Weather Service Report


396 
FXUS66 KHNX 260204
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
704 PM PDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Air quality issues section updated.

&& 

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will rise to much above normal by Sunday and dry
weather will continue across central California through the middle
of next week as high pressure strengthens over the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV imagery indicating a dry upper ridge is now
building over CA resulting in continued clear skies for our area
along with decreased winds as p-grads have plummeted today.
Temperatures are currently running 3-6 deg F above yday and the
strengthening ridge will bring another lengthy period of above
normal temperatures to our area.

The 12Z WRF and SREF indicate the ridge will strengthen over the
desert southwest on Sunday and Monday with rises in heights and
diurnal thicknesses providing for temperatures rising to well
above normal. By Sunday afternoon highs will reach the triple
digits across most of the San Joaquin Valley and southern Sierra
foothills along with the Kern County deserts. Monday is expected
to be even hotter as 850 mb rise to 26-28 DEG C with highs across
much of the valley nearing 105 DEG F. By Tuesday, an offshore flow
develops as the ridge continues to strengthen over the Great
Basin. Temperatures will continue to nudge upward as a result and
some locations might approach their daily records. With this
airmass bring fairly dry am not anticipating the need for an
excessive heat warning temperatures as there will be significant
diurnal cooling taking place at night.

The medium range models indicate the ridge will remain in place
over the Great Basin on Wednesday and Thursday then slowly break
down toward the end of the week as the next trough reaches the PAC
NW. RH progs are indicating some upper level tropical moisture
will push into Socal by midweek and provide for some potential for
elevated convection. Will mention a slight chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms near and along the southern Sierra crest for
Wednesday through Friday. By next weekend the upper flow will
turn toward the west as the trough pushes through the PAC NW and
brings drier air aloft. Temperatures will remain well above
seasonal normals on Wednesday and Thursday although then lower on
Friday and Saturday closer to seasonal normals as the upper ridge
breaks down.

&&

.AVIATION...
Smoke from the Erskine wildfire causing reduced visibilities in the
vicinity of Lake Isabella. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the Central California interior during the next 24 hours. 

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Sunday June 26 2016... Unhealthy in Fresno... Kern... Kings and
Tulare Counties and Sequoia National Park and Forest. Unhealthy
for sensitive groups in Madera and Merced Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...Rowe
avn/fw...Durfee
prev discussion...DS 
synopsis...WP

weather.gov/hanford

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