Weather Service Report


214 
FXUS65 KLKN 201132
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
332 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH THE FOCUS ON NORTHERN NEVADA. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE LADEN PACIFIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET THIS MORNING WILL RISE
TO OVER 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON THEN OVER 7000 FEET TONIGHT AS
THE MILD PACIFIC AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA. ON SUNDAY THE AMPLIFICATION
OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE STREAM NORTHWARD
WITH THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NV WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL NV. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND BY
MONDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO ELKO COUNTY. THE
MILDER PACIFIC AIR WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER
50S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM....MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS 
NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN EXPANDS NORTHEAST INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. 
FEWER CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH 
NEVADA UNDER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE 
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TROUGH ENERGY TO DROP 
INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN REMAINS RELATIVELY 
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN...WITH COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS OVER-
TAKING NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO CHRISTMAS. LATEST 
GFS RUN IS COMING IN DRIER THAN THE LATEST RUN DUE TO A SLOWER DECAY 
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE 
LONG TERM FORECAST...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERING OF CLOUDS EARLIER TONIGHT WITH THE 
REGION BRIEFLY BETWEEN PRECIPITATION EVENTS...LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF 
FOG OR LOW STRATUS WHICH IS NOW MOSTLY GONE. CURRENTLY SEEING CLOUDS 
INCREASING/SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WITH CIGS LOWERING AS THE 
SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS APPROACHES. WARMER AIR IS MOVING IN WITH THE 
APPROACHING MOISTURE. EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE ONSET OF 
PRECIPITATION AT KEKO BEFORE AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SNOW CHANGES 
TO RAIN OR POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
LIKE FRIDAYS PRECIPITATION EVENT...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FELT 
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH KELY AND KTPH ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 
THE PRECIPITATION. 
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO 
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

91/96/96

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu