Weather Service Report


958 
FXUS65 KMSO 280416
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1015 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...There is a slight chance for a shower or two north of
the Montana border overnight, otherwise the forecast has not been
changed.


&&

.AVIATION...Conditions through the next 24 hours will remain
largely VFR at all airfields. Breezy afternoon winds are likely at
KBTM and KMSO, but will quickly subside near sunset.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / 

..Windy conditions late Friday and Saturday...

DISCUSSION...A flat ridge of high pressure will remain in place
across the Northern Rockies Region which will promote near normal
temperatures with negligable chances for precipitation through
Thursday. Thursday evening a weak disturbance in the flow will
bring an increased chance for some light precipitation to the area
and a chance for some thunderstorms across southwest Montana.
Conditions appear to briefly dry out on Friday and turn warmer in
advance of a strong surface cold front. There will probably be
some scattered showers around during the afternoon, but to minimal
impact.

The biggest change to the forecast was for this weekend. Previous
models suggested another cold, wet and windy weather system. And
although the windy and unseasonably cold elements of the forecast
remain, things have changed significantly with regards to chances
for precipitation. It would appear that the vast majority of
moisture that the models were previously moving into the region
this weekend were attributed to Tropical Storm Marie. However all
the models and almost all the ensemble members move the remnant
moisture west out into the central Pacific and no longer inland
with the approaching cold, upper level trough. So we have
significantly reduced chances for precipitation this weekend,
painting more of a showery forecast as opposed to a very wet
weekend. But in exchange the drier trough will support more wind
and subsequent impacts to boaters and those recreating around
western Montana and central Idaho. The wind will increase
throughout Saturday, likely peaking late in the afternoon with the
cold frontal passage. Cooler conditions are also to be expected,
with both high and low temperatures across the region well below
normal Sunday and especially Monday morning. In fact, frost could
again be an issue Monday morning depending upon cloud cover and
near surface wind.

The weather for the rest of next week appears to be controlled by
a large scale trough. The forecast overall appears to be largely
void of precipitation from Monday will late Wednesday. Thereafter
models are showing the possibility of another weak, Canadian
system that could clip the region.

AVIATION...Conditions through the next 24 hours will remain
largely VFR at all airfields. Breezy afternoon winds are likely at
KBTM and KMSO, but will quickly subside near sunset.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$


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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu