Weather Service Report


824 
FXUS66 KOTX 032351
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to slowly shift east over the next
couple days allowing more moisture into the region. This will
result in a cooler, unsettled pattern with a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain by late
Wednesday and Thursday. Improving conditions will begin again late
on Friday, lasting into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday...

...Thunderstorms on the Cascade Crest Tonight...

Persistent southerly flow and instability as high pressure moves east
will start a gradual change in the weather this week. Isolated
thunderstorms started popping directly on the Cascade Crest
crossing Stampede Pass and I-90 around 2 pm PDT. This will be the
trend the rest of the night as these storms crawl north up the
Cascade spine but are not expected to move much farther east.
Overall thunderstorm characteristics will have light to moderate
showers and possibly small hail. Fortunately most storms will
steer clear of the burn areas of concern in the Cascade region for
tonight. Going into Wednesday as significant moisture spreads into
the region mixed with warm temperatures creating instability, isolated
showers and afternoon thunderstorms can be expected to develop
farther east even into the Idaho Panhandle by late Wednesday
afternoon. At this time there appears to be no significant
dynamics to focus thunderstorm strength on Wednesday. However,
the occasional lightning strike is a concern so be cautious if
thunderstorms are nearby. TC

Wednesday Night through Friday: An active weather pattern is expected
during this period. A meridional trough will be pushing through
the region bringing possibilities of heavy rains and
thunderstorms to the region.

First concern will be significant rain in along the Cascades and
impacting the burn scars causing possible flash flooding. The
timing of this will be Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
Models are indicating a line of precip that will train over the
Cascades bringing a quarter to half on inch of rain for the
period. Most of the Inland Northwest can expect a few hundredths
to a tenth of rain.  

Second concern will be thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. The
best potential will be extreme Southeast Wa and Central ID
Panhandle. This area is expected to have the strong thunderstorms
with small hail and gusty winds. The rest of the Inland Northwest
could get a lightning strike and some breezy winds with storm
cells. 

By Friday, the trough has pushed east of the region and ridging
begins to build into the region. Some rain showers are possible in
the Idaho Panhandle. High Temperatures for this period are
expected to be mid 70s to low 80s. Lows will range from mid 40s to
low 50s. /JDC 

Saturday through Tuesday: As high pressure continues to build in
the region of the weekend, warm and sunny conditions are expected
with highs upper 70s to mid 80s. This will begin to change early
next week as upper level northwest flow will bring in cooler
temperatures and chance of showers to extreme Eastern WA and ID
Panhandle. High temperatures will range from the low 70s to low
80s. /fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Southerly flow will continue over the region through
Wednesday afternoon. At 00Z scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms were confined along the Cascade Crest. More showers
were developing along the east slopes of the southern Cascades.
Expect these to move north over the Wenatchee area between 04Z and
08Z, and they may extend as far east as Moses Lake. Cielings will
remain high and no signficant reduction in visilbility is
expected. The advancing mid-level moisture is expected to form
cielings in the 8K to 10k range area wide Wednesday morning. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  79  55  70  52  76 /   0  10  50  60  30  20 
Coeur d'Alene  49  79  51  71  49  74 /   0  10  40  50  30  20 
Pullman        48  77  50  68  48  74 /   0  10  40  50  30  20 
Lewiston       52  83  55  73  52  79 /   0  10  40  40  40  30 
Colville       46  80  48  72  45  79 /   0  40  40  60  30  20 
Sandpoint      44  78  48  69  45  72 /   0  20  40  60  30  20 
Kellogg        45  80  46  72  44  72 /   0  10  30  50  40  40 
Moses Lake     55  80  52  74  49  81 /  10  20  50  50  20  10 
Wenatchee      56  77  55  72  53  81 /  20  30  50  40  20  10 
Omak           52  78  53  71  48  80 /  10  20  50  60  20  10 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu