Weather Service Report


305 
FXUS65 KLKN 181102
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
302 AM PST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A change in the weather pattern is upon us as another
stream of Pacific moisture targets the Silver State. A series of
storm systems will bring significant snowfall today through
Thursday with a second storm promising to do the same over the
weekend. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. Fog has dissipated and
temperature are falling to their comfort levels in many valleys...the
single digits. Radar is indicating a band of showers stretching
from Tahoe to Denio and there is some concern for freezing rain
this morning with some very cold valley temperatures.
Temperatures are below freezing in Fallon and Lovelock to the
west of the LKN CWFA. The system coming in is loaded with
precipitation and significant snowfall is expected in two distinct
time-frames to start, the first one beginning this morning over
Humboldt County. 

Today through Thursday evening. There has been some changes in the
upper level pattern within the model, a much more favorable change
to get significant snowfall into the Great Basin. A low pressure 
trough axis will drop down along California today and move along
the spine of the Sierras. Blocking now looks to be less of a
threat as the trough stays shallow and moves east across the
Sierras. There could be some freezing rain to start however snow
totals are coming in line with a general 3-6 inch figure for most
valleys and 6-12 inches of snow for the mountains as the system 
moves through. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect with some 
changes to the timing this morning. Low temperatures will range
from the upper teens to the 20s. High temperatures will range 
from the mid 20s to the mid 30s.

Midnight Thursday through Friday morning. Showers will continue
but the main impact will be lessened. Travel will still be
affected until the roads are cleaned up. Low temperatures will range
from the upper teens to the 20s.

Friday afternoon. Low pressure off the Pacific Northwest will drop
another potent trough down through California, eerily like the
first and extremely moist. Shower activity will intensify over
western Nevada and if timing holds, the second storm will start 
impacting western Nevada. High temperatures will range 
from the mid 20s to the mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday.

Lingering light snow showers associated with an eastward
propagating elongated trough will persist Friday night into 
Saturday but will have little overall impact as far as snow totals
compared to today and Thursday's system and the expected 
atmospheric river event for the Sunday-Monday time frame. 
Generally 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected in valleys Friday 
night through Saturday in advance of the next AR event. A cold 
enough air mass will remain in place allowing an all snow event 
across most of the northern and central NV although the lowest 
valleys across southern Humboldt, Lander and parts of northern Nye
county may see a wet snow or even rain at times on Sunday with 
temperatures expected to be in the mid 30s. Lows will generally be
in the teens and lower 20s until Tuesday morning. Advisory level 
snow accumulation totals for the upcoming system next week will 
range from 3 to 6 inches in valleys to more than a foot in the 
higher mountain ranges. Sunday and Sunday night will be rather 
windy across central Nevada as a robust jet moves into the region 
with 20 to 30 mph winds across parts of northern Nye, southern 
Eureka and Lander counties and in particular, White Pine county. A
quieter weather pattern is expected beginning Monday night as 
ridging begins to build across the region. With additional snow 
coverage and clearing skies, temperatures could get rather for the
middle part of next week with lows in the single digits and highs
in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...Eastward moving precipitation will begin to affect 
KWMC later this morning with freezing rain still a possibility 
until mid-morning before turning to a rain snow mix by noon. 
Conditions will deteriorate through late morning at KEKO and KTPH 
and eventually KELY this afternoon as storm system moves into the 
state. Expect lowering CIGS, increasing precipitation along with 
reduced visibilities at these sites through today and especially 
tonight. Gusty winds will also impact KELY this afternoon as south
winds increase to around 20 kts with gusts near 30 kts.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST 
Thursday for Northern Elko County.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Humboldt 
County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST 
Thursday for Southeastern Elko County-White Pine County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST 
Thursday for Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County-
Northwestern Nye County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-Southwestern 
Elko County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST 
Thursday for Northeastern Nye County-South Central Elko County.

&&

$$

92/93/93

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu