Weather Service Report


083 
FXUS66 KLOX 041634
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARM UP INTO MID-WEEK. 
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...COASTAL CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE 
COASTAL VALLEYS EACH MORNING WITH CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES 
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES 
WILL REBOUND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
 
&& 

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MORNING 
UPDATE. ADDED SOME CLOUDS FOR AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION WHERE A 
NARROW BAND OF CIRRUS IS STREAMING IN FROM THE SW BETWEEN THE UPPER 
LOW ABOUT 1000 MILES W OF PT CONCEPTION AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
TO THE EAST. ALSO WARMED THE SBA SOUTH COAST INTO THE MID 80S FOR 
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 
SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED.

OVERALL TODAY SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH REGARDS TO 
TEMPERATURES. AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION SHOULD WARM A DEGREE OR TWO 
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES AND SIMILAR ONSHORE 
GRADIENTS. TEMPERATURES N OF PT CONCPETION WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME OR 
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WITH THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

MAIN THING TO NOTE FOR TODAY IS THAT ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY WILL 
LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SBA COUNTY DUE TO SUNDOWNER WINDS THIS EVENING 
AND TONIGHT. THE SBA-SMX GRADIENT STRENGTHENED TO -5MB LAST EVENING 
AND SHOULD REACH SIMILAR STRENGTH TONIGHT. SOME WINDIER LOCATIONS 
FROM LAST NIGHT INCLUDE GAVIOTA AND THE NEW REFUGIO HILLS RAWS
...WHERE GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH WERE MEASURED. 30-40 MPH WINDS WERE ALSO 
MEASURED AT LOS FLORES CANYON AND THE NEW RAWS SENSOR NEAR SAN 
MARCOS PASS. SIMILAR WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT BELOW PASSES AND 
CANYONS ALONG THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE...WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND ISSUES 
FOR THE MORE HEAVILY POPULATED AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A LITTLE POP UP RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A DRY CUT OFF 
LOW. THERE WILL AGAIN BE A MINIMAL MARINE LAYER. ONSHORE FLOW 
RELAXES AND MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP A 3 TO 6 DEGREES MAKING WEDNESDAY 
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

A LITTLE TRANSITION DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK RIDGE LEAVES AND THE 
WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHES. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS 
IN THE MORNING. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS WILL KNOCK A 
FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE TEMPS. 

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)... THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTEREY COUNTY 
FRIDAY THU SATURDAY. IT LOOKS QUITE DRY AND ALMOST ALL OF THE 
DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL MOST LIKELY ONLY BRING 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SLO COUNTY BUT HAVE TO WATCH IT AS ANY UPPER 
LOW CAN BRING A FEW SURPRISES. WHAT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY IS THE 
GENTLE LIFT FROM THE TROF AND THE LOWERING HGTS WILL ALLOW A DEEP 
MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN TO FORM AND EACH MORNING FRI AND SAT LOW 
CLOUDS WILL COVER THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL 
SLIDE DOWNWARD ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH THE BIGGEST DROPS IN THE 
PREVIOUSLY CLEAR VLYS.

THE UPPER LOW LEAVES AND IS REPLACED BY DRY SW FLOW BETWEEN A TEXAS 
HIGH AND A GULF OF ALASKA LOW. WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY DULL. THERE 
WILL LIKELY BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE COASTS 
AND LOWER COASTAL VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY 
AS HGTS REBOUND BUT WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

04/1045Z

AT KLAX AT 1030Z THERE WAS A 800 FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH A 
MODERATELY STRONG INVERSION TOP AT 2800 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 26 
DEGREES C.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VLY AND INLAND TAF FCSTS...FAIR 
CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF MVFR CIGS 12Z-
17Z.
 
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR FCST FOR ALL TAFS AFTER 17Z.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF THRU 17Z WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF 
BKN015. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FCST 17Z-08Z. FAIR CONFIDENCE AFT 08Z 
WEDNESDAY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE... 04/830 AM

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY THOUGH WINDS MAY DROP BELOW CRITERIA 
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY 
CRITERIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN POTENTIALLY INCREASE AGAIN DURING 
THE WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL 
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA 
BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL AS FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL.  
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM WEDNESDAY 
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/RORKE
AVIATION...KAPLAN
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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