Weather Service Report


674 
FXUS65 KPUB 171701
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1101 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

CURRENTLY...

SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE 
FROM FOWLER TO TRINIDAD. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE 
REGION...WITH THE SW MTNS SEEING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. 
FOG WAS NOTED IN THE WEB CAMS AND SFC OBS ACROSS MAINLY N EL PASO 
COUNTY. 

TODAY...

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY 
MID TO LATE MORNING. FOG OVER EL PASO COUNTY WILL LINGER INTO MID 
MORNING AS MOIST LLVL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. TEMPS WILL RECOVER 
TODAY INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. AREAS WHICH RECEIVED 
HEAVIER SNOW FALL...I.E. S MTNS...WILL REMAIN COOL.

TONIGHT...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S PLAINS AND 
20S ELSEWHERE. MAY SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVER FAR E CO 
LATE TONIGHT WITH RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW T/TD SPREADS. 
\/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND EC REMAIN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION AND TIMING OF A CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...AND EVENTUALLY COLORADO...IMPACTING THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE 
RATES ACROSS THE AREA...AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 
PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM12...00Z RUN IN THIS CASE... 
REMAINS THE OUTLIER FOR THIS EVENT...AS IT REMAINS THE FARTHEST 
SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT...IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/EC 
SOLUTIONS...AND BRINGS DEWPOINTS IN THE FORTIES...6 DEGREES HIGHER 
THAN THE 00Z GFS...INTO KPUB. WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC 
AS THEY HAVE SHOWN THE MOST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
 
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS 
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL VERY LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP 
SNOW LEVELS AOA 10KFT...WHICH MEANS BURN SCARS WILL NEED TO BE 
MONITORED AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...MODEL/BUFKIT SEVERE PARAMETERS AROUND THE
CWA ARE ALMOST NON EXISTENT...SO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE ON THE LOW SIDE AND VERY ISOLATED.

THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING SOME 
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN ITS WAKE. THE GFS AND EC INDICATE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL FIRE UP BETWEEN 18Z AND 
00Z...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. I INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY IN 
THESE AREAS AND LEFT POPS AS IS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND 
CENTRAL I-25 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO 
COMPLIMENTS OF A 500MB RIDGE AND FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER 
THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION 
AND LIKELY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE AREA DEPENDING ON FUEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 
AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. -PJC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

REMAINING LOW CIGS E OF THE MTS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 19Z...BUT
A SCT-BKN DECK COULD PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS THIS 
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRI...ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT...SOME PC FG CAN NOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT KALS OR KCOS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
PROBABILITY IS LOW AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PJC
AVIATION...ROSE

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