Weather Service Report


794 
FXUS65 KPUB 300534
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1134 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

HAVE LET THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRE AT 10 PM AS
ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED. HRRR STILL INDICATES A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KIOWA COUNTY AND AT
TIMES NORTHEAST EL PASO COUNTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS STILL
PLAUSIBLE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND PRESENCE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET...HOWEVER STORM STRENGTH APPEARS TO BE WAINING WITH
INCREASING STABILITY. WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH 09Z.
ALTHOUGH MAIN THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...STILL CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM TO NEAR
SEVERE STORM. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Currently...Upper high pressure ridge continues over the desert SW,
while abundant llvl moisture across the e plains has provided the
fuel for thunderstorms to develop over the eastern mts and el paso
county. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for el paso county
through 10 pm, though the best activity will likely be north of the
Palmer Dvd. A cooler start this morning has kept aftn temps a bit
cooler for the plains, with readings in the upper 70s and 80s as of
3 pm.

Tonight and Tomorrow...For the big picture, the upper ridge starts
to edge to the east while flattening over the next 24 hrs, producing
lighter westerly flow aloft and warming temps.

The higher elevations and e plains will likely see storm activity
tonight, though the best areas are again the eastern mts and I-25
corridor. The best threat of severe wx will be the northern sections
of the I-25 corridor, specifically El Paso County and north. Strong
winds and large damaging hail will be the likely threats from any
severe storms. Convective activity is forecast to taper off to the
east by midnight, with the last lingering storms along the CO/KS
state line. Model soundings are indicating another night of
potential low clouds for the e plains, so included such for the KCOS
and KPUB airports. Showers and storms will fire along the higher
terrain tomorrow by midday, with isolated to perhaps scattered
thunderstorms then moving across all of the area through the late
aftn. Max temps will climb into the 90s for the plains, 80s for the
high valleys and 70s for the mt passes. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Relatively active conditions anticipated during the longer term
with primary meteorological concerns being pops...storm
strength...locally heavy rainfall potential and temperatures. 

Recent longer range PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations suggest that upper ridge will remain centered
over Arizona and New Mexico into early next week with upper ridge
then becoming centered over southeastern Kansas by late next week.

This type of meteorological pattern will allow adequate
atmospheric moisture to continue to flow over the forecast
district into next week with increasing atmospheric moisture
then projected to move into the CWFA from mid to late week next
week due to upper flow pattern becoming more favorable as upper
high shifts east of Colorado. In addition...northerly to
northeasterly surface surges(primarily over eastern sections) are
also expected to impact the forecast district by later next week.

For sensible weather, will depict primarily isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms from this weekend into early next week
with more widespread storms then anticipated from mid to latter
portions of next week, with stronger storms capable of generating
heavy rain/flash flooding threats at times...especially by later
next week. As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.

Finally, above seasonal late July/early August maximum and minimum 
temperatures are anticipated over the majority of the forecast
district from Saturday night into Wednesday with near to below
seasonal temperatures then expected by next Thursday and Friday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

A few isolated thunderstorms have recently developed across El
Paso County as of 0521 UTC, as upper level energy has provided
just enough lift to get some TSRA going. However, expect this
shower development to be rather short-lived, but KCOS could see
VCTS through 0700 UTC.

With moist upslope flow continuing overnight, MVFR to IFR CIGs
will be possible once again at KCOS and KPUB. MVFR CIGs at KCOS
could transition to IFR CIGs starting around 10Z and could persist
through 16Z. KPUB on the other hand, will see MVFR CIGs starting
around 13Z, with a slight chance of seeing IFR CIGs developing.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon before moving
near the terminals. KCOS, KALS, and KPUB could see VCTS starting
at 21/22 UTC. Storms will be capable of producing brief periods
of heavy rainfall and gusty winds leading to MVFR to IFR
conditions. Lukinbeal

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
AVIATION...Lukinbeal/KT

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