Weather Service Report


502 
FXUS66 KMFR 260339
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
839 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...No update is necessary this evening. A record high
was set today at North Bend, where the temperature rose to 91
degrees. The previous record, 79 degrees in 1944, was
obliterated. Offshore flow was strongest across the NW part of the
CWA and this kept the marine layer at bay north of Cape Blanco,
resulting in the heat reaching all the way to the coast. Folks
traveling south on Highway 101 south of Cape Blanco, however, hit
a wall of coolness as a coastal eddy kept marine stratus banked up
against the immediate coast. The temperature only reached 61
degrees at Brookings Airport (400' elevation) and some areas
right along the coast stayed in the 50s. Meanwhile, it was another
hot one inland with highs well into the 90s over the west side
valleys and into the 80s east of the Cascades.

The thermal trough along the coast tonight will shift inland
Friday and offshore flow will end. This will result in another hot
day for inland areas, while some cooling onshore breezes are
expected at the north coast in the afternoon. Warm, dry weather
will prevail over the weekend.

Please see previous discussion below for details on the cooling
trend expected next week. We may actually see some clouds and
showers around the area as an upper level trough deepens over the
PacNW. -Spilde

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z TAF cycle...VFR conditions will continue over the
vast majority of our area through the TAF cycle. Stratus is creeping
up the coast, but offshore flow is expected to prevent it from
getting north of Cape Blanco. Local fog with MVFR to IFR VIS is
expected to form around KOTH overnight. -Wright

&&

.MARINE...Updated 220 PM PDT, Thursday 25 August 2016...Pressures
have already started to fall as the thermal trough moves out over
the water this afternoon. Winds may occasionally gust to small craft
advisory level south of Cape Blanco through this evening, but winds
will continue to gradually decrease through tomorrow. The primary
threat to small craft through tomorrow morning will be from residual
fresh swell, and the small craft advisory has been updated to
reflect this. Winds will be unusually light this weekend into early
next week as weak low pressure remains over the area, but seas will
exhibit a more gradual decrease. Winds will be generally light and
variable next week as a series of fronts move through the waters.
Seas are expected to be quite light early next week, then they may
increase later in the week as fronts move through. -Wright

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 345 PM PDT, Thursday 25 August 2016...
Hot temperatures and very low relative humidities are expected again
this afternoon and evening with a moderate afternoon breeze. Gusty
northerly winds are expected over northwestern Douglas County this
afternoon and evening. East winds will diminish tonight, but
overnight recoveries could be even lower than this morning. This
weekend into early next week a cooling trend will begin. This is
likely to result in gusty southwest winds in the Shasta Valley and
east of the Cascades Saturday through Monday. Cooler than normal
conditions with some precipitation is expected in the the 6-14 day
period, especially NW sections of the area. -BS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 246 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2016/ 

DISCUSSION...The thermal trough, which has remained offshore for
the past few days, has started to shift inland, and this will
bring the warmest temperatures of the week to the area today and
tomorrow. A gradual cooldown will begin over the weekend as the
thermal trough dissipates and the upper level ridge begins to
erode, but the more significant cooling will hold off until early
next week, when an upper level trough finally digs south into
southern Oregon and northern California.

Models have been nebulous at best with the details, but have been
consistently showing the pattern shift for several days now. They
have also backed off on the timing as the week has progressed.
This has resulted in slightly delayed cooling, and precipitation
chances have shifted towards midweek. While this system should
bring breezy winds and near to slightly below normal temperatures,
we are not expecting overly significant amounts of rain, as models
are showing little in the way of moisture inflow into the system.
For the most part, showers will be limited to the West Side and
the Cascades, and amounts will be light all around. Merely a taste
of fall, but no full arrival.

Looking ahead, many long term models have trended towards a
cooler and wetter pattern that persists through the Labor Day
weekend. The GFS and ECMWF support this idea, as both are
depicting a closed upper level low residing directly over the
area. Should this persist, the "last weekend of summer" may not be
much like summer at all. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for 
     ORZ616>620-623. 

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 
     11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ370-376. 

$$

MAS/BPN/TRW/BMS

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu