Weather Service Report


389 
FXUS65 KPUB 261555
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
955 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF 
THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS ALONG WITH THE 
RATON MESA REGION...

CURRENTLY...

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM N IDAHO...SWD ALL THE WAY DOWN 
INTO OLD MEXICO. SYSTEM WAS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS 
NE ARIZ BASED ON LATEST SHORT RUN HI RES PRGS. ACROSS THE 
REGION...WAA WAS FIRING OFF CONVECTION FROM JUST N OF KCOS INTO 
NORTHEAST COLO. LOW CIGS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE COLO PLAINS. 
MOISTURE WAS NOT AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 50 DWPTS WERE NOTED 
OVER THE FAR SE COLO PLAINS AND THIS MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING WWD 
TOWARDS THE MTNS. 

TODAY...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK WILL BE A BIT 
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST 
QPF WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PLAINS 
GENERALLY EAST OF I-25 AND AREAS NORTH OF THE LAS ANIMAS/BACA COUNTY 
BORDERS WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIP AS EARLIER PROJECTED. 
HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT VERY HEAVY PRECIP TO FALL OVER THE WET 
MTNS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND THE NEARBY VALLEYS. THE 
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ADJ TO THESE MTNS WILL ALSO SEE IMPRESSIVE QPF 
VALUES. 

ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY...THE CONTDVD REGION WILL SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF 
SNOW...HOWEVER VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN WITH THIS 
EVENT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHERN TRACK. 

THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER NOONTIME 
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHEST 
ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES/WETS AROUND NOON AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK 
DOWNWARD IN ELEVATION AS THE LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ONE TO 2 
FEET OF SNOW IS VERY LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW WILL 
BE VERY WET.

THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE RATON 
MESA REGION MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS. 
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE 
AFTERNOON. 

THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL SEE SOME DECENT PRECIP. ALL OF THE 
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FOCUSES THE PRECIP ON THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF 
PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART RANGE...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESSER AMOUNTS 
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY. SNOWFALL VALUES ACROSS 
FAR W EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY WILL LIKELY VARY 
CONSIDERABLY....WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SLOPES AND (MUCH)
LESSER AMOUNTS WEST SLOPES.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE 
TODAY.

A QUICK REVIEW OF HILITES...ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR 
THE CONTDVD. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE TOPS OF THE 
SANGRES...WETS AND PIKES PEAK AT NOON. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR 
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES AND WETS AT 4 PM. AN ADVISORY 
GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT 4 PM. 
AN ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR HUERFANO AND LOWER WESTERN LAS 
ANIMAS COUNTIES AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GOING TO BE 
VERY TRICKY AS THE W SXNS OF THESE ZONES MAY SEE WARNING CRITERIA 
WHILE EASTERN SXNS OF THESE ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY RAIN. WITHOUT 
SAYING...IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT FCST FOR THESE AREAS. THE WET MTN 
VALLEY ALSO HAS AN ADVISORY STARTING AFTER 8 PM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO 
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. 

TONIGHT...

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE 
WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ALONG WITH THE RATON MESA REGION TONIGHT. 
STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF FOR THESE REGIONS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2 
AND 3 INCHES. 

THE LOWEST RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY REACH 6000 FEET SOUTH OF 
PUEBLO...WITH THE "SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW ELEVATION" LIKELY 
BEGINNING AROUND ~7500 FEET. 

PRECIP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY LATE 
EVENING. ONE TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN EL 
PASO COUNTY TONIGHT. \/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT HAVE
SHOWN LOW RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ENSEMBLES HAVING HIGH SPREADS
FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  

MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...7 KFT AND UP...AND THE PRIMARY FOCUS MONDAY OVER THE
WET MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL INDICATING AREAS ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL UP TO HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.  

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
OKLAHOMA. EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WARMING UP. A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 6OS AND 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ENSEMBLE SPREADS BEGIN TO RISE SHARPLY
BY THURSDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS WITH A DEEPER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...CURRENTLY THINK THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH...BUT FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING
OVER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT 
KCOS AND KPUB DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW CIGS. PRECIP WILL LIKELY RESTRICT 
VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST FOR THE 
NEXT 24H. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. 

WE MAY SEE RESTRICTED VIS/CIGS AT KALS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF 
RESTRICTIONS FROM THE MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD THROUGH MID EVENING 
AS THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP IN THE VALLEY. MOST...IF 
NOT ALL...OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT 
MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT MONDAY 
FOR COZ072-074-079.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT 
MONDAY FOR COZ076-078-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ073-075-080-
082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH

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