Weather Service Report


766 
FXUS65 KPIH 230822
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
222 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE BC COAST AND IS 
RESULTING IN SOME MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE INLAND 
NORTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING A BIT WETTER FOR THE DAY TODAY 
AND INTO TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE 
BUMPED UP POPS AND QPF ACCORDINGLY. PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY FRIDAY 
EVENING PUSHING MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND DRIER/WARMER AIR EXPECTED 
TO BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE PUSHING UPPER TROUGH INLAND 
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST 
IDAHO THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES 
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONSISTENCY WITH 
TIMING. THUS DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS IS 
SHOWING A WETTER REGIME AS IT CONTAINS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM 
ANA. THE TROPICAL SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS 
TUES/WED ABOVE 6000 FT. OTHERWISE SNOW LEVELS DIP AROUND 5000-5500 
FT SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEAST 
IDAHO. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER REGION TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 
CENTRAL MTNS WHERE THE MOIST FLOW INTERACTS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. THE 
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR 
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO 
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY WHERE THE FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE 
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP MORE ON FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE 
MOISTURE FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEP UPPER 
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD 
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER 
TEMPERATURES. COOL AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. HEDGES
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&

$$


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