Weather Service Report


294 
FXUS66 KHNX 242145
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
245 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will take place over central California through
early next week, with cooling beginning mid week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Significant warming continues to take place over
central California as upper level high pressure over the eastern
Pacific nudges east over the California coastline. Temperatures
were generally between 3 and 10 degrees warmer compared to 24
hours ago and are forecast to warm to near climatological normals
in the next few hours. 

The warming trend continues Sunday into Monday as the ridge axis
shifts east. Monday looks to be the warmest day of the week, with
San Joaquin Valley temperatures warming into the upper 90s. These
temperatures are around 10 degrees above normal for the end of
September.

Forecast confidence is high with regards to the warming trend
through the beginning of next week as the short term and medium
range models are all in agreement. Additionally, NCEPs global
ensemble is indicating high predictability with the upper level
pattern through Monday.

The forecast becomes a bit more tricky beginning Tuesday as an upper
low over Baja California begins to move slowly north into southern
California. The operational models and ensemble means are in good
agreement with the track of the low through at least Wednesday
morning, with model deviation beginning Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday morning. Predictability with the upper feature is low at
this point. However, as of now, this low is forecast to bring a
few extra clouds and a subtle cooling trend. All of the
precipitation is forecast to remain to the south and east of the
area. However, we will continue to watch this closely, as any
subtle change in the track of the low could mean precip for Kern
Co and/or the southern Sierra Nevada.

Otherwise, more significant cooling will occur over central
California Thursday into Friday. An upper low is forecast to be
located just off the British Colombia coastline on Thursday with
the upper trough dipping into northern California. The upper
trough will dig into central and southern California Friday into
Saturday. Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees below
normal with continued cooling forecast for Saturday. All
precipitation with this storm will remain well to the north of the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail over the Central CA interior during the
next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...Riley
avn/fw...DCH
synopsis...Riley

weather.gov/hanford

Return to Home page


Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu