Weather Service Report


355 
FXUS65 KREV 122158
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
158 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION PERIODICALLY. A MODERATE WINTER
STORM IS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY
WINDS, RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM WITH THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. WITH THE WINDS ALOFT LIGHT AND THE PERIODIC CLOUD
COVER RECORDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THREATENED AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY
MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN PUSHING A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT. A BIGGER EFFECT
MAY BE THE LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WITH THE SHALLOW FRONT
LIMITING MIXING FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ONLY MINOR, LOWER IMPACT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST
INCLUDING DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 AND ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 395, AND EASING DOWN HIGHS 2 TO 5 DEGREES FOR MANY SPOTS
ON TUESDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WHILE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S FOR RENO AND FALLON TUESDAY,
DON'T BELIEVE MIXING WILL BE SUFFICIENT WITH ONLY 10-15 KTS AT 700
MB TO REALIZE UPPER 60S. THEREFORE, I HAVE EASED DOWN MANY VALLEY
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS, AREAS NEAR LARGER LAKES (TAHOE, WALKER, PYRAMID) WILL ALSO
FIGHT LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESTRICT HIGHS
EVEN FURTHER.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE SIERRA AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW THAN
THE GFS. THIS WILL AFFECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND END TIMING
(GFS: EARLY THURSDAY, ECMWF: THURSDAY NIGHT) BUT MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEDNESDAY NIGHT START. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM THAT WE WILL SEE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH
SIERRA SNOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
SNYDER/HOON

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUD DECKS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KT AT RIDGE LEVEL. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

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