Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KLKN 240957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
257 AM PDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture is currently moving up from the south
bringing showers Nevada. These showers will continue to spread
in coverage and frequency across Nevada on Monday with an
isolated afternoon thunderstorm possible. A few showers will
linger across northern Nevada on Tuesday, then dryer conditions
will return for Wednesday and Thursday.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. A short wave lifting out of
an offshore upper low will bring scattered showers to all but the
western half of Humboldt county. Models show some instability
this afternoon that is associated with the short wave so an
isolated thunderstorm is possible. Breezy Monday afternoon across
most areas with southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph. Short wave exits
Monday night taking a majority of the moisture and shower activity
with it. A few showers will linger across northern NV on Tuesday
due to a moist southwest flow off the Pacific. With the mild
southwest flow high temperatures both Monday and Tuesday will
remain in the 60s with a slight cooling trend.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday. The great basin will 
be wedged between trough energy to the northwest and ridging to
the southeast through at least Thursday morning...resulting in
warm southwest flow. Expect periods of cloud through
Thursday...heaviest across northwestern Nevada. Models showing
some uncertainty on when the trough will push inland and bring
showers to northern and central Nevada. ECMWF model brings the
moisture back to the cwa by Thursday afternoon or evening...with
the GFS holding off on precipitation until early Friday morning.
Both models have widespread rain across the region by Friday
afternoon with most activity tapering off into Friday evening. At
this time Saturday is looking dry...with more uncertainty next
Sunday as models disagree on the timing of the next trough energy
pushing in from the west-northwest. Temperatures will remain
around 10-15 degrees above normal through the long term period. 


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals today.
Most areas will however see increased clouds with breezy/gusty
southerly winds through the late afternoon to early evening hours.
Showers will be spreading up from the south today...with some weak
instability potentially resulting in some isolated thunderstorm
activity. The area with the best chances for thunderstorms will be
Eureka and Elko Counties. Have added VCTS to the KEKO taf for this


.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture moving up from the south will bring
showers. These showers will spread and become more frequent today
with the exception of fire zone 467. Some instability will be
present Monday afternoon so an isolated thunderstorm is possible.
Showers decrease during Monday evening as moisture leaves NV. A
few showers will linger across the north on Tuesday due to a
moist southwest flow from the Pacific. Dry Wednesday and Thursday
before a Pacific storm spreads showers across the region on





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