Weather Service Report


922 
FXUS66 KHNX 292049
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
149 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, A WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRUSH THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AGAIN INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END 
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST AREA OTHER
THAN SOME CUMULUS OVER THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND SOME THIN
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONG FETCH
OF DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET CHANNELED FROM NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND INTO OREGON. THIS IS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS
PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND FORM A CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES THROUGH, MOISTURE AND LIFT BOTH TOPOGRAPHICALLY AND
DYNAMICALLY INFLUENCED WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVER BOTH THE SIERRA AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AFTERNOON'S OPERATIONAL RUNS OF MODELS
AGREE NICELY WITH ENSEMBLES THUS THE FORECAST REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED DURING THIS PERIOD.

BY MONDAY, THE LOW MOVES EAST WITH SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND CONVECTION AS
TEMPERATURES WARM UP IN THE INCREASED HEIGHTS. MODELS SHOW THAT
ANY WARM UP WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
PROJECTED TO FEATURE A DEEP CLOSED LOW OFF THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINNING MID WEEK. SOME PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
AS THE CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. FOR SURE IT WILL BE
COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY.


&&

.AVIATION...
BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

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