Weather Service Report


716 
FXUS65 KFGZ 252209
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
309 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION
NEXT TUESDAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
BETWEEN A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD IMPACTING NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER...WARMING
TEMPERATURES...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. DURING
THIS PERIOD...EXPECT DECREASING TEMPERATURES AS COOLER AIR PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL...AS
700 MB SOUTHWEST GRADIENTS TIGHTEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST THE PASSAGE OF A
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN
ADDITION...BOTH MODELS INDICATE 500 MB Q-VECTOR FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS...COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DETAILS WITH REGARDS TO THE
EXACT TIMING...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ARE
STILL UNCLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC WINDS
VARIABLE TO 10KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT 
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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