Weather Service Report


783 
FXUS66 KHNX 272155
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
255 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT
COOLING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CAL
INTERIOR AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE WEST COAST. WHILE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN/INTER-MTN WEST...SHORT RANGE PROGS DO HAVE IT SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST AS A TROF PUSHES ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...
FORT ORD PROFILER IS SHOWING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...BUT IT IS
TRENDING TOWARD BECOMING DEEPER. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
PUSH INTO THE BAY AREA TONIGHT AND ADVANCE TOWARD THE CENTRAL CAL
INTERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE COOLER MARINE AIR.

TEMPERATURES...WHICH HAVE BEEN REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
...WILL SEE A DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS MARINE AIR FILTERS
INTO THE VALLEY. WILL EXPECT AS MUCH AS A TEN DEGREE-F DROP IN
VALLEY TEMP/S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO
THE EAST. DURING THE PUSH OF MARINE AIR INTO THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT
...WILL SEE SURFACE WINDS BLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 MPH...
WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH...AND MAINLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ALONG THE INTERSTATE-5 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN DRY DURING MOST OF ITS PASSAGE...BUT MAY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...
DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL KEEP
CONVECTION TO MINIMAL CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAY EVEN SEE
A VERY LIGHT SHOWER NEAR THE GRAPEVINE FROM CLOUDS THAT BANK UP
AROUND THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
 
WHILE THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE
HAVE WEAKEN. THEREFORE...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 80S BEFORE ATTEMPTS TO PUSH ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF TROFS ARE PROGGED TO THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PARK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SERIES OF TROF IS GROWING AS MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S TOWARD NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE DISTRICT DRY AFTER THIS
WEEKENDS CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972
KFAT 03-29       87:1969     47:1982     59:1986     32:1891

KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907
KBFL 03-29       94:2004     55:1998     58:1978     23:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

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