Weather Service Report


223 
FXUS66 KPQR 262114
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND 
213 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WARMER WEATHER FOR MON. COOLER WITH 
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE...AND LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A DECREASING
TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. SO WILL MODIFY
RAIN THREAT TO BE JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG COAST N AND E INTO
THE COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS. WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF BURST OF VERY LIGHT RAIN FURTHER INLAND THIS
EVENING FROM SALEM NORTHWARD. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY TO SOUTH OF
SALEM...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. 

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
TAKE RAIN THREAT N AS WELL. OVER NW OREGON...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD FAVOR SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS RATHER THAN FOG. EITHER WAY...BOTH
WOULD NOT LAST LONG ON MON AM. WITH REGION UNDER A WARM AIR MASS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL SEE A VERY MILD DAY FOR MON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST...AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80
FOR INLAND VALLEYS. 

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL 
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN 
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR 
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING 
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE 
STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. 
THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE GENERAL PATTERN AND 
TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT 
SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT 
TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT 
CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE 
COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES. DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY 
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY 
REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES 
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY 
NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER
AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 02Z FOR AREAS
NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR VALLEY...BUT TIMING AND EXTENT HEAVILY
DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MON AFTERNOON.

COASTAL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS AND VSBY...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
04Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO BRING CONTINUED MVFR CIGS EARLY MON
MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TURN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS MON AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT CONTINUED
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BECOMING 10 TO 15 KT BY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE NE PAC ON MON BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS TO 25 KT
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. HIGH PRES RETURNS WED...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. THIS COULD
BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHOPPY AND
OCCASIONALLY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ON MON NIGHT AS THE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
LOOK TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 11 FT LATE TUE AND WED BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND 7 FT LATE WED AND REMAINING BELOW 10 FT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR 
       THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS. 
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA     
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON 
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS 
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

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