745 FXUS65 KLKN 161025 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 325 AM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry today with temperatures trending warmer. A brief pause in the warming across northern NV on Wednesday, otherwise the warming trend will continue through the rest of the week with most valley locations in the 70s this weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night. As the recent upper level low continues to exit off to the east early this morning, skies across northern and central will be mostly clear. Dry with warmer temperatures across the CWA today with the region under a westerly flow aloft. Highs this afternoon will be be in the 60s, which will be 5-10 degrees warmer than highs on Monday. Broad trough energy approaching NV from the north will bring some mid and high clouds to most of northern and portions of central NV today. Wednesday afternoon the base of the approaching trough will clip northern NV, which will produce breezy NW winds of 10-15mph gusting 20-30mph across much of the region. Afternoon highs on Wednesday will cool by a few degrees across northern NV with the approaching trough, however central NV locations will trend a couple degrees warmer. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday Transitory upper level short wave ridges continue be the main story for first part of the long term forecast period. As each ridge moves through the upper level flow, it will keep the flow orientation mainly out of the NW. This will keep conditions dry and allow for a slow warm-up for temperatures. By Friday evening a large northern stream upper level low will be located over northern plains just across the Canadian border, as a weak southern stream upper trough moves on shore over southern California, the inter play between these features may allow a weak deformation zone to drift into Nevada for the weekend. Models still show that this zone could serve as a focus for a few isolated showers before this zone completely dissipates over central Nevada. Model precipitation probabilities have been trending lower with most recent runs with shower chances dropping to 10% to 20%. The main impact of this front will be to flatten the upper flow to more of a zonal pattern, an ending the slow warming temperature trend. After Sunday model agreement is still poor, with the GFS and ECMWF showing polar opposite solutions to the upper pattern. with the ECMWF favoring a northern stream trough across the NW US, while the GFS favors upper ridging rebuilding across the west coast. Ironically these models suites show the opposite solutions this time yesterday. Temperatures and Winds: No changes here as a slow warming of temperatures will be under way, as high pressure builds across the Silver State. Highs will warm into the upper 60s to low 80s by Saturday afternoon plateauing through Tuesday as model solutions diverge. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend with lows warming slowly into the lower 40s to low 50s by Saturday morning and remaining in this range through the start of the work week. Winds relax as pressure gradient eases under the influence of upper level ridging, winds will be generally out of the W to NW but speeds will be 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all sites through Tuesday. High level clouds will be most prevalent across northern Nevada through Tuesday with diminishing mid-level cloud cover overall through tonight. Winds will be light tonight, less than 10 knots, except at KTPH where northwest winds will take a bit longer to subside overnight. && .HYDROLOGY...Many streams, creeks and rivers across northern and central Nevada have elevated flows. Dry conditions are expected the remainder of the week, however temperatures will be trending warmer which will again help to accelerate the melting of the remaining mid and high elevation snowpack. The Bruneau River is expected to remain around 7.0 feet (the low end of minor flood stage) today. The Owyhee River near Mountain City is expected to remain around 8.0 feet (the low end of minor flood stage) over the next several days. Wildhorse Dam is currently at action stage and is expected to gradually rise, but remain below minor flood stage over the coming days. The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is now in action stage and expected to gradually rise today, but remain below minor flood stage. The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain expected to remain in action stage, but below minor flood stage for the remainder of the week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ 96/98/93 |