Weather Service Report


456 
FXUS65 KLKN 291036
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
336 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE IS NOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. AS SUBTLE PIECES OF ENERGY LIFTING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MONSOON
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE
CURRENT SHORT RANGE MODEL SUITE INDICATE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
FOCUSING THE GREATEST BELT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES WITH LI'S TO MINUS 3 AND CAPE RANGING
FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. WITH SUBTLE PIECES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY /MID
LEVEL COLD POOLS/ INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY
AND PWATS AROUND ONE INCH...THESE MODELS FOCUS THE BEST FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER EASTERN NEVADA. THE NAM FOCUSES THE
INSTABILITY FROM WHITE PINE COUNTY NORTHWEST TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY
WITH LI'S RANGING FROM MINUS TWO TO MINUS FOUR AND CAPE FROM 500
TO 1000 J/KG. THE NAM ALSO SHIFTS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FROM EASTERN NEVADA TO A LINE FROM NORTHWEST NYE
COUNTY NORTHWARD TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY EVENING. WITH ANY AREA
WITHIN THE CWA STILL VULNERABLE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER WITH THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZING SOMEWHAT EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. 

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORT TERM MODELS INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
MORE ROBUST WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF AGAIN
FOCUS OVER EASTERN NEVADA. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY'S MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE LACK OF POCKETS OF ENERGY
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL
JUST MENTION ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. IT IS GOING TO BE 
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR NORTHERN NEVADA. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS 
ARE CONTINUING TO DEPICT A MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE 
SHOWING A PIECE OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE. THE EUROPEAN KEEPS THIS ENERGY FURTHER 
WEST THAN THE GFS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA 
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA 
FOR THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT ON THIS LOBE 
LOOK PRETTY GOOD AS WELL. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON 
IT AND SEE IF ITS TRACK PUSHES FURTHER WEST. ONLY REAL FLY IN 
THE OINTMENT IS THE GLUT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN AS 
WELL...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY...AND 
THIS IS THE ONLY WILDCARD SEEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 
ABOVE 1.0 INCHES IN ALL LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO 
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LIGHT WINDS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT 
AND FRIDAY...THE FEATURE WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. 
THERE MIGHT BE SOME SLIGHT DRYING IN CENTRAL NEVADA AS A WEST AND 
SOUTHWEST FLOW TRIES TO SET UP. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DIMINISH 
TO AROUND 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES IN THIS LOCATION...WITH HIGHER VALUES 
SEEN IN THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART...POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE 
ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED CATEGORIES FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE SHORT 
AND WEAK DRYING. AGAIN LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S 
WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE IN UPPER 50S AND MID 60S GOING INTO 
THE SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER 
EXPECTED. 

FOUR CORNERS HIGH CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER SAID AREA FOR 
SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST 
AREA. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN 
THE FORECAST AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 
0.75 TO 0.90 INCHES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS 
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN ALL LOCATIONS. 

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH 
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES 
EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR 
THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL PLENTIFUL TODAY...HELPING TO FUEL SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 
KELY AND KEKO...WITH HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL DECREASE  
CIGS/VSBY TO IFR LOCALLY AT THESE LOCATIONS. OVER THE KWMC AND KTPH 
SITES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE 
HERE...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY SEEN OVER KWMC. ANY TSRA MAY PRODUCE 
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40KT. ACTIVITY WILL WANE TOWARDS 
EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WETTING RAINS EXPECTED AS A DEEP LEVEL OF MONSOON
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH ENHANCED LALS INTO TONIGHT.
ANY STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OUTFLOW
WIND GUST OF 45 TO 50 MPH.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS 
EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN 
ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA 
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT 
RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN 
ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY. 

&&

$$

89/86/86/89



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