Weather Service Report


768 
FXUS66 KPQR 021750
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 
949 AM PST MON MAR  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON AND
NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
TODAY. DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN SMALL AND COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. INFRA-RED
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CLEARING ALONG THE WA AND N OREGON COAST AS
OF 17Z. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY APPRECIABLE ECHOES. THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THESE TRENDS
WELL. CASCADE WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL QPF WITH
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WAS RATHER ANEMIC...ALTHOUGH THE HOODOO SKI AREA
CAM SHOWS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE PARKING LOT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
TAKE LONGER DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MID-CLOUD LAYER THAT EXISTS. 

BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S ALONG THE
ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWED THIS FEATURE. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL
POPS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z
TUE. 

UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR
MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS.
WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR LINGERING THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT VFR ALL
AREAS BY 21Z AS CLOUDS LIFT/CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME SCT MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE VALLEYS. KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG/FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY GET BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
OUTLYING VALLEYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE
N-NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT/CLEAR OUT BY
20Z.  WEAGLE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WASHINGTON. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR WINDS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. THE GUSTY N WINDS COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO WHIP UP STEEP SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF 30 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR 
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS 
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 
     10 TO 60 NM.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA     
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
 
 
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON 
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS 
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

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