Weather Service Report


622 
FXUS65 KPIH 011953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO...LOOKING FOR VALLEY 
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S IN MANY AREAS. WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL 
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON....SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS 
EXPECTED TO BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY. MONDAY 
SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AM 
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC CROSSING THIS AREA. THIS 
MORNINGS MODEL TOOK A SHARP TURN TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR 
MONDAY. BESIDES NO CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...HAVING A 
DIFFICULT TIME FINDING A CAUSE OTHER THAN SOME COOLER AIR SLIPPING 
IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND CLOUD COVER. USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE 
WHICH LOWERED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS 
MOS OUTPUT. MODLES ARE ALSO SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN SUSPICIONS OF MODELS 
THIS MORNING...DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WEATHER CONTINUES ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MORE MID AND 
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IDAHO. WE COULD A 
STORM OR TWO NEAR KSUN TOMORROW BUT FOR NOW THAT ISN'T ACCOUNTED FOR 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK INCREASE IN 
MONSOON MOISTURE HEADING INTO MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE 
IN MOISTURE SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS IN THE 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. COVERAGE QUICKLY RAMPS UP SUNDAY 
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED 
COVERAGE OR BETTER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN 
MOUNTAINS...WITH A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND 
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STORMS INITIALLY WILL BE A MIX OF WET 
AND DRY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY WET LATER MONDAY.  DUE TO 
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER 
WATCH FOR ZONES 427 AND BELOW 5000FT IN ZONE 413. THERE WILL BE A 
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS IN EITHER MODE. WE ARE LOOKING FOR 
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIGHT 
NOW...THOUGH THE TIMING ON THAT IS NOT VERY CERTAIN. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING 
FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$

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