Weather Service Report


976 
FXUS65 KLKN 012135
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEVADA THROUGH
FRIDAY...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. 
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL FAVOR CENTRAL NEVADA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
ACROSS ALL OF NEVADA OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETROGRADING WESTWARD BACK INTO
NEVADA, RECENTERING NEAR AUSTIN. DESPITE THE SINKING AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH, THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS STILL
LADEN WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, AND WITH THE HELP OF TERRAIN,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
ZONES /EXCLUDING MOST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY/ THROUGH SUNSET THIS
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE CWA IS UNSTABLE, WITH CAPE OF
500-1500 J/KG, AND LIFTED INDEX AS LOW AS -4. MOISTURE QUALITY
REMAINS STRONG, WITH PW OF 0.90 INCH OBSERVED ON THIS MORNING'S
ELKO SOUNDING, AND PW OF 0.90-1.00 INCH PERSISTING THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION ARE EXCELLENT, BUT SHEAR
IS NEXT TO ZERO BENEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS. AS SUCH, EXPECT
SLOW-MOVING PULSE MULTICELLS WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN. 12Z NAM
SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 50, WHERE HEAVY RAIN WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS
INTO THIS EVENING. STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WILL DIMINISH
PROMPTLY AT SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ALL NIGHT
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 50, AS BEST SHOWN BY 
12Z GFS. VERY WARM AGAIN TONIGHT, IN THE 60S. 

THURSDAY...HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS OVER NEVADA, WITH 
ECMWF MOVING THE CENTER FROM AUSTIN AT 5 AM, TO NEAR WINNEMUCCA BY
5 PM. THE HOT AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH MAX TEMPS OF 95-105
DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNDER THE HIGH, LESS
THAN 10 KTS AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ON THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA,
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 50. FLASH FLOODING CONCERN
FOR THE SW CWA IS EVIDENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PW NEAR ONE
INCH, AND GFS FORECASTING ZERO FLOW AT 700 MB ACROSS NYE COUNTY. 
INSTABILITY WILL CERTAINLY BE SUFFICIENT TO FIRE CONVECTION
THURSDAY, WITH LIFTED INDEX AGAIN DOWN TO -4, SO WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. RAISED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND MENTIONED
HEAVY RAIN FOR THESE ZONES. 

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY, AND DRIFTS SE TO
NEAR WHITE PINE COUNTY. NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR THICKNESS, SO NO
CHANGE IN THE HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 95-105. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY, SW TO
CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO 
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TOWARDS 
EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA BY SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MANY AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S 
ACROSS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF AN INCREASE IN 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED POPS 
AS A RESULT. 

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT WARM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS 
THE SILVER STATE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60. THE MAIN 
FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE 
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOW 
TO HIGH 90S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO 
BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF TIME. 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 
RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE 
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE 
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR KWMC. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY 
RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
EXPECTED. SMALL FIRE STARTS ARE LIKELY, BUT WITH FUELS NOT CURED,
THE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD REMAINS LOW. HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
EXPECTED ACROSS FWZ 455 AND 457 THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. 

TONIGHT...LIMITED CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS FWZ 455 AND 457. 

THURSDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL AGAIN FAVOR
CENTRAL NEVADA /FWZ 455 AND 457/ AFTER NOON, WHERE PW NEAR ONE
INCH AND 700 MB FLOW OF 0-5 KTS WILL RESULT IN SLOW STORM MOTIONS, 
WITH ATTENDANT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. EXPECT
LAL OF 4.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/86/86/99

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