Weather Service Report


315 
FXUS65 KPUB 260520
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1020 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UNSEASONABLY WARM MONDAY...

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A RIDGE OF 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TRANSLATES EASTWARD INTO CO BY 
MONDAY.  LEE TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT WILL KEEP 
THESE AREAS WARMER THAN PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE 
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS WHERE LOWS MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE 
MID-UPPER 30S. ON MONDAY...H7 TEMPS WARM TO BETWEEN +3 AND +6C 
ACROSS SOUTHERN CO.  THIS COULD PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 
70 DEGREE MARK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH 40S AND 
50S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY.  SKIES SHOULD 
BE SUNNY...BUT WITH WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE 
LIGHT SIDE...WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING SOME.  FOR THAT REASON THINK 
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW THE RECORD HIGHS WHICH ARE...PUEBLO...74
IN 1951 COLORADO SPRINGS...68 IN 1982 ALAMOSA...57 IN 1982.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO 
INDICATE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING...LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF WEAKENING 
DESERT SW UPPER LOW EJECTING ACROSS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER 
THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SLOWER AND 
FURTHER WEST EJECTION OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH KEEPS BEST CHANCES OF 
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE 
SOUTHWEST MTS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 
DAY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR
ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LOWS AREA
WIDE TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS TUESDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND ONLY SLOWLY INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. CURRENT RECORDS FOR JAN 27 ARE 55F AT ALS IN 1970...67F AT
COS IN 1970 AND 73F AT PUB IN 2003.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF IS 
STRONGER...SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHERE AS THE NAM...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS 
REMAIN FURTHER NORTH AND FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM. THE EC SOLUTION 
WITH PRODUCE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS 
AND PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE STAYED 
CLOSER TO MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING SILENT POPS ACROSS EASTERN 
COLORADO WITH A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS PLAINS WEDNESDAY 
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS AT AND 
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WARMEST ACROSS THE 
FAR SE PLAINS. 
 
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION 
OF THE FORECAST WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND MODELS 
CONTINUING TO INDICATE DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF COLDER 
AIR AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...AS WELL 
AS THE TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE 
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW 
MEANDERING ACROSS THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED AT OR BELOW 
MODEL BLENDED POPS WHICH BRINGS IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATER 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD.  
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIME WELL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LIGHT TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS. STILL A LOW THREAT OF SOME GROUND FOG
MOVING UP FROM THE RIO GRANDE AND ACROSS KALS NEAR SUNRISE
MONDAY...THOUGH WITH AIR MASS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE CONTINUING TO
DRY...WON'T INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN

Return to Home page


Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu