Weather Service Report


613 
FXUS65 KFGZ 221647
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
947 AM MST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA 
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. 
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR 
SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL 
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY WITH WARMER AND 
DRIER WEATHER TRENDING FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED 
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN YAVAPAI AND SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY 
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW RAPID DEVELOPMENT ACROSS 
ALL OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS 
AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING... 
INCREASE POP BEFORE 18Z AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF 
THE DAY. 

&&
.PREV /347 AM MST/DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA LATER TODAY. 
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NAVAJO AND 
APACHE COUNTIES...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MANY 
LOCATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 12 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS 
TIME OF THE YEAR FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL...BUT GENERALLY 
WEAKER...DISTURBANCES WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE MAIN LOW KEEPING 
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH 
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A 
TRANSITION TO FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY 
THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA W 
OF A KPRC-KFLG-KPGA LINE EXPANDING TO A K0V7-KFLG-KPRC LINE THROUGH 
06Z SAT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF 
KFLG...INCLUDING THE KGCN AND KPGA TERMINALS. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS 
COULD CONTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS FROM 17Z-02Z S-SW 15-25 KT 
GUSTS TO 30KT...FASTEST ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. AVIATION 
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FOR TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO ARIZONA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE
FROM KAYENTA TO PRESCOTT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WETTING
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN COCONINO
COUNTY. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOR ALLOW A FEW HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-40.
 
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY 
ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED TUESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...DL

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