Weather Service Report


454 
FXUS65 KFGZ 030411
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
911 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER
TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM HAVE DISSIPATED WITH JUST A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A DRIER AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S
AND 40S. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE
DETERMINING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE EASTERN PARTS OF ARIZONA WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR STORMS AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...NO UPDATES
NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXISTS TO SUSTAIN LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN RIM...WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. WHILE THERE IS MUCH VARIANCE
IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE MORE
CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY DECREASING THE STORM ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL BE SENSED NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WHERE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS
WEEKEND...AND COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DRYING AS THE FLOW TURNS
MORE WESTERLY ACROSS ARIZONA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY...AS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH...AND
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OR DEEP OUTFLOW FROM STORM
COMPLEXES OVER THE VALLEY COULD QUICKLY BRING GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE
FROM PAYSON-WINSLOW-KAYENTA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED STORMS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH HAIL AND ERRATIC GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
FROM 30 TO 40 MPH. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/BAK
AVIATION...JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

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