Weather Service Report


499 
FXUS65 KPUB 301127
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
527 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE HYDRO
ISSUES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS POCKETS OF PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND
TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO 
BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWFA FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

CWFA CURRENTLY NOTING GENERALLY DECREASING PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS WITH EARLY MORNING EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE
DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S RANGE. 

HAVE EXTENDED EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...WITH PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION FOCUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES/FOOTHILLS AND
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR INTO THIS EVENING.

ALSO CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING AS EVEN MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ON TOP OF THE IMPRESSIVE RAIN AMOUNTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS COULD CAUSE HYDRO ISSUES OVER THE EXISTING
SATURATED SOILS. PLEASE NOTE THAT IF THE AIRMASS IS TOO STABLE TO
SUPPORT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY...THE FLASH FLOOD
HIGHLIGHT MAY BE TAKEN DOWN LATER TODAY.

FINALLY...WELL BELOW LATE JULY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY(WITH FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID
70S)...WHILE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA SHOULD EXPERIENCE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW
LATE JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

HYDRO ISSUES...LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE LONGER TERM.

RECENT LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS KEEP MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE MAJORITY 
OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME DRYING 
INDICATED FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AT 12Z THURSDAY
SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS/COLORADO REGION FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

ENOUGH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE(AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATERS RUNNING FROM 1.00 TO 1.40 INCHES) REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
LOCALIZED STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED HYDRO/FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. 

FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THEN DROP TO UNDER ONE INCH AT
TIMES FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK(BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY)...ALLOWING FOR DECREASED PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME-FRAME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE BASICALLY PROJECTED TO RUN BELOW LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THEN RETURNING TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOIGCAL AVERAGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KCOS AND KPUB WITH LOCAL  
-SHRA POSSIBLE AT KCOS THROUGH THE MORNING.  COULD SEE CIGS DROP 
INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT KCOS OR KPUB...BUT 
THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT SO WILL KEEP CIGS/VIS IN 
THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR NOW.  MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
THE DAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF 
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  COULD SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS 
SHOULD STRONGER STORMS IMPACT THE TERMINALS.  WILL CARRY A 
PREVAILING -TSRA GROUP AT KCOS BUT WITH A LITTLE STRONGER STABILITY 
A KPUB WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR NOW.  OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL DROP BACK 
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT 
IN LIGHT SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW.  

KALS COULD STILL SEE A WINDOW IF IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS IN FOG THIS 
MORNING THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER ROUND OF 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD DROP 
CIGS/VIS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES.  IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN 
BE EXPECTED AFTER 02Z THOUGH IF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OCCURS WE COULD 
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN FOG TOWARDS MORNING. -KT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

IN ADDITION TO THE HYDRO ISSUES ADDRESSED IN THE SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE
INCH AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS INTO THIS EVENING OVER AREA BURN SCARS...WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ON TOP OF RECENTLY SATURATED SOILS. AS TOUCHED UPON EARLIER...ONE
POTENTIAL LIMITATION TO STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>089-093>099.

&&

$$

Return to Home page


Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu