Weather Service Report


969 
FXUS66 KEKA 242252
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
352 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure will bring a significant warming
trend into the coming week with temperatures approaching the
triple digits across the interior. Coastal areas will continue to
see a mix of clouds and sun as the marine layer fluctuates in
depth.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Once again, patches of low clouds have held firm
along portions of the Redwood and S Mendocino coasts. The clouds
were a bit thicker this morning. As a result of this, and a more
persistent S flow reversal along the coast, clouds have persisted
longer and still linger from near Orick to Humboldt Bay and the
Eel River delta. Temperature across the interior have ticked up a
few degrees over yesterday. Temperatures along the Pacific Coast
are running in the lower to mid 60s with the coolest readings in
the cloudier areas.

High pressure aloft will continue to gradually build over the
desert SW over the next few days, with high temperatures at many
interior locations exceeding 100 degrees. A few high valley spots
may see readings reach 110 by mid to late in the coming week with
500 MB heights building to near 597 dam as close as the NV/UT
border.

Rain chances appear scant over the next week. Have some isolated
PoPs over the N interior on Saturday afternoon. Instability
parameters still look iffy, with CIN values in excess of 100 J/kg.
There may be enough forcing from a weak upper trough to get some
shower development, but still not anticipating much threat of
thunder. Moisture will be limited. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...Morning stratus has been slow to erode this afternoon
along the coast. Both KCEC and KACV are on the edge of this cloud
shield and they should become VFR in the next hours or so. For
tonight, ceilings around 800 feet will develop after 06Z, before
dropping below 500 feet by 12Z. Visibilities reductions are also
likely. Farther south at KUKI, VFR conditions will prevail with
winds becoming calm after sunset. /PD

&&

.MARINE...An area of high persists will remain stationary across
the eastern pacific, with a ridge across the southern plains
building westward across SoCal. Increasing heights/temperatures
aloft related to the southern ridge will only help increase
temperatures across the interior, resulting in a stronger surface
trough along the coast. The pressure gradient between this feature
and the area of surface high pressure will allow solid small craft
conditions to persist across both the inner waters.

For the outer waters, solid small craft conditions will persist here
as well, with semi-frequent gusts to near gale force possible
through Tuesday. After this point, models show the pressure gradient
described above increasing, with a resultant increase in wind speeds
seen in the numerical guidance.

Although today the winds haven't been quite as high as originally
thought, this morning's ASCAT pass showed winds offshore in the 25
to 35 knot range. Thus, will maintain the current headlines as they
are and await future model runs before deciding if any changes are
needed. Given the wind forecasts are just under/right on the edge of
35 knots, with a further increase expected beyond 48 hours expected,
it may make more sense to remain persistent versus dropping down
into Small Craft Advisories for a couple days then reverting back to
Gales, as this would only add confusion to the forecast for the
mariners. This is the forecast dilemma we'll continue to evaluate
during the next few numerical model runs. /PD

&&

.EKA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM Wednesday for PZZ450-455.
     Gale Warning until 3 AM Wednesday for PZZ470-475.

$$

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