Weather Service Report


038 
FXUS65 KLKN 300920
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEVADA TODAY...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. COOL
TEMPERATURES ON TAP TONIGHT. WARM AFTERNOONS RETURN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY.

DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO NEVADA THIS MORNING, AND CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR SPREADS OVER NEVADA TODAY, WHILE THE COLD FRONT HANGS UP
STATIONARY OVER NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO FALL A GOOD 10 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY, A WELCOME RELIEF FOR THE AIR CONDITIONERS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH, GUSTS TO 35 MPH, EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80 THIS AFTERNOON. SKY WILL TREND TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS PW PLUMMETS TO NEAR 1/4 INCH. 
MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HANG ON THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
STALLED/DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NYE/WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
LIFTED INDEX FALLS TO -2C ACROSS THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH PW ONLY HANGING ON TO ABOUT 1/2 INCH, EXPECTING ONLY CUMULUS
BUILDUPS AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WHITE PINE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SE ZONES ON THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL ZONE, BUT 00/06Z
NAM FORECAST LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH. 

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL, WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOW TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MANY. FALL IS GETTING CLOSER.

MONDAY...DRY AND WARMER. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS WASTE NO TIME
BOUNCING BACK, WITH 5-7 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER SUNDAY'S READINGS. 
STILL BREEZY, WITH SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES,
15-25 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. VERY WEAK MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON, 
WITH NAM KEEPING PW AROUND 0.50 INCH IN THESE ZONES ALONG WITH
LIFTED INDICES AS LOW AS -2C. KEPT FORECAST DRY, BUT AN
ISOLATED/DRY THUNDERSTORM IS PLAUSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN WHITE PINE
COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BAT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW 
FEATURED DURING MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN 
UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF 
ALASKA. AS A RESULT...SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH 
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS 
TUESDAY THAN MONDAY'S WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. AS THE 
UPPER TROUGH PRESSES SOUTH...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE 
CAUSING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK 
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AREAS 
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE 
WITH THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE BEST ALBEIT 
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER ELKO COUNTY RESULTING IN ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING 
TO THE NORTHEAST...SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH DRY AND 
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 89

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDS AT ALL 
TERMINALS TODAY. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BUILD ESPECIALLY 
OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 89

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY W/SW WINDS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN NEVADA
AFTER NOON TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (15-25 MPH, GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH) EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN FWZ 468, FWZ 469, AND NORTHERN
FWZ 470. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
TODAY, AIR WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, AND IT NOW APPEARS MIN RH 
FALL TO 10-15% ACROSS FWZ 468, 469, AND 470. LOCALIZED/BRIEF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ELSEWHERE TODAY. 

CONVECTION VERY LIMITED TODAY, WITH ONLY CUMULUS BUILDUPS, AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES, ALONG A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS FWZ 455/457. 

MONDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING 10-20 MPH,
SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN CENTRAL NEVADA. BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99/89/89/99

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