576 FXUS65 KFGZ 232341 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 441 PM MST Tue Apr 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Slightly cooler and breezy weather Wednesday will give way to cooler, unsettled conditions for the second half of the week. There's a chance of showers Thursday and again late Friday into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...Rest of Today and Tomorrow...Ridging overhead today is allowing for warming conditions. A closed off low to the west is starting to increase winds today, but will be more apparent tomorrow as winds will be strong enough to limit heating then. Gusts for most should be 25-35 mph Wednesday. As the low approaches later Wednesday into Thursday, moisture will star to advect into the region. This will result in a notable increase in RHs for the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Shower chances will start to increase early Thursday morning, peaking with afternoon instability Thursday afternoon. Regardless of instability, most will receive less than a wetting rain as moisture availability won't be that great. Winds will also be peaking Thursday with areas immediately northeast of higher terrain experiencing gusts of 30-40 mph. Obviously no RFW concern with the RH jump and moisture. Quickly following behind this mid-week system will be a trough that will enter the region Friday night into Saturday. Before it will be a brief window of dry weather. Afternoon RHs will take a dive between systems as winds remain elevated. This will make Friday afternoon a bit more of a highlighted Fire Weather concern before more moisture enters the region Friday night. Cooler weather that arrives before and with the second system early Saturday will contribute to some high elevation snowfall, with snow levels remaining pretty high besides first thing Saturday morning when snow levels could slip to 7000 feet. Otherwise, any accumulating snowfall will be closer to and above 8000 feet. Greater moisture availability is expected Saturday, so more widespread shower coverage is expected. Early morning precipitation with the main front, combined with afternoon instability driving additional shower activity primarily along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains will result in precipitation amounts exceeding a tenth of an inch for many, perhaps even exceeding 3 tenths in some more favored upslope areas. Following Saturday's system, zonal flow sets up over the region with moderating temperatures and lighter winds. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 24/00Z through Thursday 25/00Z...VFR expected to continue with SSW winds 15-25 kts with gusts 25-35 kts. Winds becoming light and variable after 02Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 25/00Z through Saturday 27/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Localized MVFR in ISO SHRA/SHSN and ISO TS 09Z/Thu-03Z/Fri. SSW winds 15-25 kts with gusts 25-35 kts, becoming lighter during the overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday through Thursday...Dry and mild conditions continue Wednesday. Much cooler temperatures Thursday with a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. Wetting rains are unlikely. Southwest winds 15-25 mph and gusts 30-35 mph each day. Friday through Sunday...Cool temperatures continue through Saturday before a warming trend begins Sunday. Mainly dry through Friday afternoon, with a better chance of rain and high elevation snow showers Friday night and Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms also possible. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts from 30-40 mph Friday, shifting to westerly gusting 30-35 mph Saturday and 20-25 mph Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RKR AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff |