Weather Service Report


657 
FXAK69 PAFG 301148
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
348 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS WITH FEATURE STRENGTH AND POSITION.
TEMPERATURES VERIFIED MUCH BETTER WITH TODAYS MODEL RUNS THAN HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SHORT RANGE AND MID
RANGE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AND SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL
FAMILIES REMAINS REASONABLE HOWEVER MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WEEK WITH EXPECTED PATTERN SHIFT. RELIED
HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A BLEND
OF 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 515 DAM LOW OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND CONTINUES TO
DRIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI
SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. A
518 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A 514 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES RAPIDLY
EAST TO BE LOCATED OVER COLD BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES
TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND ANCHORS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA
NUDGES EAST WEDNESDAY AN THURSDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS PATTERN
SHIFTS.

ON THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX LOW CENTER JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND WEAKEN AS A WEAK
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUE TO CREATE DRY AND WARM CHINOOK CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES REMAIN GUSTY BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR. 

A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 75N AND 150W WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR ZONES 203 AND
204 FOR BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS GUST IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR WINTER HEADLINES IN ZONES
202 AND 201 TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE IN THESE AREAS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
NORTH SLOPE THIS EVENING.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH BETTLES SETTING A HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN COOL
BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOWPACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO MELT SLOWLY ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH FACING SLOPES. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES
AT THIS TIME WITH SLOW MELTING RATES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

$$

CCC MAR 15

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