347 FXUS65 KLKN 242131 AFDLKN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 231 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013 .SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP NEAR THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MANY AREAS BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REBOUND SATURDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS A DEEPENING LOW/TROUGH DIGS SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND A SPOTTY SHOWER NEAR THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A TROUGH WHICH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY. LI'S WILL BE NEAR -1 AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES OF 0.4 TO 0.5" SHOULD ALLOW MOST STORMS TO BE WET AND PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN EC AND GFS ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH WILL BE ON SUNDAY BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LEAVE POPS AS IS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. SHOW LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADIAN SOUTHWEST. SO FAR SO GOOD...BUT THIS FEATURE IS ATTRACTING A SERIES OF GULF OF ALASKA SHORT WAVES INTO IT'S GRAVITATIONAL PULL AND THEY END UP DUMBELLING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION. THIS MAKES SPECIFIC FORECASTING TOUGHER...TIMING AND STRENGTH AND ALL THAT. THEY DO AGREE ON PULLING IN RATHER SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS IDEA OF GOOD POPS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BUT BEST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50S AND VERY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. GFS HAS SPOTTIER COVERAGE OF PRECIP WITH EURO MORE WIDESPREAD. ALSO...EURO WANTS TO GO GANGBUSTERS ON THE AMOUNTS AND GFS MORE SUBDUED. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE GROUND...PERHAPS LEANING TOWARD THE GFS MORE. IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPINNING OFF THE MAIN LOW WILL DIG DEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA/COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY AND KEEP COOLER AIR IN PLACE. THICKNESSES DROP DRASTICALLY TO OUR NORTH BUT NOT SO IMPRESSIVELY IN NEVADA. STILL...WHILE THERE WILL NOT BE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS...CAN SEE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET GETTING SOME OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MID WEEK WITH NO ACCUMULATION...EXCEPT THERE MIGHT BE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET IN RANGES LIKE THE SANTA ROSAS...INDEPENDENCE...JARBIDGE...AND RUBIES. FURTHER SOUTH SUCH AS TOIYABE AND SCHELL'S NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR AND MOISTURE FOR MUCH IF ANY SNOWS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT A GIVEN...BUT WOULD NOT RULE IT OUT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...AS IS STRONG UPPER VENTILATION. ALSO...SURFACE WARMING WILL BE HELD AT BAY BY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. A STRONG WARMING TREND WHICH OTHERWISE WOULD TAKE PLACE THIS LATE IN THE SPRING WILL BE HELD BACK...WITH HIGHS REMAINING SOMEWHAT CONSTANT...BUT LOWS WARMING SOME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. && AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH. WILL SUBSIDE TO LOCAL DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT AND GUST AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND NEAR THE JARBIDGE AREA ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 90/98/98/90 |