Weather Service Report


123 
FXUS65 KREV 250903
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
203 AM PDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Lighter winds will prevail today with temperatures increasing and
becoming hot through next week. Breezy winds return on Sunday and
Monday with near triple digit heat possible across western Nevada.
Hot and dry conditions continue through next week with a small
threat for showers and thunderstorms by mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Temperatures will continue to rise through weekend and into next
week as high pressure strengthens across the region. Highs today
will reach into the lower 90s across western Nevada and lower 80s
for Sierra valleys. Sunday and Monday will further warm with highs
expected to be in the upper 90s to near triple digits for warmer
locations while Sierra valleys warm to the mid 80s. 

Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with clear
skies region wide. The exception will be areas of smoke and haze in
the vicinity of the Marina Fire near Mono Lake. Winds will be
lighter this afternoon, but still could see some east-northeast
transport of smoke into Mineral County with light southwest flow
(<10kts) developing through about 10,000 feet. Dry conditions will
persist through the nighttime hours will poor mid-slope recoveries
expected into early next week.  

Winds will increase on Sunday and remain breezy on Monday as a
surface thermal gradient increases and a weak shortwave trough
crosses the Pacific Northwest. Afternoon zephyr breezes on Sunday
and Monday afternoon may produce gusts in the 20-25 mph range with
isolated areas up to 30 mph possible. The combination of dry
conditions and afternoon gusts may produce isolated areas of near
critical fire weather conditions and also choppy waters on areas
lakes Sunday and Monday. Fuentes


.Long Term (Tuesday Onward)...

Messaging focus continues to be on hot temperatures Tuesday-
Wednesday, followed by chances for thunderstorms south of Hwy 50
starting Wednesday. No significant changes made to ongoing forecast,
just slight bumps upward in max temps and thunderstorm chances.

Guidance maintains strong upper ridge over Cal/Nev early next week
with temperatures correspondingly well above normal. Likely to see
upper 90s or low 100's in W Nev valleys Tues and Wed. While these
temperatures are warm, widespread heat health impacts are not
expected since we'll cool off enough at night. Going into mid/late
week, a weakness is projected to develop on the west side of the
ridge as an upper trough forms over/west of Cal. This pattern would
favor moisture working northward into the region with potential for
thunderstorms starting Wednesday. The best chances for storms is
over the Sierra and nearby high terrain, south of Hwy 50. Too soon
to tell what flavor of storms these will be - but risk is there for
some dry storms at least initially. We could see this thunderstorm
pattern continue into the 4th of July holiday weekend. -Chris

&&

.Aviation...

Should be an overall good weekend for flying across W Nev and the
Sierra. Winds today will be light but somewhat variable, as weak
westerly flow aloft counteracts a N/NE surface pressure gradient.
Areas of MVFR smoke are likely to impact Mono Lake vicinity with the
Marina fire ongoing. Projected afternoon winds could take smoke into
areas near HTH, but likely to stay away from MMH. Sunday we turn
back to a more traditional zephyr pattern, with increased westerlies
in the afternoon and evening. Could see gusts 20-25kts at RNO and
other sites after 22z/Sunday. Pretty similar for Monday. -Chris

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

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http://weather.gov/reno

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu