Weather Service Report


628 
FXUS65 KGJT 302135
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
335 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

A ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain west will dominate
the weather pattern in the short term. A weak shear zone
extending SW/NE across the San Juan mountains continues to be the
focus of any development this afternoon. These isolated storms
will diminish during the evening hours. High pressure will shift
slightly east as a closed low impacts the Pacific Northwest on
Wednesday. Expect another round of late day isolated/scattered
showers and thunderstorms with the best focus across the south and
along the Continental Divide.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

The Pacific closed low will move onshore over Washington by
Thursday as moist southwest flow increases over the region. This
flow will bring increasing southwest winds over the area through
early next week. Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase on
Thursday and again on Friday with the potential for locally heavy
rain in the stronger storms on Friday. Model timing is a bit
inconsistent with the NAM pushing the main shower activity through
Utah by midday on Friday with the GFS having a slower progression.
As the closed low moves east across southern Canada, the longer
range models are showing another lobe of energy moving through the
forecast area which will generate another round of showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday with some potentially strong. As another
closed low moves across the northern Rockies this weekend drier
southwest flow will return into early next week. Seasonably cool
temperatures are expected through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected
through 03Z mainly over the mountains along/near the Continental
Divide from the Steamboat Springs area to the San Juan and La
Plata Mountains. The main threat will be strong and gusty outflow
wind potential, brief heavy rain, as well as some small hail
possible over the higher terrain. Elsewhere, clear skies will be
prevalent, though airports within about 20 miles or so from
thunderstorms could experience gusty outflow winds. Mostly clear
skies can be expected across the entire area by 06Z tonight.
Another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop
by 18z on Wednesday favoring the south and locations along the
Continental Divide.


&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...MPM

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu