Weather Service Report


689 
FXUS65 KTFX 180457
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Thu Apr 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...Radar echoes continue to expand over Central Montana this 
evening. Have sent out a second update to increase pops to likely at 
Great Falls and northeastward through Chouteau/Hill Counties for the 
remainder of the evening. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
Moisture and energy in the southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an 
approaching shortwave trough will generally obscure mountain tops  
in rain/snow showers across north central and southwest Montana 
through at least 14Z. Mid level cloudiness and scattered rain will 
also continue at lower elevations. Conditions there will mostly 
remain at low VFR levels, but occasional MVFR ceilings are possible 
with some showers. After 14Z, the shortwave will move across western 
and central Montana, pushing the cold front west across the area. 
This will bring widespread strong and gusty westerly winds to the 
area, which will help diminish the showers and clear out the skies. 
Most areas will have westerly winds of 20 to 25 kt with gusts of up 
to 40 kt by 20Z, but areas along the Rocky Mountain Front will 
likely have gusts in excess of 45 kt.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 700 PM MDT Thu Apr 17 2014/
Tonight through Sunday Evening...High pressure over the region will 
continue to degrade from the west as an approaching low pressure 
system heads for Montana tonight. The passing front will bring gusty 
winds and scattered showers to the Continental Divide today, with 
increasing chances of precipitation over Southwest and portions of 
Central Montana Friday. Winds along the Rocky Mountain Front will 
pick up in speed and look to approach high wind criteria. The event 
still looks to be right on the edge of high wind so the high wind 
watch will continue. Winds and showers decrease Friday night as the 
trof moves east. High pressure rebuilds over the area Saturday 
providing dry and warmer conditions. Yet another shortwave trough 
heads for the region Sunday, but its impact looks fairly minimal at 
this point. Showers over the Continental Divide and gusty winds 
look possible but widespread precipitation is not expected. 
Afternoon temperatures will remain in the 50s today and Friday 
before Saturday and Sunday should climb into the 60s.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Southwest flow aloft will reside
over the region...resulting in mostly dry conditions on Monday and
increasing chances for precip by late Tuesday as the airmass becomes 
a bit unstable. There is even a small chance for thunderstorms 
Tuesday afternoon over Southwest MT. For Tuesday night and 
Wednesday...expect a fairly strong area of low pressure to move 
through the region. Widespread precipitation amounts of a 0.25 to 
0.75 inches are expected over the region...with the heaviest precip 
likely falling Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Latest 
forecast models continue to struggle with the movement and intensity 
of the mid-week system, with some notable inter-model and run-to-run 
differences between the GFS and ECMWF solutions on precipitation 
amounts. Further adjustments in the solutions are likely, and we 
will continue to monitor closely, with the precip amounts being the 
primary focus because of possible flooding impacts if the higher 
amounts do verify. Additionally...temperatures will cool quite a bit 
for Wed/Thu due to clouds/precip. Brusda\Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  56  31  64 /  70  30  10   0 
CTB  37  51  29  60 /  20  30  20   0 
HLN  42  57  34  66 /  40  30  10   0 
BZN  37  59  29  66 /  30  60  20   0 
WEY  34  52  26  54 /  50  80  30   0 
DLN  38  59  29  65 /  40  40  20   0 
HVR  39  61  31  63 /  30  50  30   0 
LWT  37  57  28  61 /  20  30  20   0 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening 
Eastern Glacier.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM Friday to Midnight MDT Friday Night 
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

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