Weather Service Report


925 
FXUS65 KPUB 251114
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
514 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO MID 
50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS COLORADO WILL MOVE 
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE 
WEST COAST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS 
EVENING.  INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING BY 
THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S 
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH HIGHS REACHING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 
RECORDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT 
WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.  MODELS GENERATE 
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE 
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW 
POSSIBLE ON WEST FACING PEAKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH 
40S TO 50S OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...WEAK FALL SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A WEAK FALL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM STILL LOOKS QUICK MOVING AND
MAINLY TO IMPACT THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 50 AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION.

THERE IS A NEW AREA THAT IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN AT LEAST THE PAST 2 NAM12 MODEL RUNS. THE PRECIP SWATH RUNS IN
A BAND FROM THE LA GARITAS...EASTWARD ACROSS FREMONT...SOUTHERN
TELLER AND NORTHERN CUSTER COUNTIES...OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
PUEBLO...SOUTHERN EL PASO...CROWLEY AND KIOWA COUNTIES. 

THE BAND SEEMS TO BE GENERATED BY THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. THE BAND...AS DEPICTED IN THE MODELS...IS ORIENTED
WITH THE JET AND FLARES UP AS THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHOW A BRIEF RESPONSE TO
THE DISTURBANCE...TURNING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. THIS IS A FAVORABLE WIND FOR PRECIP ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SO...WILL BOOST SHOWER COVERAGE UNDER THIS BAND
BRIEFLY TO SCATTERED MONDAY EVENING AS THIS QUICK MOVING FEATURE
MOVES ACROSS. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE GREAT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP BY ANY
MEANS BUT A FEW HUNDRETHS TO MAYBE A 0.10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN A FEW
AREAS.

SNOW LEVELS COME DOWN PRETTY GOOD BY MONDAY EVENING. BELIEVE THIS
IS A RESPONSE TO THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WITH THE MODEL
GENERATING PRECIP...IT IS ALSO COOLING THE AIR MASS IN RESPONSE TO
DIABATIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIP GENERATION. THE NAM12
TAKES H7 TEMPS DOWN TO -2C TO -3C IN THE AREA IMPACTED BY THE
BAND. AT THESE TEMPS...SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER DOWN TO ABOUT 6000
FEET UNDER THE BAND MONDAY EVENING. COULD EVEN BE SOME WET SNOW
FLAKES MIXING IN BELOW THAT. CONSIDERING THE TEMPERATURES AND THE
LIGHT PRECIP INTENSITIES...NO BIG ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...BUT
COULD BE SOME LOCAL LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET ON
GRASSY AREAS. ALSO...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AROUND PIKES PEAK COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO MAYBE 4 INCHES FOR
THE DURATION OF THE EVENT...ENDING TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAYBE
A SPOTTY...BRIEF SHOWER HERE AND THERE...BUT GENERALLY DRY.

TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY MID
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS MILDER BUT WITH
STILL A MARGINAL FROST/FREEZE THREAT. PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO
BLOW OUT SPRINKLERS AND DISCONNECT GARDEN HOSES PRIOR TO MONDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...PLANTS WOULD NEED TO BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INDOORS
TO EXTEND THEIR GROWING SEASON.

AFTER THE BRIEF FALL CHILL WRAPS UP WEDNESDAY MORNING...HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER COLORADO TO BRING A RETURN TO DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY

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