Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KLKN 260908

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
208 AM PDT Fri Aug 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorms are possible across central
Nevada Today through Saturday. Elsewhere, dry and mild conditions
will continue.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. Skies are clear at this time 
however there are some high clouds moving in from the north. The
models are in good agreement this morning with the general trough
pattern. The exact position of the trough axis waffles a bit
north-south from model to model and run to run of the models.
There will be a few thunderstorms popping up south of highway 50
today and Saturday. Drier and mild conditions are expected

The current low pressure trough hanging over the west will very
slowly move south. As low pressure at the base of the trough
centers over southern California, the moisture feed will continue
through southern Nevada, affecting areas south of highway 50
within the LKN CWFA. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to focus
on real estate mainly south of highway 50 today, then instability
will shift a little further east on Saturday, although still
mainly south of highway 50. High temperatures will be in the 80s.
Lows will range from the upper 30s to the mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday.

A generally quiet and dry pattern will persist across the state
through Monday. Northwest flow on the northeast side of a mid-
level ridge will keep deep moisture to the southeast across the
four corners region at least through Monday. Operational models
bring in a West Coast short wave early next week that could bring
windier conditions and possible showers and thunderstorms to
northern Nevada late Tuesday or Wednesday. This feature should
bring deeper moisture northward into the eastern half of NV before
being shoved back eastward for the latter half of the week after
the trough passage. The deeper moisture push from this system may
cause isolated thunderstorms on thursday in eastern Nevada. ECMWF
lags behind the GFS in terms of timing but has a similar track
across northern CA into southwest ID. A strong Pacific storm
system is expected further tighten pressure gradient across the
state later next week generating stronger winds across the Great
Basin region particularly across the central Nevada highlands and
northwest Nevada. This will have to be watched closely for fire
weather concerns late next week.


.AVIATION...VFR condtions at all terminals through the forecast
period. There will be some gusty afternoon winds across at all
terminals but KEKO. There will also be the chance for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms near KELY with the main threat being
from outflows


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop across Fire Zones 455 and 457 today and
again Saturday as a pesky low pressure trough slowly moves through
southern Nevada. Expect a mix of wet and dry storms with driest
storms further north and wetter storms across southern-most
portions of the zones. No storms are expected from Sunday through
the middle of next week.





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