Weather Service Report


935 
FXUS65 KFGZ 031629
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. A SECOND STORM WILL
APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A
WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE 
FOR PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE MORNING STRETCH. 
LOOK FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES AND EXTREMELY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH 
GENERALLY NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN OR SNOW. WE HAVE 
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS 
IN GOOD SHAPE. 

A TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A 
WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE GENERATING ENOUGH 
LIFT IN OUR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS 
NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE. A SHORTWAVE 
APPROACHING FROM UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCES INSTABILITY AND 
WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. 
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES 
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
MORNING.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS NOT ENDED FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOVER
FROM 4500-5500 FEET...SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING
UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGN OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THIS 
MORNING...WITH PATCHY LOWER CEILINGS AND FOG. EXPECT ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING COVERAGE AS A 
WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND 
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION 
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. 

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/MCS
AVIATION.......RICKY/JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT 
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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