Weather Service Report


552 
FXUS66 KLOX 042127
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 
127 PM PST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and warmer today with locally gusty Santa Ana winds
diminishing this morning. A return to onshore flow will bring
cooling on Monday. Low pressure will drop into the Great Basin
Tuesday, with locally gusty north winds and even cooler weather.
Warming is likely for Wednesday due to offshore flow. A frontal
system may bring rain north of Point Conception late this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)

Offshore gradients continue to weaken today, however north/south
flow is increasing and this will generate some gusty northerly
winds through the Santa Ynez range again tonight. Thinking that
most of the winds should be below advisory levels but could see
some brief stronger gusts in the foothills around Gaviota.
Otherwise, fairly benign weather next couple days. The ridge is
weakening as a trough moves into the Pac NW tonight. We'll see a
fair amount of high clouds passing overhead the next few days, and
possibly some marine lyr clouds across coastal LA/Ventura counties
tonight as a weak eddy develops. Daytime temps through Tuesday will
be cooler with onshore flow returning and the cooler air mass
overall.

Breezy northwest winds will continue through the Santa Ynez range
and I5 corridor each evening but mostly like below advisory levels
until Tuesday night when the next trough makes a much closer pass
to our east and generates a stronger north/south gradient and
better support aloft. We'll likely see advisory level winds in
those areas Tuesday evening. Then we transition to a weak offshore
event Wednesday with possibly near to slightly below advisory
level Santa Ana winds across Ventura/LA counties. Temps will warm
slightly at lower elevations but there's decent cold advection
that will offset the downslope heating.

.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)

Pretty good height rises through the end of the week should bring
temps back up to near to slighly above normal by Thu or Fri.
Offshore gradients peak Wed then weaken and turn onshore by Fri.
Some warm frontal moisture moving over the top of the ridge will
arrive on the Central Coast Thu but models appear to have backed
off any potential precip this far south at least early on. What's
left of the cold front will move through late Fri but here again
it looks like most of the precip should remain to the north. Have
left in low pops north of Pt Conception just in case. 

Through the weekend plenty of moisture will continue to stream
into the Central Coast in northwest flow but probably no precip.
Temps will remain on the cool side up north and near normal in the
south.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1630Z...

At 1615Z, there was a surface-based inversion at KLAX. The top of
the inversion was 1900 feet with a temperature of 18 degrees
Celsius.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF package. VFR
conditions will prevail through this evening. Overnight, low
confidence in return of stratus to southern sections. 

KLAX...high confidence in VFR conditions through this evening. For
tonight, low confidence in return of IFR conditions (50% chance
that conditions will remain VFR).

KBUR...high confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...04/100 PM...

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Through 
Tuesday night, northwest winds are expected to be at Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels with a 20% chance for Gale Force gusts at
times. Winds will diminish on Wednesday/Thursday before increasing
again on Friday. A large long- period northwest swell will
continue to bring 10+ foot seas to the waters through Monday.

For the Inner Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. For the waters north of Point Sal, there is a chance of
SCA level northwest winds through Tuesday. For the waters south of
Point Conception, moderate confidence in winds remaining below SCA
levels through Tuesday (30% chance of SCA level winds across
western sections). On Wednesday, there is a good chance of SCA
level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 4 PM PST Monday for zones
      34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(WED-SUN)
No significant hazards expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Sweet

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu