Weather Service Report


147 
FXUS65 KTFX 022346
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS WE
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE YET. THUS...VERY
WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MILD/WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. AN ISOLATED PASSING THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND AGAIN ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...A CANADIAN COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THE COOL FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
CUT BANK AREA AROUND 4 PM AND IN THE GREAT FALLS AREA AROUND 7 PM.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COOL
FRONT. A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS COULD LEAD TO IMPACTS
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BRUSDA

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A REX BLOCK PATTERN TO BE ESTABLISHED 
SATURDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS MAINTAINED THROUGH EARLY 
TUESDAY. THIS SUPPORTS A WEAKLY CONFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS 
MONTANA SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE REFRESHING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO 
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS WARMER AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. SUNNY 
AND WARMER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN FOR MONDAY.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPICTED CONSISTENTLY IN MODEL GUIDANCE 
DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY AS THE PACIFIC 
RIDGE DECAYS. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL 
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. SOME THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY 
RAINFALL AS SOUTHWEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO THE MIX. TEMPERATURES 
TREND DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE 
FORECASTS SUGGEST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE CLOSED 
LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL 
INFLUENCE MID LAYER STABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NUTTER

&&

.AVIATION

UPDATED 2345Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS 
A THREAT OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN 
PLAINS. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MONTANA THIS 
EVENING AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 
OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW 15000 FT MSL 
AND ALSO VARIABLE CLOUDS ABOVE 20000 FT MSL FRIDAY. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AND VERY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A CANADIAN COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. A MIX OF WET/DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE FROM CUT BANK TO
HAVRE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO SOUTHWARD. ALSO EXPECT A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...WITH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  91  60  92 /  10  10  10  20 
CTB  53  90  54  83 /  10  10  10  30 
HLN  61  95  62  96 /  10  10  10  10 
BZN  52  91  52  93 /   0  10  10   0 
WEY  43  82  43  83 /   0  10  10  10 
DLN  55  89  54  91 /   0  10   0  10 
HVR  56  93  60  91 /   0   0  10  20 
LWT  57  88  59  89 /  10  10  10  10 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

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