Weather Service Report


308 
FXUS65 KLKN 270224
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
724 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE GREAT
BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY WARM AFTERNOONS AND CLEAR
COOL NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT STRONG GUSTY
WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PASSES JUST NORTH OF
NEVADA.

&&

.UPDATE...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TOWARD UTAH...DYNAMICS
HAVE WEAKEN OVER EASTERN NEVADA. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED POPS AND
KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
NV OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE UT-NV BORDER. HAVE DECREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CWA WITH DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHING. JH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 200 PM / 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

SLOW-MOVING CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NYE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION PERSISTING IN THE NE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WHITE PINE COUNTY WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO ELKO COUNTY, MAINLY
EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS, THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHEAR IS MUCH
WEAKER TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY, EXPECTING STORMS MORE OF A PULSE
NATURE, BUT NONETHELESS SOME STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY. PLACED THIS WORDING
IN THE GRIDS FOR WHITE PINE AND EASTERN ELKO COUNTIES INTO THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO DEPART NEVADA AROUND GREAT
BASIN NATIONAL PARK AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AFTER WHICH TIME ANY
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH. SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY
CONVECTION LEFT AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. 

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, WITH DRY WARMER AFTERNOONS RETURNING. FEW IF ANY
CLOUDS, LIGHT WINDS, AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO LATE
AUGUST NORMALS, IN THE UPPER 80S, ON THURSDAY. LOWER 90S RETURN TO
NW NEVADA VALLEYS THURSDAY. UNDER A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY, FOLLOWED
THE COLDEST MET GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING.
LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON AT SUNRISE THURSDAY, WITH UPPER 30S IN
THE COLDEST VALLEYS.

TURNER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH 
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AS THIS 
TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY IT WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV ALONG WITH THE 
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF ELKO 
COUNTY WHERE BOTH THE GFS/EURO SHOW A LITTLE MOISTURE AND 
INSTABILITY. WITH THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL 
DROP INTO THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH SOME 60S IN 
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER ON TUESDAY AS 
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

AVIATION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE KELY TERMINAL THROUGH 03Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS 
IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSHOWERS AND POSSIBILITY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. 
THE KEKO TERMINAL WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS 
MOISTURE WILL ONLY ABOUT A 15 PCT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 
03Z. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA INTO THIS EVENING, WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS FWZ 470 AND 455. STRONG STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THESE ZONES THROUGH 8 PM. WEST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS, EXPECT MUCH
FEWER STORMS WITH MUCH LESS RAINFALL EFFICIENCY. ALL CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA BY MIDNIGHT, AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS NEVADA INTO UTAH.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY AND WARMER AFTERNOONS, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ELIMINATING ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY, IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S, WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN MIN RH. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. 

SATURDAY...A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF NEVADA, WITH STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS
OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY. MIN RH WILL FALL BELOW 15% AT LEAST FOR SOME
FWZ, AS SUCH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CRITICAL WIND/RH MAY BE
REQUIRED. 

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

87/99



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