS A COUPLE DAYS OF
HEATING HELP INCREASE MOISTURE. THERE ALSO IS A MOISTURE PUSH FROM
THE SOUTH, BUT WITH MOST OF THE INCREASE WELL ABOVE RIDGE LEVEL
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER
ALPINE AND MONO COUNTY, THOUGH A STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP OVER
PLUMAS/LASSEN COUNTIES AND ACROSS NEVADA WEST OF PYRAMID LAKE TO
HAWTHORNE. MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE RAIN CORES. BRONG

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
PUSHED CONVECTION A BIT OFF THE NORTHERN SIERRA/NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA CREST TUESDAY AND THURSDAY, OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, POSSIBLY PERIODICALLY
MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AT THE LARGE-SCALE, 12Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH PLACING AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS (OR SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST CONUS). AT THE SMALLER-SCALE, 12Z MODELS ARE ALSO IN
FAIR AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER WESTERN
NEVADA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW TURNING TO
LIGHT (10 KTS OR SO) SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. WITH AFTERNOON
TERRAIN HEATING OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA (SIERRA AND NORTHERN
LASSEN) AND LITTLE EVIDENCE FOR AN AFTERNOON ZEPHYR TO KICK OUT
CONVERGENCE, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM IN THE SIERRA AND FOR
NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MANY AREAS AS THE
STEERING FLOW COULD PUSH A FEW STORMS OUT INTO THE BASIN.

TUESDAY, THE GFS/EC/GEM ALL SHOW AN INCREASE IN RIDGING BEHIND
MONDAY'S DISTURBANCE. WHILE THIS WILL NOT SQUELCH CONVECTION
CHANCES, FLOW IS PROGGED TO VEER MORE WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD KICK
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA CREST (NORTH OF ABOUT
MARKLEEVILLE). A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE
FAVORED AREAS OF THE SIERRA SOUTH OF MARKLEEVILLE AND FOR
NORTHEAST LASSEN COUNTY AND PUSH OUT INTO THE FAR WESTERN BASIN.
STILL, I HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR MOST OF WESTERN NEVADA
DUE TO SMALL-SCALE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD
CARRY A FEW STORMS FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THINGS GET MORE NEBULOUS AS SOME MODELS
SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND OTHER DO NOT. IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE MOISTURE GETS ELIMINATED IN MOST MODELS, SO IT WAS
PRUDENT TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCES GOING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES, CLEAR/MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH UPPER RIDGE 
OVERHEAD. SCATTERED VERY HIGH-BASED CUMULUS (ABOVE 19 KFT MSL) ARE 
EXPECTED, MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, FOR SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON.

WIND-WISE, TYPICAL ZEPHYR BREEZES ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING 
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA. WINDS LOOK LIGHTER 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS 
OVERHEAD. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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