Weather Service Report


299 
FXUS66 KMFR 312226
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
326 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MANY WILDFIRES BURNING ACROSS THE AREA ARE RESULTING IN SMOKEY
CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. MEANWHILE, MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORMING THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LESS
NUMEROUS THAN YESTERDAY. SOME WARMING AT THE 500MB LEVEL MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SEEMS TO BE LIMITING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ACROSS SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE WEST SIDE,
THOUGH THIS MIGHT ALSO BE PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE
OVERSEEDING OF THE CLOUDS FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FOCUS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING THE ACTIVITY OVER SISKIYOU AND JACKSON COUNTIES MAY
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE MENTIONED LIMITING EFFECTS, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN, RAINFALL WILL
BE SIGNIFICANT IN SOME AREAS, BUT LIGHTNING STARTING FIRES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.

ON FRIDAY WE EXPECT STORMS TO FOCUS OVER THE CASCADES NORTH OF
CRATER LAKE AND ACROSS NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED, SO NO WATCHES ARE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND 500MB WARMING SHOULD KEEP A LID ON
THE VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS IS LIKELY TO GIVE RISE
TO AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES, WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST DAYS ON THE EAST SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
THE AREA. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/00Z TAFS...

ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP THIS 
EVENING...THEN CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THE LOWER 
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS FRIDAY EVENING.
INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT 31 JULY 2014...

THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH SOME SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WILL 
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A THERMAL 
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN STEEP WIND 
WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS INTO THE 
WEEKEND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS FROM CAPE 
BLANCO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 
GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH OF 
CAPE BLANCO. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON THE GALES AND VERY STEEP 
SEAS...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POSTPONE THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST 
WINDS. IN ANY CASE...THE GALES WILL BE LOW END.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     
- RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ617-621>625.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
  EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     CAZ280-281-284-285. 

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR 
  PZZ356-376. 
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. 
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
- GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/CC/JRS




Return to Home page


Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu