Weather Service Report


436 
FXUS66 KLOX 261205
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 
505 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will continue to build into the region through
early next week, bringing another round of heat to many areas away
from the coast through Wednesday. Some relief is expected by the
middle of next week as the high pressure gradually weakens and
shifts to the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)

The KDAG grad is only a MB and is trending offshore the KBFL grad
is a MB offshore. The marine layer is about 1100 feet deep. There
are no clouds across the L.A. county coast but the VTA and SBA
coasts are socked in. The best explanation for this is that the
eddy has shifted a little to the west and pulled the clouds away
from L.A. By mid morning the clouds will be gone the problem of
the day will be the temps. SLOtown is the biggest question mark.
They hit 98 Thursday with offshore winds then dropped to 79 on
Friday and shot back up to 96 degrees yesterday. It looks like
there will be offshore winds again today in the morning so the
central coast residents away from the coast can expect a burst of
searing heat mid to late morning and then a cooling trend from
noon onwards. Elsewhere 594 hgts and weak offshore flow will make
today a warm one with vly and inland temps all about 8 to 12
degrees above normal. It looks like Paso Robles will be the
warmest today with a fcst high of 108 degrees.

Another weak eddy tonight should bring some low clouds to the L.A.
and VTA coasts.

Really not much change in the forecast for Monday. Maybe a little
more mid level moisture. Maybe a little more humid at low levels.
Do have to watch the low level RH though because if it comes in
just a little higher than fcst a few areas will see heat index
values sufficiently high for Heat Warnings. Still hot everywhere
except the beaches.

Large upper high to the east really does not change much Tuesday.
Hgts remain near 594 DM. There does not look like there will be
much an eddy and the low clouds should only affect the L.A. coast.
There are slight onshore trends in the SFC grads both to the north
and east and this will allow for a few degrees of cooling across
the coasts and to a lesser degree the vlys, The interior will
continue to sizzle.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

On Wednesday the closed upper high is forecast to weaken into a
ridge and slide slowly to the east. This will start temps to slide
downward. The marine layer will probably only affect the LA
county coast.

The ridge will slowly break down Thursday and Friday. The easterly
gradients will slowly increase through the period. The coasts will
cool to normal values. The vlys and the interior will cool as well
but since the hgts remain at 591 DM max temps there will remain
above normal.

Both the EC and GFS show no sign of monsoon moisture making far
enough westward to affect L.A. county.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z.

At 08Z at KLAX... the inversion was about 2950 feet deep. The top
was near 4150 feet with a temperature of about 29 degrees Celsius.

Overall... Moderate confidence in the 12z TAFs. The reduced
confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in the timing...
location... and intensity of low cigs and vsbys for coastal and
adjacent valley sites. There is a thirty five percent chance that
the projected low cigs and/or vsbys in the TAF will not occur...
or that low cigs and/or vsbys will occur at coastal sites without
them in the TAF. There is a twenty percent chance of low cigs
and/or vsbys occuring at KBUR and KVNY through 17Z. Otherwise and
elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail.

KLAX... Moderate confidence in the 12z TAF. The reduced
confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in the timing and
intensity of low cigs and vsbys. There is a thirty five percent
chance that low cigs and/or vsbys will not occur. Otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. The reduced confidence is
primarily due to uncertainty in low cigs and vsbys affecting the
airport. There is a twenty percent chance of low cigs and/or vsbys
through 17Z. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...26/230 AM...

Northwest winds will remain strong across the outer waters and
the Small Craft Advisories for the area have been extended. The
stronger winds will continue through Tuesday and likely beyond for
the northern and central outer waters. For the southern outer
waters... the winds will dip below Small Craft Advisory levels at
times but will be near criteria through at least early tomorrow
morning.

For the inner waters... northwest winds will be strongest each
afternoon and evening over the next few days with a thirty percent
chance of gusts reaching advisory levels north of Point
Conception. For the southern inner waters... winds will remain
below advisory levels through early next week. There is a slight
chance of gusts reaching advisory levels across western sections
each afternoon and evening... especially across the western Santa
Barbara Channel.

Locally dense fog will occur across the coastal waters this morning...
especially south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 5 PM PDT this
      afternoon For zones 34-35-40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday For zone
      676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu