Weather Service Report


694 
FXUS65 KPIH 231600
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1000 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING 
TO REMOVE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FROM THE FORECAST THIS 
MORNING. WE MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN 
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE 
AREA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN ALMOST NOTHING SHOWING UP ON RADAR 
UPSTREAM FROM US. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

A SECOND TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST 
AREA...GRAZING THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN ZONES. IT HAS BEEN 
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS EVEN AT THIS HOUR...SO HAVE 
KEPT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
THIS TROUGH HAS DIPPED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAYS THINKING 
AND SO FORECAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF 
THE FORECAST AREA INTO WED AND THU. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...THE 
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT 
WILL MEAN NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR WED AND THU. ON THU NIGHT...AN 
INTENSE LOW FROM THE PACIFIC HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND BEGINS TO BRING 
RAIN INTO IDAHO. ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WIND...THE WARM SECTOR OF THE 
STORM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEAR 
TERM PERIODS. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH NEXT MON NIGHT. WAS HOPING TO SEE THE GFS
AND ECMWF RECONCILE THEMSELVES ABOUT THE TIMING OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE INTENSE LOW THAT STARTS INFLUENCING IDAHO
WEATHER AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS STARTING
TO INTRODUCE LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
MAKE SUN THE BIGGEST DAY...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO MAKE IT FRI
NIGHT AND SAT...WITH MUCH LESS ON SUN. HAVE THUS MADE BROAD
SWEEPING CLOUD/POPS/WEATHER GRIDS WITH NOTHING QUITE GOING
CATEGORICAL AND NO ONE COMPLETELY DRY...ALTHOUGH THAT WILL BE THE
CASE EVENTUALLY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG GUSTY WIND CAN BE
EXPECTED...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT VERY HIGH
ELEVATIONS...SIGNALING THE END OF SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER--WELL...AT
LEAST FOR THE REST OF SEPTEMBER. SKIES DO NOT CLEAR DURING THIS
TIME...BUT WHEN IT DOES...A HARD FREEZE WOULD BE THE NEXT WEATHER
SITUATION TO WATCH OUT FOR. THE WPC DISCUSSIONS INDICATED A
PREFERENCE FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...AS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS AN
OUTLIER COMPARED TO ITS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. AM STILL HEDGING MY BETS 
WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO GUIDANCE SUITES.  MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY 
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS 
THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES 
TOWARDS THE AREA. EXPECT WET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE 
ARRIVAL OF THE LOW. VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





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