Weather Service Report


436 
FXUS66 KPQR 252105
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 
205 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INLAND OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND REMAIN NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND
DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
CASCADES NEAR THE CREST BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A 
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE MARINE 
LAYER WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS
REMAINING ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AND WILLAPA HILLS TO JUST 
SOUTH AND EAST OF ASTORIA. TEMPS INLAND ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES 
AHEAD OF THOSE THURSDAY...SO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 STILL APPEAR 
WITHIN REACH.

AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BUILD MORE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MORE WARMING TO THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. THE MAIN AREA OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH
COAST WITH A FINGER EXTENDING INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO NEAR
PORTLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
INLAND IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. AGAIN...THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY
LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG THE FAR NORTH COAST...AND
LOCALLY INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH SUNDAY INTO CENTRAL OREGON FROM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THAT MAY GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY TYPE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST IN OREGON.

MONDAY IS LOOKING MUCH LIKE A REPEAT OF SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS INLAND
VERY SIMILAR...CLOSE TO 90. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DRY TYPE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST
IN OREGON...MAINLY SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON OR SOUTH OF SANTIAM PASS.
ANY LOW CLOUDS ON MONDAY MAY NOT REACH PORTLAND. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL AMPLIFY AND
RETROGRADE WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED NEAR THE ROCKIES OR EASTERN GREAT
BASIN BY MID WEEK. SOME VARIATION REMAINS IN THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN THE FCST MODELS AND AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH WILL
THAT WILL IMPACT WHERE THE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. SO WHILE SOME OF
THE FINER DETAILS WILL BE WORKED OUT IN TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASINGLY HIGH IN THE GENERAL PICTURE. NAMELY...TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EACH DAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON AND LANE COUNTY
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. EXPANDED AREAS FOR WED ONWARD IN THESE
LOCATIONS...GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BUT ALSO WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE...GENERALIZED THE AREAS AND TIMING OF POTENTIAL FOR NOW AND
WILL FINE TUNE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT
WEEK.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
MVFR STRATUS WITH CIGS AROUND 1500-2000 FT RETURNS ALONG THE COAST
AND COAST RANGE BETWEEN 10Z- 12Z SAT...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING THE SW
WA AND NW OR COAST. MAY SEE SOME MVFR STRATUS WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AFTER 12Z SAT...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 16Z-17Z SAT.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL OR COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. 

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. SHALLOW
MVFR STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER
AFTER 12Z SAT...WITH CIGS AROUND 1500-2000 FT POSSIBLE THROUGH
16Z-18Z SAT. /27
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT 
LEAST NEXT TUE...WHILE THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF WILL 
STRENGTHEN A BIT. EXPECT STRONGER NORTH WINDS TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL 
COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT 
POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR LATE 
SATURDAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WEEKEND. 

OTHERWISE...SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT...BUT BECOME CHOPPY AT 5 TO 7 
FT S OF NEWPORT IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS DUE TO GUSTY N WINDS. THE 
STRONG EBB CURRENTS EACH MORNING WILL ALSO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS 
OVER THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. ROCKEY/27 
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT 
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OUT 
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
    
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA    
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV    
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON 
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS 
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

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