Weather Service Report


058 
FXUS65 KPUB 231101
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
401 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

...Heavy wind driven snow to continue across the Continental
Divide...

One round of snow has moved through the area early this morning with
satellite/short range models suggesting a brief downturn in snowfall
this morning before the 2nd heavier wave moves in this afternoon and
evening. This next round...which is back across northern CA and NV
looks to have a better more sustained moisture fetch...and both GFS
and NAM are printing out heavy snow across the Continental Divide as
the upper jet translates in across western CO then sags southward...
putting area under more favorable lift during the afternoon and
evening. Snow will also spread across the San Luis Valley this
afternoon and evening...though initially temperatures above freezing
will help limit accumulations until the early evening hours. Current
set of highlights still looks on track.  The heaviest snow will fall
across the eastern San Juan mountains...where aided by orographics
total snowfall accumulations of 1 to 2 feet can be expected by
storms and early Tuesday morning. Storm total snow for the La
Garitas, Eastern Sawatch and Western Mosquito ranges should hit the
8 to 18 inch range. Advisory areas which include NW Sawatch
county...the upper Rio Grande...and central Lake and the lower
eastern slopes of the Sawatch range should see 5-10 inches...with 8
to 12 for the crest of the Sangre De Cristo range.  Should see 1-3
inches of snow across the interior valleys with the heaviest across
southern portions of the San Luis Valley. Considered hoisting an
advisory for portions of the southern San Luis Valley but initial
warm temperatures will probably limit accums until the evening
hours...which should keep totals in the sub advisory range. 

Otherwise...it will be very windy today across the region.  Higher
peaks could see gusts to 70 mph for the Sangres...with gusts to 55-
60 mph for the southwest and central mountains.  Lower
elevations...particularly southern I-25 corridor and adjacent plains
will see gusts in the 40-45 mph range.  Deep mixing will allow for
one more warm day across the plains with temperatures in the upper
50s to low 60s.  As forcing moves across tonight...could see a stray
shower move into the adjacent plains...particularly north of highway
50. However...strong downslope should cause these to diminish as
they move eastward...so have limited pops to the isolated category. 
-KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

Main longer term meteorological issues include generally light to
moderate snow at times over primarily higher terrain locations,
temperatures and gusty winds at times. 

Recent longer term computer simulations, PV analysis and forecast
model soundings indicate that closed upper low traversing Nebraska
Tuesday will shift into Michigan by later Wednesday followed by
a colder northwesterly upper flow pattern developing across
southern Colorado into late week.

In addition, a northerly surface surge is expected to move across
eastern sections of the forecast district Tuesday. At this time,
projected snow amounts favoring higher terrain locations(especially
sections of the Continental Divide) should generally remain in the
1 to 4 inch range during any 6 hour period, primarily on Tuesday.

If latest computer simulations and/or real time data come in more
aggressive than last nights data, WFO Pueblo may extend existing
Winter weather highlights past 12Z Tuesday. As always, WFO Pueblo
will monitor closely.

Regarding temperatures, anticipate that near to above seasonal
temperatures should prevail over most locations into Tuesday with
below seasonal later January temperatures then projected from
later Tuesday into Saturday.

Finally, the highest potential for gusty winds during the longer
term should be experienced from Tuesday into Tuesday night and
then again by Friday night.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 359 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

While the mountains remain under persistent IFR to VLIFR conditions
today with SN and BLSN...the valleys and plains will remain VFR.
Gusty southwest winds will increase at all three terminals by this
afternoon with gusts up to 35 kts expected.  Mtn top obscurations
expected to persist along the Continental Divide and Sangre De
Cristo ranges through today. Another more intense round of lift will
spread thickening clouds across the TAF sites...with the potential
for MVFR to IFR conditions in -SHSN for KALS during the late
afternoon and evening.  Could see an inch or two of snowfall at the
terminal through 06z...then improving conditions thereafter.
Isolated showers will drift off into the adjacent plains this
evening...but are expected to remain too sparse to affect the KCOS
and KPUB terminals. If they did...they would have the potential to
produce some brief MVFR cigs. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for COZ059-061-
064-067-073-075.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday for COZ058-060-066-
068.

&&

$$

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu