Weather Service Report


457 
FXAK69 PAFG 201248
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
448 AM AKDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...RIDGE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC EXTENDING NORTH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA...AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE AXIS
OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM 150W TO JUST EAST OF THE CANADA
BORDER. SMALL LOW NEAR NOME MOVING TO 170 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FAIRBANKS 4AM THU AND TO INUVIK CANADA 10AM FRI. TROUGH OVER THE
RUSSIAN ARCTIC MOVING ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA FRI TO CAPE LISBURNE
AT 4PM FRI.

SURFACE...HIGH OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND AND OUTER BRISTOL BAY OF 1022 MB
WITH RIDGE NORTH TO CAPE LISBURNE. THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE TO
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND 4PM THU THEN MOVE TO NEAR KOTZEBUE AT 4PM
FRI. 1021 MB HIGH 160 MILES NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO BANKS ISLAND 4PM FRI AT 1026 MB. WEATHER FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA FRI. HIGH CENTER NORTH OF
PRUDHOE BAY OF 1020 MB SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST. OCCLUSION OVER
THE RUSSIA ARCTIC MOVING ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA TO EXTEND FROM
WAINWRIGHT TO CAPE LISBURNE 4PM FRI.

MODELS...IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI ON MAIN FEATURES...AND IN
PARTICULAR THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ARE VERY CLOSE ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SMALL UPPER LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST OVER THE
INTERIOR. 

NORTH SLOPE...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER. LIGHT EAST WINDS ALONG
COAST WITH SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE THU...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY AND THU.
OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE FRI WITH INCOMING OCCLUSION FROM
CHUKCHI SEA.

WESTERN ALASKA...SHOWERS AROUND THE UPPER LOW SPREADING NORTH AND
EAST OVER THE REGION TODAY...THOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW
LIKE OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND LOWER YUKON VALLEY EXPECT LITTLE
PRECIP. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AHEAD OF UPPER LOW TODAY.
ON THU AND FRI THERE WILL BE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT THE
PERSISTENT HIGH TO RETAIN THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS COASTAL AND
MARINE AREAS...WHILE INLAND AREAS SHOULD HAVE MORE SUNSHINE ON
THU. 

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SHOWERS FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREAS WEST OF FAIRBANKS TODAY...AND OVER THE
REMAINDER THEREAFTER THOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LESS IN EXTENT THAN NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE WHERE THE LOW
IS TRACKING ACROSS THU AND THU NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT FOR THURSDAY PM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO EAST OF THE UPPER
LOW...PRIMARILY EAST OF ARCTIC VILLAGE AND FORT YUKON AND SOUTH
ALONG THE CANADA BORDER. ON FRIDAY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTY MILE COUNTRY AS MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES IN OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...THE CHUKCHI SEA OCCLUSION
WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST
SAT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH SURF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE. HUMIDITIES NOT DROPPING TOO LOW DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JL AUG 14

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