Weather Service Report


855 
FXUS65 KFGZ 251638
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN HEADING INTO THE 
WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM PRESCOTT TO FLAGSTAFF...TO 4-CORNERS HAS 
SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER WEST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 
BELLEMONT MORNING SOUNDING DROPPED FROM AROUND AN INCH LAST EVENING 
TO NEAR 0.70 IN...WHILE SOUNDINGS TAKEN AT PHOENIX AND TUCSON SHOWED 
LARGE INCREASES DURING THE SAME TIME DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. 
MODELS PUSH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE BACK EASTWARD...TO FLAGSTAFF AND 
THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS 
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER MOST AREAS...WITH EAST 
CENTRAL AZ LOOKING LESS ACTIVE. ALSO...AN AREA OF STORMS FORECAST BY 
SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON MAY MOVE UP 
INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING...INCLUDING YAVAPAI CO AND POSSIBLY THE 
FLAGSTAFF REGION. WILL MAKE SOME SLIGHT POP ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD FOR 
THE WHITE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE STORM CHANCES A BIT 
THIS EVENING FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTHWARD.  

.PREV DISCUSSION...(350 AM MST)...THE PERSISTENT BAND OF 
CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO OUR WEST THAT FORMED OVER 24 HOURS AGO ESSENTIALLY 
INDICATES THE MONSOON BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT 
THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 
WEEK. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH WARM AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS 
SLOWLY ERODING EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO 
WEAKEN EACH DAY...WITH STORMS BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY AND CAPABLE 
OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE BUMPED UP 
POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TO REFLECT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AT THIS 
TIME...THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE THIS 
MORNING...PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF KFLG. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES 
MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY TODAY...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF 
KGCN...KFLG...AND KSEZ. THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL 
DEVELOP FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AZ. LOCALLY MODERATE 
TO HEAVY RAIN MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT 
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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