Weather Service Report


789 
FXUS66 KEKA 291132
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
432 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR NW CALIFORNIA.
SOME RELIEF WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM IN
FROM THE SOUTH...THOUGH MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TODAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD
AND OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BRING A SHARP COOL DOWN,
ESPECIALLY TO THE MENDO COAST. MORNING FOG PROD SATELLITE
INDICATES A WELL DEVELOPED STRATUS LAYER BEGINNING TO PUSH AROUND
POINT REYES. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES
THROUGH THE DAY AS MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING IT WELL.
REGARDLESS, LOOK FOR MORE RECORDS TO FALL TODAY.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY THURSDAY AS CLOUD COVER CREEPS
INTO THE REGION DUE TO A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSH FROM THE SSE.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF TRINITY COUNTY EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM TEMPS SHOULD HELP TO TRIGGER THIS
ACTIVITY WITH THE PEAKING EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. WEEKEND ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIMITED
NEXT WEEK, MAKING CONVECTIVE A TOUGH PROPOSITION. TEMPS WILL BE
MORE SEASONABLE NEXT WEEK. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS THROUGHOUT THE AREA. COASTAL SITES WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO HAZE EARLY THIS MORNING...INCLUDING
PERIODIC DROPS TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR PRIOR. MIXING SHOULD RESTORE
VFR VSBYS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGHOUT THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND PULL FARTHER
OFFSHORE. WHILE SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DOWNWARD AS
WELL...AREA BUOYS INDICATE THAT SEAS REMAIN STEEP THIS MORNING
WITH SIG WAVE HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET AT 8 TO 9
SECONDS. WHILE THE DOMINANT WAVE PRESENT IN THE WATERS CONTINUES
TO BE LOCALLY GENERATED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES AND FRESH
SWELL...A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL OF AROUND 3 FEET AT 16 TO
17 SECONDS IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE WATERS AS WELL. WHILE IMPACTS
FROM THIS SWELL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MAJOR...SOME SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FACING BEACHES AND HARBORS MAY NOTICE ITS PRESENCE
THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
BUT CONTINUE TO DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SETTLING AT AROUND 5 TO 7 FT / 7 TO 8
SECONDS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE BY
LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED WARMING AND DRYING TODAY WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS. KEPT THE RFW OUT FOR ZONES 203/204 DUE TO VERY LOW
OVERNIGHT RH AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS, THO WINDS ARE NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING IN THIS EVENING SHOULD HELP
THE RECOVERIES TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR TSTM ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE CROSS SECTIONS OVER
TRINITY COUNTY, MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION, BUT NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. MIGHT BE ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE TIMES WHERE THE
TRINITY MOUNTAINS TRIGGER THE STORMS THEN THEY BLOW OFF INTO
SISKIYOU COUNTY. BEYOND THAT, MODELS ARE SHOWING THREE-QUARTERS TO
AN INCH OF PWATS, SO STORMS SHOULD BE WET, BUT FUELS ARE VERY DRY.
AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY BE MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS IN
THE DISCUSSION. WILL NOT BE HEADLINING THIS YET. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ003.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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