319 FXUS65 KFGZ 182222 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 315 PM MST TUE JUN 18 2013 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BREEZY WINDS EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .DISCUSSION...THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE DOCE WILDFIRE NEAR PRESCOTT ARIZONA IS CLEARLY SHOWN MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS PLUME TO SPREAD SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY...SEE PRODUCT RFWFGZ FOR DETAILS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MONTANA WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND PRODUCING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVER ARIZONA. FOR NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD IN ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA FROM MONDAY ONWARD. FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MAY BRING HIGH BASED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20KT GUSTS AROUND 25KT THROUGH AROUND 02Z ...DECREASING TO 10KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICKING BACK UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z WEDS...15-25KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KT FOR MOST AREAS. SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE WEST OF KPRC WILL CAUSE LOCAL VSBY REDUCTIONS... WHICH MAY AFFECT THE KPRC TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH...WARM TEMPERATURES AND SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY. HAINES INDICES OF 5 AND 6 ARE ALSO EXPECTED. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING ON WEDNESDAY FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST FOR AZZ104>108-111>117-139-140. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AZZ104>107-111>117-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC.........BOHLIN AVIATION.......JJ FIRE WEATHER...JJ FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF |