Weather Service Report


787 
FXUS65 KFGZ 220411
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM MST THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH 
FRIDAY...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS LOW WILL FILTER INTO ARIZONA ON 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL DOWN TURN IN STORM ACTIVITY 
FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING WITH 
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST 
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVING THIS EXTENDED RAINFALL EVENT IS 
SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT 
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY...REACHING 
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND SUNSET. EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY AS WEAKENING DYNAMICS WITH 
THE LOW ASSISTS STORM DEVELOPMENT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND 
THE LOW AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CAP STORM DEVELOPMENT 
DECREASING OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW GRADE MONSOON STORM ACTIVITY REMAINS 
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER LONG 
RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IN THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WOULD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER ARIZONA 
AND A RETURN TO DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE 
COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON 
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM IN NORTHEAST 
ARIZONA. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR 
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC AND GUSTY SURFACE 
WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT 
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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