893 FXUS66 KLOX 181145 AAA AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION....UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 440 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... A DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY PRESSURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE PORTIONS OF THE AREA MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOLING TREND IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS FROM A LARGE 590 DM UPPER HIGH TO THE SW. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE MONDAY. STRATUS IS RELUCTANT TO FORM AS COOL AIR FROM YDYS WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS GREATLY WEAKENED THE INVERSION. FOR THE MOST PART STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO L.A. COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE IN THE INTERIOR TODAY AND SUNDAY BUT NOT TOO MUCH ACROSS THE COASTS. ON MONDAY THERE WILL BE WARMING EVERYWHERE WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER HGTS. BIG SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE WINDS AS STRONG NW SFC FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP LATER THIS MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE THE SBA/VTA/LA MTNS...THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND THE ANTELOPE VLY. THE FLOW WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND ADVISORIES ARE UNLIKELY BUT THERE WILL STILL BE BREEZY JUST NOT ADVISORY LEVEL. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... ALL XTND MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM AND NOTHING HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST THINKING. A LARGE COOL UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY THEN SETTLE OVER OREGON AND THEN SPIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH A GROWING MARINE LAYER AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY WEDNESDAY THE ONSHORE FLOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COMBINE TO DRIVE THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE VALLEYS. COASTAL CLEARING WILL BE SLOW AND SOME BEACHES WILL LIKELY STAY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMALS ACROSS THE COAST AND VLYS BUT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL INLAND. && .AVIATION... 18/1140Z AREAS OF STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF VTU COUNTY...WITH CONDS MOSTLY MVFR. N OF PT CONCEPTION...STRATUS WITH GENERALLY IFR CONDS WILL AFFECT THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW TONIGHT...WITH STRATUS LIKELY CONFINED TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST. GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL CAUSE SOME LLWS AND MDT TO STG UDDF IN THE VCNTY OF KSBA. KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL ARRIVE AS LATE AS 12Z TONIGHT. KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...RORKE AVIATION...DB SYNOPSIS...B WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES |