Weather Service Report


470 
FXUS65 KPUB 282057
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
257 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Currently...

Skies mostly clear over the region this afternoon. A few light 
showers were noted north of the CWA, mainly in the Front Range 
mountains and along and N of the CO/WY-NE border. temps were 
relatively cool at 2 pm were in the L70s across the plains and 50s 
and 60s in the valleys. Temps in the mtns were rather cool, with 20s 
and 30s. 

Rest of today and into tonight...

Can't rule out some isold showers over the mtns late this afternoon 
and early evening, with the best chance across the southern Sangres 
and C mtn regions. However, expect skies to remain mostly clear 
across the fcst area.

A cool front will move down the plain later tonight and this will 
bring some clouds to the lower elevations. Some guidance was showing 
some showers over the plains but believe this is a bit over done. 
Min temps tonight should reach into the 40s lower elevations with 
30s valleys and 10s and 20s in the mtns. 

Tomorrow...

Moist upslope flow will develop over the plains and expect we will 
see an uptick in thunderstorm coverage across the region by tomorrow 
afternoon. CAPE values will range in the 400 to 800 J/KG range with 
shear values 0f 25 to 35 knts. Given these values we will likely see 
a strong storm or two, but significant severe is not expected at this 
time. Best coverage of storms late tomorrow afternoon will be along 
the mtns/plains interface and I-25 corridor region. 

Max temps tomorrow will be quite similar to today...with mainly 70s 
across the plains with 60s on the divides. Valleys will be in the 
60s and 70s. \/Hodanish


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Monday night-Wednesday night...Upper level ridging progged to 
slowly build across the Rockies into the middle of next week, with 
models indicating enough moisture in place to support daily rounds 
of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through this 
period. Greatest coverage of storms are expected to be over and near 
the higher terrain, through the afternoon with storms then possibly 
developing and moving across the eastern plains through the evening 
hours before diminishing through the late evening and overnight 
hours. With generally weak flow aloft, storms that do develop are 
not expected to be severe, though could see a few stronger storms 
across the far southeast plains, where the best low level moisture 
will be in place. Temperatures look to be at or slightly above 
seasonal levels through the middle of the week, with highs generally 
in the 70s and 80s across the lower elevations, and mainly 50s and 
60s across the higher terrain. 

Thursday-Sunday...There remains some differences in longer range 
models, with the GFS indicating a trough digging across the Great 
Basin Wedensday night which continues across the Rockies Thursday 
and Thursday night before moving into the High Plains on Friday. The 
ECMWF is much less amplified with the system and has it riding the 
periphery of the ridge across the Northern Tier and into the Upper 
Midwest. The GFS solution would allow for better coverage of showers 
and thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday, along with the potential 
for strong to severe storms with increased shear across the region, 
while the EC solution will lead to a more diurnally driven storm 
regime. Either way, upper level ridging progged to build back over 
the region into next weekend, with more isolated and diurnally 
driven showers and storms expected. Again, temperatures look to be 
around seasonal levels through the extended period. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf 
sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS. However, we may see a -TSRA at KPUB and 
KCOS by late tomorrow afternoon. 

A cool front will move down the plains late tonight and flow will 
become upslope by tomorrow afternoon. With the air becoming a bit 
unstable, storms will develop along the mtns/plains interface during 
the later afternoon time period, and then move onto the plains.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu