Weather Service Report


512 
FXUS65 KREV 291022
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
322 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, 
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA TODAY AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. FOR TODAY, WEAK FLOW IN THE MINERAL-MONO
COUNTY CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
A WEAKER CAP IN THIS AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, SO WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOW
MOVING BUT ALSO SHORT LIVED DUE TO LIMITED FORCING, WITH ACTIVITY
WINDING DOWN AFTER SUNSET.

FOR THIS WEEKEND, AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP, AS RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN BRINGS DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IMPROVED MIXING EACH DAY
WILL LEAD TO MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90
DEGREES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE IS A
LITTLE SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WE BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT KEPT PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY
EVENING. IN ADDITION, WE ONLY DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM SATURDAY, WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR.

AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NV SUNDAY NIGHT,
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP IS LOW, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS IN AREAS NORTH OF FALLON-PYRAMID LAKE WHERE INCREASED
FORCING ALOFT COMBINES WITH AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MJD 

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE IS REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING THIS 
CYCLE AS OPPOSED TO THE PREVIOUS. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN 
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP 
THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK BEFORE STARTING TO 
DRIFT EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL 
GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

WITH THE TROUGH INITIALLY SHOWING UP AS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE MONDAY 
AND THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PCPN FARTHER NORTH INTO 
THE PAC NW...WE HAVE JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS 
FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH 
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AND WINDS WILL BE 
STRONGER MONDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.

BY WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER 
AIR ALOFT. THIS COULD PRODUCE POPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN 
1/3 OF THE CWA BUT FOR NOW WE DO NOT HAVE THIS NOTED IN THE 
FORECAST. BE AWARE...THOUGH...AS WE PROGRESS CLOSER TO THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY BE INTRODUCED. HIGH TEMPS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE COOLER FOR WED AND THU BUT STILL AROUND
AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE. 20

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY LIGHT 
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. EACH DAY COULD SEE GUSTIER LATE AFTERNOON 
WINDS EAST OF THE SIERRA...TYPICAL FOR THE WARMER MONTHS. CONVECTION 
IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY EACH DAY...MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS 
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BRIDGEPORT TO YERINGTON TO AUSTIN. ANY 
CONVECTION TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT EVEN IF 
THUNDER DOES DEVELOP STORMS COULD BE NAVIGATED AROUND.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 
NEAR 30 KTS AND RIDGE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 KTS OR MORE. CLOUDS ALSO 
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. 20

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

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