Weather Service Report


892 
FXUS65 KGJT 292204
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
404 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A PIECE OF MOIST ENERGY
HAS BEEN SPINNING CCW ACROSS THE CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS
BRINGING STEADY PRECIPITATION TO THE GUNNISON BASIN...ROARING FORK
VALLEY...AND NOW SPREADING INTO THE YAMPA VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO FAR PAST THE GRAND MESA AND TAVAPUTS
PLATEAU IN WESTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING...AND IS EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST OF COLORADO ON SATURDAY...EXPECT FEWER
SHOWERS THAN TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SIGNIFICANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALIGNS WITH H7 WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

THEN THE NEXT UPPER LOW OF WHICH MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING AND INTENSITY...WILL BE SPREADING INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF
PRECIP BY SUNRISE SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE SAN JUAN MTNS AND ABAJO MTNS
SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER HIGH...GENERALLY AT OR
ABOVE 8000 FEET MSL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
 THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY...THEN MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
DIFFUSE ON MONDAY...WITH OUR CWA REMAINING UNDER A COL AREA INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY
...WITH A DECREASE IN QPF MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA ON TUESDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMALS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... 
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND AS H7 TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 4 DEGREES C HIGHER THAN
TUESDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TO BE 6 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY...
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND TO CA AND 
APPROACH OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY. LIKELY TO 
EXPERIENCE BREEZY PREFRONTAL WINDS ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF 
SOME CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP BY LATER AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING FROM THE GUNNISON VALLEY
NORTHWARD INTO THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND WILL SPREAD NORTH AND
WESTWARD TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS IN WESTERN COLORADO WILL SEE
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS AT TIMES DUE TO PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
RAIN-SNOW LINE AROUND 7000 TO 7500 FEET TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF TOWARD SUNSET...WHEN A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM/JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JAM/TGJT

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu