Weather Service Report


680 
FXUS65 KPUB 310515
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO TONIGHT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH 
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH 
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW 
TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS 
RIVER...WILL FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WILL HOIST A 
FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE ZONES...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING A HARD 
FREEZE...AS VERY LOW MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK TOO COLD...WITH BIAS 
CORRECTED AND BLENDED GUIDANCE LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGF OF FREEZING 
ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. COLDEST SPOTS ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY 
OCCUR IN THE USUAL FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER AROUND 
KPUB AND KLAA AIRPORTS. FARTHER WEST...MOST MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN 
VALLEYS WILL FALL IN THE 20S AND 30S ONCE AGAIN. 

ON FRIDAY...E-SE WINDS WILL FEED SEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE PLAINS 
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...KEEPING MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS SLIGHTLY COOLER 
THAN THU. MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL SEE ONLY VERY MINOR 
COOLING AS HEIGHTS/MID LEVEL TEMPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS UPPER RIDGE 
MOVES EAST. WINDS OVER THE PLAINS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON 
AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH 
RANGE LOOK LIKELY EAST OF I-25 BY LATE IN THE DAY.  

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN...AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON AREA SAN JUAN PEAKS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING
NORTH ALONG ALL OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...MIXING WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE WARM WITH 70S OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPLIT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY PALMER DIVIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG...AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. HAVE STARTED TO
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LIKELY. CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION. MODELS DEVELOPING A ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF EASTERLY
UPSLOPE...HAVE A FEELING A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON
RIDGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 7 KFT LIMITING
ANY SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FIRST HARD FREEZE FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MID 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH
A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL PUT THE
REGION UNDER BROAD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOLER SIDE WITH 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AT
KCOS...WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KPUB AND KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ085-086-089-093-
095>098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH

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