Weather Service Report


835 
FXUS65 KTFX 310948
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
348 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
today before a cold front moves across the area this afternoon. A
high wind warning is in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Central
Montana. Both events are due to the conditions ahead of the cold
front that will include strong gusty winds and above average
temperatures. Precipitation will be limited with the frontal
passage...however some isolated showers and thunderstorms could
develop with frontal passage. After the front temperatures will
drop back to seasonal values and will continue that way as
additional weak shortwaves will move over the area and bring
additional rounds of precipitation. While none of the next
impulses will bring widespread precipitation have gone with more
climatological pops due to the enhanced chance of showers with
these systems through Thursday. Suk 

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with 
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable 
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within 
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and 
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge 
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to 
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming 
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest 
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves 
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest 
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with 
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana 
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over 
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered 
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal 
averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
Expect ceilings above 15000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning. The 
main weather feature affecting the tafs will be a cold front which 
will move into KCTB around 16z..KHLN and KGTF around 19z..KBZN and 
KHVR around 21z..and KLWT around 22z. Gusty westerly winds will 
develop behind the front and winds will be especially gusty over the 
northwest plains where gusts could reach 55 kts. Have fair 
confidence in frontal timing and forecast winds in the tafs. Would 
not be surprised if winds are even stronger than what is in the tafs 
for a brief time during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered 
showers and very isolated thunderstorms will develop during the 
afternoon mainly near and southeast of a line from KHVR to KGTF to 
KHLN. Conditions should remain VFR in the showers and thunderstorms 
but wind gusts to 40 kts could be associated with them. Then in the 
evening a band of showers will spread from southwest Montana to 
central Montana. Again think VFR conditions will be associated with 
them. Gusty winds westerly winds will continue into the evening with 
little if any drop in wind speeds. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  35  52  32 /  20  40  40  20 
CTB  63  33  49  28 /  20  30  30  20 
HLN  68  34  52  30 /  20  40  30  20 
BZN  73  28  52  22 /  30  60  40  20 
WEY  61  19  43   7 /  20  50  30  20 
DLN  68  27  47  22 /  20  50  40  20 
HVR  73  34  55  28 /  20  30  40  20 
LWT  76  33  50  29 /  20  50  30  20 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening 
Blaine...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and 
Clark...Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith 
Basin...Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon today to 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern 
Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls



Return to Home page


Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu