Weather Service Report


252 
FXUS66 KLOX 272006
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
105 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO 
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING 
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...WARM START TO THE WEEK WITH GUSTY SANTA 
ANA WINDS TODAY IN VENTURA/LA COUNTIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS 
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THE REST OF THE 
WEEK BUT LINGERING OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL 
MAINTAIN TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND SOME LOW 90S AT LEAST FOR THE 
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THU. BEACHES WILL SEE A LITTLE COOLING BY WED 
AS GRADIENTS TURN ONSHORE BUT IT WILL STILL BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE 
NORMAL AT THE COAST AND 10-15 ABOVE FOR THE INLAND AREAS. SKIES WILL 
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS 
WED/THU.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TROFFING WILL REPLACE RIDGING LATE IN THE 
WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR 
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH MARINE LYR CLOUDS 
RETURNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY 
BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

AT 1714Z AT KLAX...A WEAK INVERSION WAS BASED AT 300 FEET WITH THE 
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1000 FEET AND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN VENTURA 
COUNTY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.  

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS 
POSSIBLE.   

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM.
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SUBSTANDARD THIS MORNING. A LATE SURGE OF SANTA 
ANA WINDS FORCED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THIS 
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GETTING RAISED IN THE INNER 
WATERS FOR NE WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 
COAST UNTIL 3 PM. IN THE OUTER WATERS CONDITIONS HAVE SUBSIDED SO 
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE WARNING CONDITIONS IN THE 
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 
THERE MAY BE A GALE WATCH POSTED THIS AFTERNOON. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA 
COUNTIES TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90 
DEGREES IN WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF 
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL 
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE 
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY 
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT 
SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING. 

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION 
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE 
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. VERY WARM AND DRY 
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



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