Weather Service Report


189 
FXUS65 KPUB 011028
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
428 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 427 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Active meteorological pattern anticipated at times during the next
24 hours with primary meteorological concerns being locally heavy
rain(capable of producing localized flash flooding)...strong to
severe thunderstorm threat over eastern sections as well as areas of
low clouds and fog at times and temperatures.

Forecast district currently graced by generally above seasonal early
morning early July temperatures, isolated shower activity and
generally low-grade gradient winds. 

Recent real/near time data, forecast model soundings, PV analysis
and computer simulations indicate that abundant atmospheric moisture
is in place across the CWA as indicated by impressive WV satellite
moisture plume and projected precipitable water values remaining
near or above 1 inch over the majority of the forecast district
during the next 24 hours. 

In addition, next round of upper energy impacts the forecast
district from later today into tonight in combination with next
northeasterly to northerly surface surge moving across eastern
sections from approximately 00Z to 15Z Saturday, producing another
round of showers and thunderstorms.  Some of the stronger storms
will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding threats from later today into tonight...including but not
limited to area burn scars. Contemplated issuing a flash flood watch
over portions of the forecast district, however based on latest data
held off as confidence not high enough. If heavy precipitation
trends/signals increase...WFO Pueblo may issue a short-fuse flash
flood watch later today.  

In addition, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms also
exists at times from later today into tonight over eastern portions
of the forecast district as projected localized capes, LI's and deep
layer shear values near and/or exceed 1400 J/KG, -6C and 40 knots at
times respectively.  As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.  

Finally, generally near seasonal minimum temperatures and below
seasonal maximum temperatures are projected over the majority of the
forecast district during the next 24 hours in combination with
generally low-grade gradient winds. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 427 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

On Sat an upr trof wl be moving slowly eastward acrs the state,
helping to kick off showers and tstms acrs much of the forecast
area.  PW values on Sat are expected to range from around three-
quarters of an inch ovr wrn locations, to around 1.5 inches ovr the
sern plains.  in general, the steering flow aloft is expected to be
light.  So, with decent moisture ovr the area and generally slow
moving storms, locally heavy rain and flash flooding remains a
concern.  High temps on Sat wl be below average by close to 10
degrees.  

The upr trof wl move out of the area Sat night, with drier air
moving in. An upr ridge wl be building ovr the area on Sun, and with
a decrease in PW values, shower/tstms should not be as widespread on
Sun.  Temps on Sun should also be a little warmer.  On Mon a
disturbances is forecast to move acrs the state, and there will be
another round of mainly afternoon and evening tstms, especially ovr
and nr the hyr trrn.  The disturbance wl be slow moving and wl not
move east of the state until Tue morning. Thus, there may be some
lingering showers/tstms ovr the far sern plains thru Mon night.

Tue, looks drier again with just mainly isold showers/tstms ovr and
nr the hyr trrn, and high temps a little above average.  Another
disturbance is expected to move acrs the state on Wed resulting in
isold to sct pcpn chances acrs much of the forecast area.  Temps
should be above average again.  On Thu a shortwave trof is forecast
to move by to the north of the area.  It then moves into the
northern plains states Thu night and sends a front southward into
sern CO Fri morning.  At this time it looks like there wl be isold
to sct showers and tstms, mostly in the afternoon and evening hours
acrs the forecast area on Thu, with high temps still being slightly
above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 427 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Moist easterly to southeasterly upslope flow has allowed MVFR/IFR
and even LIFR conditions to develop at COS and PUB early this
morning and these conditions are expected to continue into at least
the late morning hours. Then, the low clouds are expected to
decrease by this afternoon with primarily VFR conditions anticipated
from this afternoon into this evening in combination with scattered
showers and storms developing across the area. Storms that move
across the KCOS...KPUB and KALS taf sites will be capable of
producing MVFR and local IFR conditions at times due to heavy rain,
gusty winds...etc.  Then another round of low clouds will be
possible at KCOS and KPUB from later tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu