Weather Service Report


251 
FXUS65 KCYS 022051
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
251 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
SE WY THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WAS AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...LIKELY DUE TO LESS UPPER SUPPORT. SHOULD SEE A BIT
MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. 

LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONDUCTING PERIODIC
RIPPLES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS
REFIRE OVER THE MTNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING SE OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE EVENING.  ONE FEATURE WILL BE A WEAK SFC TROF THAT
WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS SHOULD ACT TO REDUCE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER SE WY BUT MAY FOCUS IT OVER THE PANHANDLE. CAPE
VALUES DO GO UP OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY...GENERALLY IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...AND OVER 2000 J/KG OVER THE PANHANDLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY RESULT. SHEAR
VALUES NOT ALL THAT HIGH BUT STILL DECENT. OTHERWISE CONTINUED
WARM FRIDAY AND EVEN WARMER SATURDAY AS 700 MB WARM ABOUT 2-4C. 

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. ECMWF 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL
FROM +16C SUNDAY MORNING TO +8C SUNDAY EVENING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING. ECMWF SHOWING WELL OVER AN INCH
QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NIOBRARA COUNTY SUNDAY
EVENING. DID INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

A PRETTY COOL DAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLING INTO THE AREA. 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO +6C. CONTINUED
TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. CHEYENNE MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 60S MONDAY.

ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. PRETTY STRONG JET FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
GOOD DAY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STILL A WAYS OUT THOUGH AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY MAY GIVE US A BRIEF BREAK IN
SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS OUT WEST STILL THE FAVORED AREA FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. USED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
ON TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS. AIRPORTS MOST AFFECTED WILL BE
KBFF...KSNY AND KCYS FROM AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.
WEST WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD RELIEVE ANY PROBLEMS WITH LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT...THOUGH BRIEFLY GUSTY AROUND STORMS. A MONSOONAL PATTERN
MAY SET UP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE

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