322
FXUS66 KLOX 161025
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
325 AM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...16/212 AM.
Dry and warmer conditions will prevail across the region this
week and through the weekend. Low clouds and fog should also
affect portions of the coast and valleys during the night and
morning hours through the period.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...16/304 AM.
A week's worth of uneventful weather is in store for Srn CA.
A week ridge will nose over the southern half of the state today
and hgts will rise about 580 dam. Sfc high pressure is building
into the north and this will generate some gusty winds through and
below the N/S oriented canyons. There is no upper level support so
do not expect any of the gusts to reach advisory levels. The
offshore flow will keep almost all of the low clouds away with the
only concentrated low clouds in the Paso Robles area, otherwise just
patchy low clouds across the Central Coast. Max temps will be
today's most significant talking point. Max temps will rise 6 to
12 locally 15 degrees today the result of a combination of April
sunshine, offshore flow, and rising hgts. Most max temps will end
up 3 to 6 degrees above normal. The coasts will rise into the 70s
while there will be plenty of low to mid 80s in the vlys.
The offshore flow will relax tonight and the low cloud pattern
will start to reform. Low clouds will likely reform across the
Central Coast and the Salinas River vly.
The skies will be sunny on Wednesday save for the low clouds
which will not last past mid morning. The offshore will be weaker
and this will allow for an earlier seabreeze which will bring 2 to
4 degrees of cooling to the csts/vlys. Hgts will rise another 2
or 3 dam as the ridge peaks and this will lead to another 3 to 6
degrees of warming across the mtns and far interior.
Wednesday night and Thursday the ridge will be pushed to the east
by a weak trof. The trof will bring a mass of mid and high level
clouds - enough to make the day a mostly cloudy one. The lift from
the low along with a sharp increase in onshore flow to the east
will bring low clouds to the coasts and most of the vlys. The
afternoon onshore push to the east is fcst to be near 7 mb and its
likely that the low clouds will not clear many coastal areas.
Look for 4 to 8 degrees of cooling across the board - this will
bring the csts and vlys max temps down below normals. The mtns and
the far interior, however, will remain above normal. Max temps
across the csts and vlys will end up in the mid 60s to the mid
70s.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...16/322 AM.
GFS and EC along with their respective ensembles are in good
agreement for the extended period.
Weak troffing will persist over the area on Friday. There will be
another round of morning low clouds across the coasts and most of
the vlys. There will be weak onshore flow in the afternoon and
this will allow for better clearing. The mid and high clouds will
also be past the area so there will be much more sunshine. The
lower hgts will serve to cool the area but the sunnier skies and
weaker onshore flow will counteract this cooling. The end result
is that there will be hodge-podge of warming and cooling across
the forecast area.
Temps on Fri are forecast to be a few degrees below normal for
the coast and vlys with above normal temps elsewhere. There should
be a warming trend Sat and Sun, with Sun being the warmest day
during the extended period. With the marine layer expected to
deepen by Mon, temps will cool back to several degrees below
normal for the coast and vlys but remain above normal for interior
areas. When all is said and done, however, most max temps will
come in within 2 degrees of Thursday's values.
Weak ridging will build in over the weekend and the onshore flow
will relax even becoming offshore from the north on Sunday. The
amount of morning low clouds will subside and Sunday may well end
up cloud free. Max temps will rise 2 to 4 degrees each day. By
Sunday cst/vly max temps will end up 2 to 4 degrees above normal
while the mtns and far interior will be 5 to 10 degree warmer than
normal. Almost all of the vlys will see temps in the 80s.
The ridge weakens on Monday. The onshore flow will also increase.
Look for an increase in the morning low clouds and a 2 to 4
degree cooling trend across the entire area.
&&
.AVIATION...16/0015Z.
Around 23Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX.
High confidence in the current forecast for valley and desert
terminals. Moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal
terminals. There is a moderate-to-high (30-50 percent) chance of
IFR conditions Los Angeles County coastal terminals and KPRB, and
low-to-moderate (20-30 percent) chance of LIFR conditions for
remaining coastal terminals.
KLAX...There is a 50 percent chance of IFR conditions between 11Z
and 17Z. Any east winds should remain less than 7 knots, but
there is a 20 percent chance of easterly winds 7-9 kts between 12Z
and 16Z.
KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind
impacts are expected at this time.
&&
.MARINE...15/903 PM.
Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence exists in the wind forecast relative to seas.
For the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are
expected to persist through late Tuesday night. There may be a
lull in the winds Tuesday morning, particularly for the northern
waters, but winds are expected to rebuild shortly. There is a
low-to-moderate (20-40 percent) chance of Gale force wind gusts
this evening, and again Tuesday evening, highest from near Point
Conception south to San Nicolas Island. There is a 20-30 percent
chance of SCA level winds Wednesday through Thursday, and a 50
percent chance on Friday and Saturday.
For the Inner Waters north of Pt. Sal, SCA level NW winds are
expected through late tonight. There is a likely (60-80 percent)
chance of SCA level winds late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
evening, highest across the southern portion. Winds and seas
should drop below SCA conditions late Tuesday night through
Friday.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, SCA level W-NW
winds are expected in western portions of the Santa Barbara
Channel through late tonight. There is a moderate (30-40 percent)
chance of SCA level winds west to northwest winds in western
portion of the Santa Barbara Channel late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected from late
Tuesday night through Friday.
&&
.BEACHES...15/903 PM.
A building long-period southerly swell across the coastal waters
between Tuesday night and Thursday will bring a moderate chance of
high surf to south-facing shores. There is a 30 percent chance of
high surf up to 4 to 7 feet on south-facing beaches in Los
Angeles County Wednesday and Wednesday night.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Sirard
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
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