Weather Service Report


099 
FXUS65 KTFX 280454
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...
No update necessary this evening. Westerly flow aloft will continue 
and the airmass will remain dry and stable overnight. Surface winds 
will also remain light. Temperatures look good.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Quiet conditions are expected tonight with light and variable winds. 
Southwest winds will increase and become breezy by midday Thursday 
as a shortwave trough and surface cold front begin to push into the 
Northern Rockies. An isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorm is 
possible at KHLN and KBZN and have added VCSH to the TAF. The 
surface cold front is expected to cross the International Border 
between 20z and 00z with showers developing along and behind the 
front. Overall, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. 
Though forecast confidence is low, brief periods of MVFR conditions 
are possible after 03z on Friday. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 247 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2014

Tonight through Friday...Forecast calls for one more night and day
of warm, dry and quiet weather before the next weather system
approaches the region. Although conditions will continue to be
breezy along the Rocky Mountain Front, strong winds are not
expected through the next 24 hours. Late Thursday afternoon
conditions will begin to change as an upper level disturbance
approaches the Northern Rockies. A surface cool front will push
south out of Canada with isolated showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm developing ahead of the front along the Hi-Line.
Meanwhile, the upper disturbance will interact with a modestly
unstable airmass over Southwest Montana to trigger a chance for
thunderstorms during the evening with storms spreading northeast
into Central Montana. The remnants of the system will move east
overnight through Friday morning with weak shortwave ridging aloft
developing by afternoon. Friday's high temperatures will be
slightly cooler than Thursday with partly cloudy skies and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm by late afternoon. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...Cool and unsettled conditions are 
expected for this period.  The primary weather maker will be 
a longwave trof that gradually moves into the region on Sat and will 
persist across the Northern Rockies and the Great Basin areas 
through much of next week.  A series of quick-moving shortwaves 
embedded within the larger trof pattern will bring scattered showers 
and thunderstorms on Saturday, Monday, and Wednesday with isolated, 
lingering showers possible on Sunday. An autumn-like cooling trend 
begins with passage of a cold front in the early aftn on Sat, and is 
then maintained by northwest flow aloft through at least Mon.  After 
near-normal temperatures on Sat, high temps each following day will 
be about 10-15 degrees below normal, with highs only reaching the 
low-mid 60s.  Will also be keeping an eye on possibility of 
breezy-to-gusty surface winds along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent 
foothills and plains on Mon and Tues as a leeside trof develops over 
central MT with high pressure ridging west of the Continental 
Divide. Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  84  54  80 /   0   0  20  10 
CTB  53  79  50  78 /   0  20  20  10 
HLN  55  86  55  82 /   0   0  20  10 
BZN  47  83  48  79 /   0   0  30  20 
WEY  38  72  40  70 /   0  10  30  20 
DLN  49  81  49  79 /   0   0  20  20 
HVR  55  85  53  78 /   0  10  20  20 
LWT  54  83  54  76 /   0  10  20  20 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu