Weather Service Report


673 
FXUS65 KGGW 271553
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
853 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MORNING UPDATE... CHANGE FOR THIS MORNING WERE FOCUSING ON
GETTING LATEST MESOSCALE WIND FIELDS IN AND THE INCREASING SKY
COVERAGE ON SATELLITE AS A CHINOOK ARCH CLOUDS ARE THICKER THAN
EXPECTED BY THE MODELS FOR THIS MORNING. THIS MAY TAMPER DOWN
MAXIMUM HIGHS TODAY. HOWEVER... WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER... THESE TWO EFFECTS SHOULD BALANCE EACH OTHER OUT WITH
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
MEAN LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIXED IN PLACE OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
BENEATH RIDGE AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY BUT BECOMING A LITTLE
BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE THREATENED AGAIN TODAY WITH UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S 
IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MONTANA RANGING TO LOWER 60S TO THE WEST IN 
PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM...AND GARFIELD COUNTIES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT 
WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA TONIGHT FLATTENING 
RIDGE SOMEWHAT AND BRINGING SOME GENERAL CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY. AS A 
RESULT TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY 
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BRITTON


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL FIND ITSELF NEARLY CONSTANTLY UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD AND IN AN INCESSANT BATTLE BETWEEN COLDER AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST. 

THE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES THAT SLIDE THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL
BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PREDOMINANTLY ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE WAS JUST BARELY ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS
TO BRING SOME OF THOSE AREAS UP TO CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...A
TREND TO CLIMO POPS MAKES THE MOST SENSE GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
CONSISTENCY IN THE FLOW PATTERN AND SMALLER-SCALE MODEL QPF
OUTPUT. 

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SHIFTS MORE WESTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND PLACES NORTHEAST
MONTANA MORE IN THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASS.
BMICKELSON 


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HIGH CHINOOK ARCH CLOUDS. THEN AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AFTER 00Z
FOR A WIND SHIFT AND FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. 

FREEZING RAIN: A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS AFTER 12Z TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KOLF AND
KSDY BUT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS DIRECTLY. THIS THREAT
ENDS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHWEST UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT... VEERING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. 

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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