Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KGGW 271611

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
911 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast through Wed...

Light snow continues to diminish across the area today but
occasional snow showers are expected to continue at times through
the day, especially in the eastern locations. If current trends
continue in the next several hours, the Winter Weather Advisory
may be cancelled early, especially for the western zones. Expect
the trough to remain in place however, keeping in colder
temperatures across the area. Maliawco

Previous Discussion...

Main forecast challenge today focuses on the ongoing snow event
across southern and central portions of our northeast Montana CWA.
Latest model agreement and consensus shows good support for an
extension of the Winter Weather Advisory into McCone, Dawson, and
Richland Counties given the expected 2 to 3 inches of new snow
fall this morning and today. Went ahead and expanded the headline
with this morning forecast package.

Snow fall will taper off from west to east throughout this
afternoon and into early this evening. Small portions or corners
of other counties may see similar amounts of snow fall, but as
most of those counties are expected to see less than 2 inches,
felt it was best to leave them out of the advisory.

Tonight through Tuesday, a nearly zonal to slightly WSW flow aloft
persists over the region with periods of scattered light snow off
and on through the early portion of this week. Another larger upper-
level low pressure trough axis pushes through the area by late 
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with NW flow aloft becoming 
more prominent thereafter. 


.LONG TERM...Wed night through Mon...

Upper trof moves through the region midweek with flow pattern
transitioning to flatter westerly flow off the Pacific during the
end of the week. This will result in warming temperatures into the

Precipitation chances through the period are less clear. Models
indicate some overrunning precipitation possible on Thursday night 
as warm air begins to work into the region. A weak cold front
drops south from Canada on Saturday with scattered showers
possible. A stronger shortwave trof pushes through the state on
Sunday bringing the best potential for accumulating snowfall.



An upper level trough along with a surface front across the area 
will be the focus for the main body for snow for the region.
Flight conditions will drop to MVFR/IFR as the snow spreads east
early this morning. Although the snow is expected to exit the
region this afternoon, the poor flying conditions will persist 



Although water levels on the Yellowstone River have now fallen
well below flood stage, large chunks of ice present still pose a
threat for ice jams and may be frozen in place. 

With little change in runoff and no melting of the ice jams 
expected early this week, the Flood Watch continues through this 

Later this week, a return to warmer temperatures may melt and/or
move any remaining ice jams further downstream. 


Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for 

Flood Watch until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Dawson...Richland. 



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