Weather Service Report


096 
FXUS65 KRIW 300936
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
336 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE PERIOD ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO START OUT QUIET. A RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MAINLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION 
WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY BREEZE AT 
TIMES AND AS A RESULT THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE DANGER. IT IS 
BORDERLINE...BUT WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING RIDE FOR NOW 
ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN...EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE MAINLY FOR 
WESTERN AREAS AND NOT RIVERTON OR LANDER.MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD 
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON.

THINGS DO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER. SOME 
MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT 
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH 
TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS IN THE 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUITY HAD THIS COVERED FAIRLY WELL SO WE 
MADE FEW CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST 
OF THE DIVIDE WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH SOME NEW RECORD 
HIGHS POSSIBLY BEING SET. AT THIS TIME...THE 700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO 
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS EXCEPT FOR 
THE MAYBE THE FAVORED AREAS AROUND THE CODY FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY 
AROUND THE MOST IMPORTANT CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK. 
HOWEVER...IT WILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. 
WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW TO SEE IF ANY NEW FUEL REPORTS COME IN TO 
SEE IF MORE ZONES NEED TO BE INCLUDED...BUT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH 
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY TO ISSUED SOMETIME TODAY. THE 
DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE RAIN 
FREE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST 
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL USHER IN 
SOME SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE LONG STRETCH 
OF WARM WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED. THE MODELS DO HAVE SOME SHOWERS 
AROUND BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT HEAVY THROUGH THE DAY. 
AGAIN...WITH CONTINUITY LOOKING REASONABLE WE MADE FEW CHANGES. SOME 
TRANSITORY RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP 
THINGS MAINLY DRY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DOES NOT LOOK AS 
INTERESTING ON THIS SET OF 00Z RUNS FOR THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. IT 
SEEMS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING SNOW 
SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WILL KEEP A MIX IN THE LOWER 
ELEVATIONS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DOMINATE. 
WOULD NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET THURS NIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW WITH DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. DRY FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY NOW LOOKS DRY. THE MODELS ARE
AGAIN DIFFERENT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN.
THE GFS MAINTAINS A WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH PRECIP IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A
SW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
IMPACTING MAINLY NW WY BOTH DAYS. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY I HAVE
GONE WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCE IN NW WY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW. WILL SEE HOW THINGS LOOK
TONIGHT AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. AS FOR TEMPS...COLDER HIGHS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN WARMING BACK UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP MONDAY MILD AS WELL...AGAIN LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WITH MAINLY A 
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS.  W-NW WINDS OF 10-20KTS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY 
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A GUSTY 
BREEZE WILL BLOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN THEREFORE A 
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE 
RIVERTON AIRPORT AND WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...THERE ALTHOUGH RED FLAG 
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE 
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN NATRONA COUNTY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT 
WILL BRING WINDIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE FIRE 
DANGER ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN WYOMING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS


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