Weather Service Report


015 
FXUS65 KPUB 231126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
526 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OF A
TRINIDAD TO HASWELL LINE. LIGHT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FALLING OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PEA SIZE
HAIL MAY BE FALLING OUT OF STRONGER CORES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.  

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY 
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW 
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE 
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.  
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH 
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO 
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE 
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS 
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS 
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS 
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT 
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING 
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS 
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM. 
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS 
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH 
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM 
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY 
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH 
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN 
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS 
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.  
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE 
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH 
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS 
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A 
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL 
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR 
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN 
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY 
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND 
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL 
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU 
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON'T 
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA 
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN 
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR 
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A 
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING 
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS 
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST 
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY 
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE 
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE 
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING 
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.  
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9 
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW 
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN 
LUIS VALLEY BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.  
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN 
EXCESS OF 25 KTS LIKELY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST 
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT LOOK TO 
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO 
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS 
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING WILL BE 
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.  LOWERED CIGS 
AND VIS TO IFR-LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  THE MOST 
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS WILL BE FROM 19Z THROUGH 
03Z/SUN.  

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN 
DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE 
AREA THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE 
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE 
MAIN THREATS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  LOWERED CIGS AND VIS TO IFR-
LIFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY 
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 17Z AND THROUGH 00Z/SUN.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY

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