Weather Service Report


293 
FXUS65 KPSR 051120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL FROM 
TODAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST LOWER DESERT 
LOCALES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT 
COOLER WEATHER IS THE EXPECTED FROM THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK 
AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR OUR 
CWA...AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION 
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS STRONG RIDGING 
ALOFT REMAINS ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE ONLY WEATHER 
CONCERN...AND IT IS A VERY MINOR ONE...IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK 
UPPER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/SE AZ ON FRI/SAT AS A BIT OF 
ENERGY GETS TRAPPED/CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL 
HIGH CENTER OVER NORTHERN CA. THE EURO ACTUALLY TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME 
VERY LIGHT QPF OVER SE/EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AS IT PULLS 
A BIT OF MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...THE 
DRIER GFS/NAM DOES NOT DEVELOP ANY QPF AT THIS POINT. GIVEN THE FACT 
THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS ON CURRENT 
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN/AROUND THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE 
DRIER SOLN...KEEPING POPS WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER SINGLE-DIGIT RANGE 
FOR NOW.
 
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS UPPER LOW CENTER WILL BE TO JUST SLOW OUR 
WARMING TREND DOWN A BIT...WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 
LOW TO MID 70S TODAY...UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY...THEN 
PAUSING IN THE 80-85F RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. THE WARMING TREND IS 
THEN EXPECTED TO RESUME ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES 
OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE REGION...WITH HIGHS 
RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S AT SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS BY 
TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOLING TREND...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS 
IS EXPECTED ON NEXT WED AND THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK 
DOWN AND A SOMEWHAT COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INVADES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL... 
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND 
KBLH... 
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 
THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL FAVOR A EAST/NORTHEAST COMPONENT OVER 
CNTRL ARIZONA...WITH ONLY A FEW HOURS OF A W/NW HEADING LATE IN THE 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT 
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TERMINALS. 


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... 

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN 
ITS GRIP OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 
ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON 
HUMIDITY LEVELS TYPICALLY FALLING INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT 
RANGE...FOLLOWED BY FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL 
REMAIN LIGHT AND FAVOR AN EASTERLY OR NORTHERLY DIRECTION...THOUGH 
SOME COMPONENT OF A DIURNAL UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE CYCLE WILL BE EVIDENT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...PERCHA 
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO

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