Weather Service Report


772 
FXUS65 KPUB 061736
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITTING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
BEING REPORTED NEAR THE COLORADO UTAH BORDER.  HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PLAINS HAS KEPT THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE PLAINS...AND WILL COMBINE WITH
HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT TO PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE PLAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY.  LAND
MANAGEMENT HAS INDICATED THAT FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL AND SPRING GREEN UP...SO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE ISSUED.  THAT BEING SAID...OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED
DUE TO THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  ENERGY WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS.  MODELS DO HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW FAR EAST
WE WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...WITH A FEW
SOLUTIONS INDICATING ACTIVITY SHIFTING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE I-
25 CORRIDOR.  FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING...HALF INCH HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.  AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO UTAH BY SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORM ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS WILL HELP
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHILE ANY ACTIVITY TO THE EAST LIFTS
INTO NORTHERLY COLORADO DURING THE EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.  A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...COOLER AND WINDY AT TIMES WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES...

SATURDAY...CURRENT MODELS BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
AREAS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE PIKES PEAK
REGION...BUT LEAVE THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  IT LOOKS WINDY ALL
AREAS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER
NORTH IN NORTHERN COLORADO...KEEPING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FARTHER NORTH AS WELL.  ACTUAL SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT COULD STILL
END UP FARTHER SOUTH...THUS...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN
COLORADO...SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS WILL BE UP AND
HUMIDITIES DOWN...BUT ACCORDING TO LATEST FUELS ASSESSMENTS...THERE
IS ENOUGH GREENUP ONGOING FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION TO NEGATE THE
NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BULK OF UPPER TROUGH CROSSES REGION.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...WITH EVERYPLACE ELSE SEEING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AND BRINGING COOL AIR
SOUTH FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW
DELIVERING DAILY SHORTWAVES THAT INITIATE DAILY CONVECTION. MODELS
HAVE CONVECTION BLOWING UP DAILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND TRACKING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THE SERIES OF WAVES ALSO SENDS A
SERIES OF BOUNDARIES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS...TURNING LOW LEVEL
WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT TIMES.  THIS...COUPLED WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT...COULD MEAN SEVERE WEATHER AT TIMES ON THE
PLAINS.  A PRETTY TYPICAL SETUP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS. SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS
AREAS AND SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY COULD DRIFT OFF OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW THAT ANY OF THESE WL MOVE
OVR THE TAF SITES AND SO WL NOT INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28

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