Weather Service Report


506 
FXUS65 KPUB 212221
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV 
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS 
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE 
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH 
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY 
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS 
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH 
IN GAP AREAS. 

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES 
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR 
CERTAIN. 

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS 
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE 
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS 
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW 
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS 
ARE ANTICIPATED. 

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD 
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO 
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE 
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY 
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME. 

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW 
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY 
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES 
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER 
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON 
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY 
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT 
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL 
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE 
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER 
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A 
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS 
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH 
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE 
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS. 

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL 
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD 
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO 
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S 
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP 
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE 
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE 
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE 
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU 
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN 
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS 
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE 
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY. 
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU 
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR 
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST 
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN 
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRONG PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL 
GRADUALLY SPILL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. 

KCOS...

SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE...WITH SOME SHRA 
TOMORROW MORNING. BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SNOW WILL BE TOMORROW 
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW SO 
SNOW SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE ON PAVED RUNWAYS. HOWEVER...IF A LOCALLY 
SNOW BAND DEVELOPS THEN IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME ACCUM SNOW OVER 
THE THE KCOS AREA. FOR NOW THE PROBABILITY OF THIS LOOKS TO LOW TO 
EXPLICITLY MENTION IN THE TAF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 
AFTERNOON. 

KALS..

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS BEST FORCING MOVES OVER AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...

WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24H PERIOD. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE 
OUT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY 
FOR A SHORT WHILE TO MVFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE 
AVIATION...HODANISH

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