Weather Service Report


997 
FXUS65 KLKN 192225
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
325 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SMOKE FROM THE CALIFORNIA FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. ALL THE WHILE...
A PACIFIC SLOW IS GEARING UP TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
EXPECTING A BATCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STAY
TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CALIFORNIA FIRES CAST A PALL
OF SMOKEY AIR OVER NEVADA. FROM A SYNOPTIC VANTAGE...THERE IS A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGING TO NORTH. THE
MODELS DEPICT THIS PACIFIC LOW TO BEGIN PUSHING INLAND...COMPLETE
WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF. A FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GET
ENTRAINED INTO THE SILVER STATE MOVING DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL AND
LATER NORTHERN NV. BUMPED UP THE POPS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. QPF-
WISE...MULTIPLE LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT STORM TOTALS NEAR OR OVER .50
OF AN INCH. MODELS HINTING AT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. FOR
SUNDAY...THE NAM12 HAS -6 LI'S FROM AUSTIN TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
OF NORTHERN NYE COINCIDENT WITH IMPRESSIVE BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS
AND +1000 J/KG OF CAPE. JUICY PWS EXTEND FROM YUMA AZ TO LANDER
COUNTY NV. BY 6Z SUNDAY...THE PROGGED SOUNDING FOR ELY IS
VIRTUALLY SATURATED FROM 600 MB TO 450 MB...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A CLOCKWISE HODOGRAPH. CORFIDI VECTORS VARY ZONE TO ZONE FROM 5
KNOTS TO 20 KNOTS. SUFFICE TO SAY...EXPECTING AN ACTIVE RADAR
THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT 
WITH HAVING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 
06Z SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...DRIER AIR MOVES IN THUS 
HAVE LOWERED POPS. SHORTWAVE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND 
THEN SHIFTS INTO UTAH BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH WARM DRY SOUTHWEST 
DEVELOPING. AS DEEP TROF PUSHES TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY 
...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY OVER THE CWA LATE 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFERENT WITH THE 
NEXT UPSTREAM TROF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND 
COLDER THAN THE 12Z EC. EVEN SO...STILLS LOOKS WINDY IN THE LATTER 
PART OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 
HOURS. A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 4 MILES AT TIMES AT THE TERMINALS  
DUE TO SMOKE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC LOW IS SET TO MOVE INLAND THIS WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A LIGHTNING OUTBREAK SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE
ZONES HAVE LALS OF 4 OR 5...AND IT IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.
ADDITIONALLY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT DOWN POURS...GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND
HAIL POSSIBLE.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/87/87/97



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