Weather Service Report


324 
FXUS65 KLKN 251032 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A PLEASANT WARMING TREND THROUGH
THANKSGIVING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RAIN
AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. 

STRONG 592 DM UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING,
CENTERED WEST OF LOS ANGELES. NW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NEVADA THIS MORNING, ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. WITHIN
THIS NW FLOW, PACIFIC MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SE INTO NE NEVADA THIS MORNING. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, KEEPING THE SKY MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY,
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THICKNESSES CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, SO
EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING DESPITE THE CLOUDS. THE MOST
PRONOUNCED WARMING EXPECTED ACROSS NYE COUNTY, WHERE UPPER 50S
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. 

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, WITH 582 DM HEIGHTS AT ELKO BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY, WITH 50S COMMON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW ZONES. MUCH FEWER
CLOUDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING PERFECT WEATHER
TO DRIVE TO GRANDMA'S HOUSE.

THANKSGIVING...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND FLATTENS A BIT OVER
NEVADA, BUT NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS. IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON,
WITH MANY VALLEYS NEAR 60 DEGREES. FORECASTING A HIGH OF 58 AT THE
ELKO AIRPORT, WHICH IS 16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL APPROACH A
FEW RECORD HIGHS ACROSS NEVADA THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT
THE NICEST THANKSGIVING FORECAST YOU COULD EVER HOPE FOR IN
NORTHERN NEVADA.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INTER-MOUNTAIN 
WEST RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW 
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST. MODEL CONFIDENCE IS IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION TO TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BUT 
LARGE RUN-TO-RUN SWINGS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH 
CONTINUE IN THE MODELS...AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH IS PRUDENT AT 
THIS TIME. TEMPS AND PRECIP WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.  

FRIDAY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION 
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BRINGING 
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH. IT WILL 
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN 
NEVADA AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PARKS ITSELF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. 
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE 
SILVER STATE...BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL 
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF I-80 AND SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE 
6500FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS 
TIME FOR THE THANKSGIVING RETURN TRAVEL THOUGH...WITH WARM TEMPS AND 
ONLY SHOWERS EXPECTED. 

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST 
BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA...COULD BE SOME WIND 
CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. TIMING WISE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE 
SHOWING THE 500MB TROUGH SWINGING INTO NEVADA SOMETIME ON 
MONDAY...KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME...WITH DEEP 700-300MB 
PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME 
PERIOD.  

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND 
KTPH THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME MID-DECK CLOUDS THE REGION. GOOD 
FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE STRAIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/95/95

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