Weather Service Report


175 
FXUS66 KHNX 222220 CCA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
320 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CORRECTED FOURTH PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA...RESULTING IN A MINOR WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY AS 
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES 
EAST OF THE STATE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW MOVING INTO ARIZONA CAUSED AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE DOMINANT FLOW ALOFT 
WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE DEEPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. THE TROUGH WILL BRING AN ONSHORE 
SURFACE FLOW...ADVECTING COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN 
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD 
TIME GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH ONLY MODEST 
WARMING SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT 
AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT 
WEEK...AND NEXT WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK 
WITH THE HOTTEST SPOTS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HITTING TRIPLE 
DIGITS.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT 
THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING LIGHT QPF ALONG THE SIERRA 
NEVADA CREST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DEVELOP A TROPICAL LOW OFF THE MEXICAN 
PACIFIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE MODEL TRAJECTORY IS WELL 
OFFSHORE. THE MODELS HAVE HAD TROUBLE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM...AND 
EVEN THE 12Z GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN THE ECMWF OR THE 
06Z GFS...HAS THE LOW NEAR 30N/130W AT 18Z FRIDAY...STILL WEST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS THE LOW ALONG 130W AT THAT 
TIME...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AT 26N. GIVEN THE MODEL PROBLEMS WITH THIS 
LOW...CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL TRAJECTORY IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-22      108:1897     81:1960     75:1995     50:1899
KFAT 08-23      112:1891     79:1959     78:1913     51:1960
KFAT 08-24      112:1891     81:1930     80:1913     51:1973

KBFL 08-22      109:1919     82:1983     78:2009     44:1903
KBFL 08-23      110:1913     83:1960     80:1982     49:1915
KBFL 08-24      112:1913     82:1963     79:1967     45:1903

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

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