Weather Service Report


102 
FXUS65 KPUB 201012
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
412 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AN UPR RIDGE WL REMAIN CENTERED OVR CO TODAY.  THIS MORNING A FRONT 
WL BE MOVING THROUGH SERN CO...BRINGING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 
THAT TURN EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS DRY ACRS THE FORECAST 
AREA THRU MIDDAY...BUT IN THE AFTERNOON SOME ISOLD TO SCT 
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE MTN AREAS.  THE NAM AND GFS 
KEEP THE PCPN TIED TO THE HYR TERRAIN THRU 00Z. DURING THE EVENING 
HOURS THE NAM HAS PCPN SPREADING OUT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR... 
MAINLY FROM PUEBLO COUNTY AND NORTHWARD...WITH THE REST OF THE SERN 
PLAINS REMAINING DRY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS THIS 
AFTERNOON WL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY OVR THE SERN PLAINS...HOWEVER 
THEY WL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.  IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...TEMPS 
TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WHICH IS ABOVE AVERAGE BY 
NEARLY 10 DEGREES.

TONIGHT THE UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA...BUT AN UPR TROF MOVES 
INTO WRN NV...WHICH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO WRN CO. IN THE 
LATE NIGHT HOURS THE NAM SHOWS PCPN ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
THE EXCEPTION IN THE NAM IS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS... 
HOWEVER THE ARW FOCUSES PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS OVR THOSE FAR 
SOUTHERN AREAS. WL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR 
TONIGHT AND WL GO WITH ISOLD TO SCT POPS ACRS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS 
THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE IS SHUNTED SOUTH AND 
EAST BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MID 
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME 
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO BECOMES ENTRAINED WITHIN THE 
FLOW ALOFT. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASING OROGRAPHICS AND LIFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CONTDVD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF 
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE 
PLAINS...MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE EXPECTED TO KEEP STRATUS AND A FEW 
POSSIBLE SPRINKLES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 
CORRIDOR...IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS 
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DEVELOPING WAA. 
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE 
WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. 
 
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE 
WESTERLY AS UPPER LOW WEAKENS WITH A BROAD TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. 
BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA 
THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE 
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND 
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL WAA. COULD SEE A 
FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL WITH INCREASING BULK  
SHEARS.   
 
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND EXPECTED AS UPPER 
RIDGING ACROSS WEST COAST BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ENOUGH 
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT GENERALLY ISOLATED 
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NORTH TO 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  
KCOS AND KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.  
THERE COULD BE SOME TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS AFT 00Z...AND BY 
ABOUT 04Z PCPN CHANCE WL INCREASE WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR BY ABOUT 
10Z.  KPUB IS EXPECTED TO SEE PCPN MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 
02Z...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY ABOUT 10Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28

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