Weather Service Report


130 
FXUS66 KLOX 231634 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

DECREASING WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER SUNNY SKIES 
ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL 
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT 
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS... PRIMARILY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE 
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES SOARING 
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
.MID-MORNING DISCUSSION UPDATE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE DIMINISHED AND THE WIND ADVISORIES WILL 
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN SOME LOCATIONS 
INTO MIDDAY... IN PARTICULAR IN THE MONTECITO AREA... BUT THESE ARE 
LOCALIZED ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT AN EXTENSION TO THE ADVISORY.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND ONLY A FEW 
TWEAKS ARE ANTICIPATED RATHER THAN ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES.  PRIMARY 
ISSUES TO REVIEW WILL BE THE WINDS TONIGHT... THE INCOMING 
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY... AND RETURN OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 
PUSHING TRIPLE DIGITS NEXT WEEK.  WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY 
AGAIN THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE 
TIMING AND THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH 
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL BE REVISITED BUT LUKS GUD FOR NOW THOUGH 
WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.  SAME FOR 
THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

.EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE CLEAR SAVE FOR A SMATTERING OF HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOTS 
OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE LA COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VLY. LOW END WIND 
ADVISORIES CONTINUE AND WILL LAST UNTIL MID MORNING. THE WINDS 
ACTUALLY ARE PRETTY UNDERWHELMING BUT MAY GET A LITTLE BOOST AROUND 
DAWN. BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR 
ADVECTION GONE THE WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A 
LITTLE POP UP RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AND THIS ALONG WITH THE 
SUNNY SKIES AND OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR A 
DECENT WARM UP COMPARED TO YDY.

THAT RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REBUILD THE MARINE INVERSION AND WITH 
BUILDING ONSHORE FLOW MARINE STRATUS SHOULD FORM AND MOVE OVER THE 
L.A. COAST. OTHER THAN THESE CLOUDS THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. 
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE OVER MOST AREAS AS HGTS RISE A FEW MORE DM. 
THE EXCEPTION IS THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLER DUE TO 
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW.

A TROF ASSOC WITH A COLD (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) LOW APPROACHES THE 
STATE TU NIGHT. THE TROF WILL LIFT UP THE MARINE LAYER AND STRATUS 
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTS AND INTO ALL THE VLYS. ELSEWHERE SKIES 
WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE 
STATE.

THIS IS A PRETTY DRY SYSTEM AND IT WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A RAIN MAKER. 
NAM IS VERY DRY AND GFS IS NOT MUCH WETTER. EC IS THE ODD MDL OUT 
AND IT BRINGS LIGHT RAIN TO ALL AREAS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE 
ONLY AREAS THAT WILL SE A CHANCE OF RAIN ARE SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND 
THE MTNS OF LA AND VTA COUNTIES. RAINFALL IF ANY WILL BE LESS THAN A 
TENTH OF AN INCH. MAX TEMPS WILL PLUMMET WITH THE FALLING HEIGHTS 
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE THE BIGGER STORY 
WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVING ON THE HEALS OF THE 
FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES LOOKS LIKELY.

WHAT LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN THERE IS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND THE 
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE NW. BREEZY NORTHWEST CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OVER THE LA/VTA MTNS WILL REMAIN 
DURING THE MORNING OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CLEAR. STILL LOTS OF COLD 
AIR IN PLACE AND MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM FRIDAYS BELOW 
NORMAL READINGS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-TUE)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT A NICE WARM UP IS ON TAP FOR THE XTND 
PERIOD. HGTS WILL RISE AS DRY NW FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND 
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE SOME BUT MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL. A 
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY. 
WEAK NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO 
MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP MONDAY AND 
ALL AREAS WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TUESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL THEN 
SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THERE SHOULD BE A GOODLY AMOUNT OF 90 
DEGREE READINGS (REMEMBER THE SUN ANGLE WILL BE THE SAME AS MID 
AUGUST) AND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IN THE OFFICIAL FCST CANNOT RULE OUT 
A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. 

IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL BE AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER THAN TUESDAY.

ALL THEM MDLS GIVE UP AND GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS THURSDAY SO THE 
FATE OF THE HEAT WAVE IS A MYSTERY RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1125Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS 
PREVAILING ACROSS MAJORITY OF AREA DUE TO WEAK INVERSION AND MIXING 
OF WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS 
THE LAX COASTAL PLAIN (AROUND KLGB). EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO 
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE OR A LITTLE LATER...WITH VFR CONDS FOR ALL
AREAS EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE 
IN RETURN OF IFR CIGS TO KLAX/KLGB. 

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS 
THRU THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
12Z AND 16Z. FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RETURN/TIMING OF 
IFR CIGS TONIGHT. 

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE
LLWS/TURBULENCE THRU 18Z THIS MORNING. 

&&

.MARINE...23/915 AM PDT...

NORTHWEST GALES CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS TODAY...WITH GUSTS OF 
28 TO 32 KNOTS AT THE BUOYS FROM SAN NICOLAS ISLAND UP TO CAPE SAN 
MARTIN AT 9 AM PDT...WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 FEET AT 12 SECONDS. THE GALES 
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS AT SMALL 
CRAFT LEVEL ACROSS MUCH OF THE INNER WATERS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE 
LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA 
BARBARA CHANNEL. WINDS ACROSS PZZ655 WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...UP 
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS 
OFFSHORE...EXPECT HAZARDOUS SEAS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
COASTAL WATERS AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. 

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE MODELS 
ARE NOW DEPICTING STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY 
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH GALES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS 
INCLUDING THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE WINDS 
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HAZARDOUS 
BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO 
LARGE SHORT PERIOD SEAS.  

IN ADDITION TO STEEP NORTHWEST SEAS...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL 
BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET WILL BRING RISING SURF TO MOST OF THE 
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA SURF ZONE. 

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE/KJ
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









Return to Home page


Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu