Weather Service Report


589 
FXUS65 KGGW 300904
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
304 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

...SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...

SMOKE MOVED INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA MONDAY EVENING. THE SMOKE IS
FROM WILDFIRE IN NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND NW TERRITORIES
OF CANADA. THE SMOKE HAS REDUCED VISIBILITY BELOW A MILE AT TIMES
DURING THE NIGHT AND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY AS LOW AS A
QUARTER MILE THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY
UNTIL 18Z (NOON MDT). A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE
THE SMOKE TO THE EAST AND WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE VISIBILITIES.
HOWEVER...SMOKE COULD LINGER ALL DAY IN THE EAST AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST THERE. THE SMOKE HAS REACHED LEVELS THAT ARE
CONSIDERED VERY UNHEALTHY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
ALBERTA IS FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NE MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND
BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. WITH THE EASTERN ZONES EXPECTED TO SEE THE FRONT IN
THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH WITH THE HELP
OF DEW POINT NEAR 60...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES... CAPE
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX -6... CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ADD A MENTION TO THE FORECAST. 

FOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHICH WILL HAVE THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THIS MORNING... VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE
40S THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 90... RH WILL BE DOWN TO NEAR 20 PERCENT. THIS WILL CREATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
MISSOURI BREAKS SOUTH. THE SAME NW WINDS WILL ALSO EXCEED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR FORT PECK LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. 

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE COULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST. 

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO NORTH DAKOTA
ON THURSDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST. 


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HOT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...
ANCHORING THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONTANA FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING INTO THE 90S.

SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW...THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND DROP SOUTH INTO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...WILL BE
SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AROUND SATURDAY
EVENING. THE DAY...TEMPERATURE-WISE...WILL BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY
AS DESERT AIR CREEPS NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT
REACHING THE HOT AIR SHOULD INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT ALSO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A DAY AND EVENING OF FIREWORKS...THIS
COULD BECOME A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE WHERE FUELS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
THE RECENT HOT DRY PERIOD. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. FOR NOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING COULD RANGE FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY...SENDING HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. OFF TO THE WEST ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BE DEVELOPING...BUT THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LAST INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. 

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 18Z TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TODAY AND SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. SOME STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAY BECOME STRONG...AFFECTING MAINLY KSDY AND KGDV WITH
POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND.

EAST TO NORTH WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 15-25KT. THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF
SURFACE WIND AND WIND ALOFT WILL TEND TO CHANNEL SMOKE FROM THE
BOREAL FOREST WILD FIRES IN CANADA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM IN SWIFT CURRENT...REGINA AND MEDICINE HAT
HAVE VISIBILITIES REDUCED BY SMOKE RANGING FROM 3/4SM TO 2SM. THIS
SMOKE HAS DRIFTING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NW TODAY WILL TEND TO REDUCE THE SMOKE. SO EXPECT FU OR HZ
AMENDMENTS IN THE TERMINAL AREA FORECASTS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
TS.

SCT



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES PETROLEUM AND GARFIELD COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH. RH WILL
FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THIS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRES. WILL UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN ZONE 136 (CMR
REFUGE) TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 137 SOUTHERN PETROLEUM
AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES TO THE WARNING. THE WARNING WILL BE
FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING 
FOR MTZ136-137. 

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN 
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX. 

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS 
EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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