Weather Service Report


957 
FXUS65 KGGW 240245 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CANNOT ALSO RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SPRINKLES. HRRR MODEL IS BEST AT REPRESENTING REALITY AND
SHOWS REFLECTIVITIES TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVING OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...HUGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA SHOT OFF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS CENT
SASK. THE MOISTURE STREAM IS LAYING NE ACROSS MONTANA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DROPPING SE AND AT LEAST FILTER THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE THIS AFTERNOON.

ASSOCIATED JET THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE THE 
MOISTURE STREAM DRIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE MID LEVEL 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING LAKE WIND 
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...THUS LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH 
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH INDUCES A RIDGE OVER MONTANA. COOLER 
MORNING TEMPS MEANS THAT TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NOT WARM OVER FRIDAY/S 
READINGS. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE INCLUDED TRENDING THE POPS UP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LONG WAVE TROF
WILL BRING IN SOME INSTABILITY BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND HOW FAR NORTH WILL IT COME. THE MODELS ARE HONESTLY
NOT IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE POPS ALONG OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH A
TROF SOUTH OF IT AND THE FRONT ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER AT 00Z
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY. THAT
COLD FRONT WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. FRANSEN

UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH
STAYS TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART. UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HAS SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. 

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF START SHOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS FAVORS A COLDER WETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A WARMER DRIER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING UP
AND OVER IT CAUSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR THE REGION. WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS AFT
18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR FORT PECK 
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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