Weather Service Report


014 
FXUS66 KLOX 232340 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A HIGH SYSTEM WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...INLAND FAIR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT COASTAL 
CLOUDS. BREEZY WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO 
THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL COOL A 
FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WARMING TREND ON TAP NEXT WEEK.
 
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FORECAST ON TRACK AND MINIMAL CHANGES HAVE 
BEEN MADE. HIGHS TODAY ENDED UP BEING A SKOSH WARMER THAN EXPECTED 
(1-2 DEGREES) AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO 
THU. THAT STILL SHOULD KEEP MOST OFFICIAL RECORDS IN TACT. THE 
EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE SBA WHICH ONLY HAS TO REACH 82 TO EQUAL THE 
PREVIOUS RECORD AND SANTA MARIA WHICH HAS A REACHABLE 84 FOR A 
RECORD. OTHERS WOULD REQUIRE A MUCH WARMER DAY THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY 
CALLING FOR. 

WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE WIND GUSTS IN 
THE LOW 30S AT 1 PM BELOW THE WESTERN PASSES AND CANYONS AND I 
EXPECT WE'LL SEE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 40 MPH LATER TODAY AND THIS 
EVENING. 

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY CIRCULATION 
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FOR 
COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. WE MAY ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF A VERY SHALLOW 
MARINE LYR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST 
AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A DEGREE 
OR TWO COOLER SAT, THOUGH EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT COOLING TREND HIGHS 
WILL STILL BE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. 

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
START TO RESTRENGTHEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PUSH TEMPS BACK UP A 
FEW DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY HINT AT A POSSIBLE 
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO 
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE 
DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS SO WILL KEEP A 
DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW. 

&&

.AVIATION...23/2340Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A 
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z AT LOS ANGELES COASTAL 
AND CENTRAL COAST TERMINALS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY 
STRONG WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA THROUGH 08Z. 

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT 
FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. NO 
WIND ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO 
WIND ISSUES.


&&

.MARINE...23/300 PM

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT 
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS 
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS. 
 
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



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