Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KGGW 242044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
244 PM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast through Mon...

A strong low pressure system currently centered over southeast
Montana will continue to lift toward central North Dakota this
evening and overnight. As of 1400 this afternoon it is currently
driving widespread showers over much of northeast Montana.
However, as it tracks eastward, precipitation and sky cover will
taper off from west to east. Breezy northwest winds will also
continue overnight thanks to a tightened surface gradient, thus
the lake wind advisory timing continues to look good.

Upper ridging begins to nose in on the heels of the exiting system
on Sunday. Expect mainly sunny skies, along with continued dry
conditions. Northwest winds will continue at 10-20 mph...with the
strongest winds near the North Dakota border.

High pressure and upper ridging will continue into Monday, making
for warming temps, light winds, and sunny skies. Gilchrist

.LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat...

Forecast thinking remains generally the same for the extended
period. The synoptic weather pattern will be nearly stationary
with a large broad ridge of high pressure in control over most of
the western US. Expect warmer temperatures and drier conditions to
prevail for NE Montana through most of next week.

Beginning next weekend, another large low pressure system from the
Canadian coastline will dig south into our northwest states,
bringing more chances for rain showers and cooler temperatures.

Made some overall forecast grid adjustments based on the latest
model consensus. 

Previous long term discussion: Surface high pressure and an upper
level ridge will influence weather conditions over the first
portion of the long range forecast. Associated large scale
subsidence will mean dry weather. Height rises in response to the
advancing ridge will mean thermal layer expansion and therefore
warm temperatures for northeast Montana early to middle portions
of next week. In fact, on Tuesday high temperatures should push
the upper 70s and low 80s.

Southwest flow aloft is expected to develop as the ridge pushes
downstream of the region in response to a deepening trough across
the Pacific Northwest. Any embedded shortwaves in the flow will
bring slight chances for showers to the area. Therefore will
include slight chance to low chance pops toward the end of next
week. Do also expect temperatures to cool some as the ridge axis
slides off to the east and that southwest upper flow becomes
established over the Northern High Plains. 




Synopsis: With the large storm system now spinning its center up
into western North Dakota this afternoon, precipitation is
expected to become more showery be nature.

Flight Conditions: This afternoon through early this evening: IFR
for KSDY and KGDV. MVFR to VFR for KGGW and KOLF. Tonight:
Conditions will improve from west to east as the storm system
finally pulls away and skies begin to clear. Some patchy fog is
possible west of KGGW, but not confident yet to include it for the
TAF sites.

Winds: Gusty northwest winds will continue tonight on the
backside of this departing low pressure system, then will diminish
by Sunday morning.



Lake Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday For Fort Peck Lake for 
Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...



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