Weather Service Report


853 
FXUS65 KGGW 010235 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
835 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATE...
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
THEREFORE WILL NOT DROP THE MENTION OF THEM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED THE CURRENT GUIDANCE PRODUCTS AND OBSERVATIONS. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOCUS WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM AND EXACTLY HOW IT WILL IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA. FLOW
ALOFT IS NOW TURNING FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH CLOUDS
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. VIRGA RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
APPEAR ON RADAR IMAGERY. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT BY 6 PM...THOSE
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND COVERAGE AND BEGIN REACHING
THE GROUND NEAR OUR WESTERN ZONES. STRONG HEATING TODAY AND
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE SHOULD LEAD TO A
FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THOSE SHOWERS. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE DIRECTS THE MAIN ACCUMULATING STORMS THROUGH A GENERAL
CORRIDOR FROM GRASS RANGE NE THROUGH THOENY AND WOULD MAINLY BE
DRIVEN BY THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SOME LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY...FELT IT WAS BEST TO ERR
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION WITH THIS WIND PRONE LOCATION AND LEAD
WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES ZONE ON THE OFF
CHANCE THAT THE FRONT AND DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MIGHT BE STRONGER
THAN THE MODELS INDICATE.

AS THIS MAIN FORCING MOVES TOWARD THE EAST OVERNIGHT...A DRY SLOT
CUTS OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL CWA WITH MAYBE
A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. BY WEDNESDAY MID DAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE STRONGEST WINDS WHIP UP AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND STRONGEST 700
MB WINDS INDICATE THE TIME FRAME OF GREATEST IMPACT TO BE EARLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. 

WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW SPINS AROUND EAST OF MONTANA
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...ENOUGH COLD AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION TO ALLOW ANY WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
BEHIND THE LARGER STORM SYSTEM TO FALL AS SNOW. EXPECTING ANYWHERE
BETWEEN A TRACE AND 0.3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER
ZONES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
SHIFT INTO A COLDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH US FOR QUITE
SOME TIME. BMICKELSON 

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ONLY TWEAK WORTH NOTING WAS TO TREND POPS TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A MORE DIRTY WEAK
RIDGE SCENARIO. REMAINDER OF FORECAST WAS NUDGED TOWARD THE LATEST
CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH BROAD UPPER TROF OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
WILL KEEP COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WEAK RIDGE THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE IMPROVING REGARDING FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS GFS SOLUTION BRINGING A TROF
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR A GENERALLY COOL AND WET PERIOD.
INCREASED POPS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO TO REFLECT INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT TO 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS AT TIMES CONTINUING
THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. MALIAWCO

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE PRESENCE OF SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH
HAVE BEGUN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BRING PASSING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT BEFORE STRONGER WEST
WINDS FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES
WILL MAINTAIN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING. MALIAWCO/MICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR 
MTZ120-122-134>137. 

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHWEST 
PHILLIPS. 

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE 
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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