Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KLKN 290947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
247 AM PDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture advection continues to progress
across the Great Basin. Satellite imagery shows a small mid-level
vort max moving into Northern Nye county which suprisingly showed
up quite well in model initializations. This will a focus for
deeper convection today with an overall busier day expected in
terms of thunderstorms across the CWA. Deeper mid-level moisture
is moving further into central and eastern Nevada as southwest
flow persists over the region.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday. High temperatures will
settle lower over the next couple of days to the upper 80s and 90s
due to increased cloud cover and a slight contraction of the four
corners ridge with 500mb heights falling slightly over the next
few days. Low temperatures will be kept higher from the lower 50's
to the 60s as cloud cover prevents efficient radiative cooling
through Friday. In addition...dew points and RH values will be
markedly higher through the rest of the week as a result of the
monsoonal moisture push into the region. Forecast closely follows
the past few days of increased shower coverage across central and
northeastern Nevada. Daytime convection will transition into
stratiform by late evening today and Thursday across the area.
However...the vort max currently over northern Nye county could
prolong convection further across central Nevada if feature holds
together. Developing dry isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon are expected to transition into measurable precipitating
events as the convection matures.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday. Weak upper trough
along the west coast will pull monsoon moisture westward across
all of northern and eastern Nevada on Friday for isolated to
scattered thunderstorm activity. Drier air begins to move in from
the west on Saturday confining thunderstorm activity to eastern
Elko county and most of central NV. This drier air from the west
will continue to push the monsoon further east on Sunday with
isolated thunderstorm activity confined to far eastern NV near the
UT border. The drier air will overspread the entire area by monday
for an end to the threat of thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...Moisture and instability will bring isolated to
scattered thunderstorms to central and eastern NV again this
afternoon. The best chance for a thunderstorm will be at KELY at
around 25 pct aft 18z. At KTPH 10-15 pct chance of a thunderstorm
aft 18z. No thunderstorms expected at the KEKO or KWMC terminals.


.FIRE WEATHER...A similar scenario that occurred yesterday will
unfold today with convective initiation occurring in the early
afternoon across higher terrain late afternoon over lower
elevations. Thunderstorm mode will initially be dry but as updraft
matures in addition to the overall increased moisture in the mid-
levels expect a transition into wet thunderstorms today and more
so on Thursday and Friday. Nonetheless...isolated dry
thunderstorms are expected over critical fuel areas including far
eastern fire zone 468 and fire zones 469 and 470 but dry across
zone 467. Much of the convection should stay southeast of the Ruby
Mountains but sufficient moisture will be present for isolated dry
thunderstorms across the Jarbidge Wilderness today and more so on
Thursday. Downdraft CAPE values could exceed 1000 J/KG across
portions of central and eastern NV through Friday which may cause
downbursts and strong and erratic winds near dry thunderstorms
that do develop.

Fortunately...boundary layer winds will be rather light in the
coming days as Pacific trough energy remains well to the west of
the Great Basin region and ridging persists relatively unabated
through the weekend.






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