Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KFGZ 241633

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
933 AM MST FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the
weekend, with a few showers mainly east of Flagstaff. Moisture
will return by early next week as a more monsoonal type of
circulation develops, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm


.UPDATE...A couple of weak disturbances are interacting with
enhanced moisture across eastern Arizona to produce isolated to
scattered light showers mainly east of a Tuba City to Winslow to
Forest Lakes line this morning. We expect this activity to
gradually push eastward through the day mainly impacting Apache
County this afternoon when isolated thunder is also possible. Made
short term updates to account for ongoing shower activity.


.PREV DISCUSSION /540 AM MST/...The mid-level moisture boundary
has pushed slightly farther north and west overnight, with a few
light showers east of Flagstaff. This boundary should continue to
be nudged generally south and east of Flagstaff as westerly flow
over the Great Basin continues through the weekend.

By next week, high pressure will push back westward and amplify.
This will lead to a more favorable monsoonal circulation. Shower
and thunderstorm activity should increase as a result.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the period,
especially over the weekend. Temperatures will begin to dip toward
normal next week as moisture and cloud cover increase.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA G30-
40kts CIGS BKN040 east of a KPAN-KPGA line through 03Z. Elsewhere,
expect VFR conditions. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact
visibility at times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry air will continue to move in from the
west over the next several days. This will limit showers and
thunderstorms coverage to the higher terrain in Apache county
through Saturday. These high based thunderstorms may produce erratic
gusty winds.

Sunday through Tuesday...Expect Sundays weather conditions to be
similar to Saturday. Starting Monday, additional moisture moves in
with chances for showers and thunderstorms expanding westward. 






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