Weather Service Report


711 
FXUS65 KBYZ 261624
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT 
924 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated the temperatures with the latest observations and trends
in the short term models. There continues to be some weak echos
with virga/light rain across Musselshell, Yellowstone, Treasure,
and northern Bighorn. Current PoP forecast reflects this well.
Reimer

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon...

Relatively quiet night across our CWA. However, the strong
westerly winds from Livingston to Big Timber (gusting 45 to 53 
mph) continue to kick up snow in some areas reducing visibility. 
We will continue the blowing snow advisory issued by the evening 
shift. This is valid until 11 AM, which looks good based on 
weakening pressure gradients by about that time. 

Synoptically, we have a main upper trof dropping through the
Pacific northwest today. This system will drive some Pacific
moisture into our region along strong westerly flow in the mid/low
levels. Most of this will result in virga over the lower
elevations most of the day, but also some snow showers over the
high country. Models indicate a piece of energy slipping away from
the main trof and tracking into our region by evening. QPF fields
suggest most of the measurable precipitation will stay along the
northern and western fringes of our CWA as downslope prevails over
us. However, by tonight the jet aloft moves into wyoming and
southern Montana. The ensuing jet dynamics will compete against
the downslope. The GFS and NAM do suggest some decent lift over 
the northern half of the CWA from Harlowton to Miles City, as well
as over our SW mountains. Highest PoP's seem appropriate in these
locations tonight and into Monday. The associated long wave trof 
then tracks east through the Rockies. Height falls and lingering 
jet dynamics induce QPF over our western zones Monday evening and 
transition them eastward through Monday night. 

Bottom line, unsettled weather for the short term period, but we 
don't anticipate any areas highly impacted at this time. However,
there could be some moderate snow showers that require some short
term weather statements at times. BT


.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Tuesday, long wave trough slides eastward into Montana bringing
isolated snow showers to the plains with scattered snow showers in
the western foothills and Mountains. Lee-side troughing develops 
favoring gusty winds from Livingston to Harlowton and 
northeastward to Roundup on Wed. 

A fast northwest flow aloft will mostly prevail across the 
forecast area through next weekend. A few disturbances within the
flow will bring periodic chances for snow showers. Temperatures
remain cooler than average through the middle part of the week
before trending upward by the end of the week. GFS has backed the
winds down a bit during Fri/Sat, trending more toward the Euro's 
solution. In general expect periods of gusty winds from
Livingston to Harlowton from mid-week onward. Walsh

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the period. Gusty southwest winds
around 30 kts will continue at LVM. VCSH moves into LVM, BIL, and
MLS during the afternoon with a weak front approaching from the
northwest. Walsh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033 019/029 017/034 018/039 023/040 025/047 030/046
    2/J 23/J    41/B    22/W    33/W    11/B    12/W
LVM 030 013/027 011/027 014/034 023/037 025/043 030/045
    2/J 34/J    43/J    22/J    33/J    21/N    22/W
HDN 035 019/033 016/037 017/041 022/042 024/049 027/049
    2/J 13/J    32/J    21/B    32/W    11/B    12/W
MLS 036 020/032 019/037 020/039 022/040 025/049 030/049
    2/W 22/J    12/W    22/W    31/E    11/B    11/B
4BQ 037 019/039 020/038 020/040 023/043 025/051 030/054
    1/E 11/B    22/W    11/N    21/E    11/B    11/B
BHK 033 018/031 015/032 016/033 018/034 020/045 028/045
    2/J 22/J    22/J    22/J    31/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 033 013/031 012/033 012/037 018/038 018/047 026/048
    0/E 01/B    31/B    21/B    33/W    11/B    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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