Weather Service Report


801 
FXUS65 KPUB 261138
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
438 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE SHORT-TERM CONTINUE TO BE 
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ONCE AGAIN OVER 
PORTIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY.

AS OF 4 AM MST...EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 
DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY 
MORNING TEMPERATURES...WHILE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST 
DISTRICT NOTING NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER 
TEMPERATURES...VARIABLE CLOUDS AS WELL AS SNOW AND GUSTY 
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. 
 
LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME 
DATA SUGGEST THAT GUSTY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING 
SNOW(GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE) WILL BE NOTED OVER SECTIONS 
OF CHAFFEE AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY AND 
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THESE LOCATIONS TO 
19Z TODAY.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE 
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY 
WINDS AT TIMES.  

OVERALL...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RUN NEAR LATE NOVEMBER 
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE 
PROJECTED TO RUN WARMER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN 
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. 

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY THERE WL BE DRY NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA WITH 
AN UPR RIDGE BEING OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WL BE A FEW 
TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVR THE FORECAST AREA FOR THU...WITH 
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE 
AVERAGE. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY THU NIGHT AND REMAINS THAT 
WAY THRU SAT.  THE WX DURING THIS TIME WL BE DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE 
HIGH TEMPS.  

AN UPR TROF MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES 
ON SUNDAY...IS EXPECTED TO SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO SUN AFTERNOON.  
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HIGH TEMPS ON 
SUN.  FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE COOLER SUN...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY 
WL STILL BE AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE ACRS MOST OF THE 
FORECAST AREA.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR SUN ACRS THE AREA.  SUN 
NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE.  THE GFS 
KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE 
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE CENTRAL CO 
MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA. WL KEEP THE 
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR 
MON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE.  THE ECMWF HAS A 
PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND 
THEN INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS 
SYSTEM SENDS A FRONT THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE 
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS HAS A TROF 
EXTENDING FROM WRN MT TO OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THIS BRINGS 
INCREASING MSTR TO THE CONTDVD AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN.  FOR NOW 
WL JUST GO WITH SOME MTN PCPN AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME INTO 
BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS 
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND 
KPUB TAF SITES INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.  ALSO...LOCALIZED GUSTY 
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION.  

FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...OVER PRIMARILY NORTHERN 
SECTIONS...ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO 
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77

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