Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KMSO 280929

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
329 AM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...Cloud cover and showers are passing through portions
of the region with the influence of a trough this morning. Skies
may clear some through this morning but will again increase this
afternoon with isolated showers in the early afternoon. High
temperatures are again to be below average and afternoon breezes
will be common. Overall, today is forecast to be a pretty nice

Clearing cloud cover tonight will allow for cool overnight
temperatures in most valley locations, so frost will be a
concern. Model guidance agree that another shortwave will pass on
Sunday that will also be accompanied by a cold front. The
afternoon passage of the disturbance makes for favorable
ingredients for thunderstorms, so high chances for showers and
thunderstorms will exist for Sunday afternoon and evening. Winds
will also be breezy with the cold front Sunday evening and into
the overnight with showers to also linger. The trough may become
a more organized low pressure system as it moves into central
Montana on Monday, if this happens, rain and high elevation snow
may wrap into locations along the divide through Monday night.

Tuesday will begin the transition to a high pressure ridge that
will remain overhead through at least next weekend. The ridge will
lead to much warmer and drier weather, in fact, some forecast
models indicate daytime temperatures reaching 15-20 degrees above
normal by Thursday and Friday. Occasional surges of mid-level
moisture will result in a few afternoon thunderstorms, mainly
across the higher terrain beginning on Thursday.


.AVIATION...A shortwave trough is over north central Idaho and
western Montana this morning which has brought cloud cover and
isolated showers. The trough will begin to exit the region through
today and as it does, simulated satellite and high resolution
forecast radar show popcorn showers to develop early this
afternoon. Forecast models also show the showers to dissipate
early in the day and some terrain obscurations will be the main
impact. A westerly pressure gradient will develop this afternoon
so breezy westerly winds are again forecast into this evening.
Some drier air will move in tonight so clearing skies are likely
with cool overnight temperatures. These cool temperatures may
promote frost in valley locations. Another trough and shortwave
are forecast for Sunday and afternoon thunderstorms are possible
along with late evening gusty westerly winds.




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