Weather Service Report


916 
FXUS66 KPDT 280312 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
759 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE REMOVED TSRA FROM CENTRAL OREGON 
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL 
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES APPEAR IN THE 
BALL PARK FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER WITH 
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES 
ALTHOUGH TAF SITES KRDM AND KBDN MAY EXPERIENCE LCL MVFR CEILINGS 
AFTER 20Z TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. 
IT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUT EXTEND NORTHWARD 
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PLACE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 
UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE CLIPPING 
THE REGION...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OREGON. ALREADY SEEING THE 
ADVECTION OF SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY 
IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS. UNDER THIS PATTERN THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE 
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE LOW 
100S AROUND THE BASIN THROUGH FIRST OF THE WEEK BUT CLOUD COVER 
COULD ALSO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH I HAVE DECIDED NOT TO 
ISSUE ANY HEAT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY STRETCHING FROM 
CENTRAL OREGON TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AS MOISTURE BECOMES 
MORE ABUNDANT WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS BUT THAT 
LOOKS TO BE MIDWEEK OR LATER.   

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LONG TERM PERIOD 
WILL SEE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A 
TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE 
OF THE RIDGE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S AND IN THE 
80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE CARRIED OVER 
THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THERE WILL BE WAVES IN THE FLOW 
TO SET OFF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE TIMING AND 
LOCATION OF THE WAVES CHANGES IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN SO 
CONFIDENCE DURING ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD IS LOW. CENTRAL OREGON AND 
THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES MUCH OF THE TIME 
SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE 
LATE EVENING MOST NIGHTS. THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND COLUMBIA BASIN 
LOOK LESS LIKELY TO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE THEM DRY MOST OF THE 
TIME. LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL KEEP 
TEMPERATURES UP, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S 
AND LOWER 70S IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH UPPER 40S AND 50S 
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERRY

FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG 
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE 
REGION TODAY IN THE FORM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE ON MONDAY AS 
MORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD. EACH DAY THROUGH THE 
WEEK...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND 
EASTWARD ACROSS MOSTLY THE OREGON PORTION OF THE AREA. ANY STORMS 
THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION 
WITH THEM. WILL MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WELL 
AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE 
NEEDED FOR THE MIDWEEK. DMH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  97  65  99 /   0   0   0  10 
ALW  67  97  71 100 /   0   0   0  10 
PSC  63 100  68 102 /   0   0   0   0 
YKM  61  99  68 101 /   0   0   0   0 
HRI  60 100  66 102 /   0   0   0   0 
ELN  60  97  65  99 /   0   0   0   0 
RDM  54  94  57  93 /  10  20  20  20 
LGD  57  92  61  95 /  10  10  20  20 
GCD  60  94  66  94 /  10  20  20  20 
DLS  65  97  68  97 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97






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