Weather Service Report


062 
FXUS65 KFGZ 150339
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE 
MOGOLLON RIM. A STRONGER MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY 
WITH INCREASING STORM COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ARE 
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MOSTLY 
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY MILD 
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL 
CONTINUE TO HAVE SIMILAR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BELOW THE 500 MB LEVEL) 
DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INSTABILITY AS SEEN THIS 
WEEKEND...AND THUS EXPECT SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS. AREAS NORTH OF 
THE RIM SHOULD HAVE ISOLATED DAY STORM COVERAGE WHERE WIND FLOW 
ABOVE 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WESTERLY. 

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE 
INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA AND MOVE IT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS 
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK THERE IS A MOISTURE 
GRADIENT WITH HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER 
VALLEY. THERE MAY BE AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AZ. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
STORMS INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GRAND 
CANYON TO FLAGSTAFF TO HEBER LINE ARE DUE TO THIS FEATURE.   

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER 
THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE MAY 
INTERACT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST IN 
THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. STILL A BIT TO FAR OUT TO BE MORE 
SPECIFIC.  

IN SUMMARY...SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE 
MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE SURGE INTO CENTRAL AND 
WESTERN AZ WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR 
FRIDAY...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING ON THE PATH OF ODILES' 
LEFTOVER CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE AND ANY INTERACTION WITH A TROUGH 
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST.  

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH 
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING 
AFTER 18Z. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE 
FROM KGCN/KFLG/KSOW. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED STORMS. STRONGEST STORMS 
WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED 
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/DL 
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT 
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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