390 FXUS66 KMFR 192204 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 304 PM PDT WED JUN 19 2013 .SHORT TERM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. MUCH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY AS YOU CROSS THE BORDER TO CALIFORNIA. CLOUD TOPS WITH THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE BUT THERE COULD BY A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE WITH A SHOWER THROUGH SUNSET. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE SHOWERS IS BASICALLY CENTERED OVER OREGON. SEVERAL BANDS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THUS...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES RETREATING NORTHWARD AS TIME PROGRESSES. A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROF BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE. .LONG TERM...MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER TROF MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BECOME MORE BOLD WITH IT. THUS HAVE TRENDED FORECAST FOR THE WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS. && .AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS, OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY VFR. THERE CAN STILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS EVENING EAST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT TONIGHT WITH VFR IN MOST AREAS, THOUGH AREAS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST OVER THE UMPQUA BASIN AND ALONG THE COAST. THESE WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY MID-LATE MORNING THURSDAY. SPILDE && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE. $$ KRS/KRS/MAS |