Weather Service Report


298 
FXUS65 KPIH 240941
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
341 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER
WESTERN IDAHO WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO IDAHO. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON IS PUSHING
THIS RIDGE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
START AROUND 7000 FEET TODAY BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND 5000 FEET
LATE SATURDAY WHEN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ENDING. TODAY
EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING TO
THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FRIDAY EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES
OVER IDAHO. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EXPECT PRECIPITATION MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER WITH WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOST RIVER/
PAHSIMEROI MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EXPECT 5 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS. EXPECT 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET
ELSEWHERE. RAINFALL BELOW 7000 FEET WILL RANGE FROM AROUND .25 TO
.5 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. RAIN ON SNOW COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS...CARIBOU HIGHLANDS AND
BEAR LAKE REGION ARE AREAS OF INTEREST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...
PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP
MINIMIZE FLOODING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THROUGH BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH SPLITS 
WITH BASE OF TROUGH EJECTING EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY. EAST 
IDAHO CAUGHT UNDER UNSETTLED DEVELOPING RIDGE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY 
THOUGH CHANCES OF PRECIP GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE TIME RANGE. 
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES THROUGH WESTERN STATES TUESDAY THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF DEVIATE BY WEDNESDAY WITH 
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN RIDGE AXIS POSITIONING AND STRENGTH. MADE ONLY 
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST...MAINLY TO INCREASE DRYING 
TREND EARLY AND TREND TOWARD GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPS. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO EASTERN IDAHO DURING THE 
DAY TODAY. BELIEVE PRECIP SHOULD WAIT TO REACH KSUN UNTIL CLOSE TO 
SUNRISE...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS 
TO LITTLE PRECIP THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN ESPECIALLY KPIH/KIDA. WILL 
LIKELY MAINTAIN VCSH MENTION AFTER 18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR 
WITH MVFR UNDER CONVECTION. SPRING WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE SNAKE 
PLAIN TERMINALS WITH 20KTS SUSTAINED POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KPIH/KIDA. DMH



&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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