Weather Service Report


565 
FXUS65 KBYZ 292101
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 
301 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. INHERITED
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND IN NEED OF ONLY LIMITED EDITS. 
LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MONDAY. POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TUESDAY WITH PRE
FRONTAL WARMING. OUR MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY. LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS STRONG AS 
YESTERDAYS DID...AND THE MAIN TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS FURTHER NORTH 
THAN YESTERDAYS AS WELL...SO WE CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT THE SHARP 
COLD ADVECTION. THAT SAID...YESTERDAY WAS HIGHLY UNUSUAL AND
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SHAPE UP AS A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY ON ITS OWN MERITS. NAM SOUNDINGS DO MIX DOWN SOME
DECENT WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WE EXPECT HUMIDITY READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT AGAIN. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE OUR
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT AND CLOSELY MONITOR TUESDAY
PARAMETERS. AS FOR HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY...AGAIN THE MID
LEVEL WIND PROGGS ARE NOTHING LIKE YESTERDAY...SO JUST A TYPICALLY
BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MORE TYPICAL AND NOT WORTHY OF HIGH WIND CONSIDERATION AT
THIS TIME. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LONG TERM PROGGS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT OVERALL A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT MESSAGE. TROUGH EXITING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
WILL LEAVE A COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER BROADER
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...THEN WE SEE SOME RIDGE BUILDING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED AND COOLER EXTENDED PERIOD FOR
US...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS FAR AS WE CAN TELL AT
THIS POINT. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/073 045/077 041/053 033/048 030/051 032/057 036/059
    00/B    01/B    32/W    12/W    22/W    11/B    11/B
LVM 038/071 042/072 033/046 026/044 025/047 027/052 032/052
    00/B    02/W    33/W    23/W    32/W    11/B    12/W
HDN 037/075 039/080 041/055 033/049 030/052 031/059 035/062
    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B    11/B
MLS 039/071 041/079 043/055 033/047 030/051 032/058 036/062
    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    21/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 036/072 039/080 041/055 032/048 029/050 030/058 035/063
    00/B    00/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B    11/B
BHK 035/068 038/077 040/053 031/045 027/048 030/055 034/060
    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    21/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 034/070 037/078 037/050 030/045 027/047 028/055 032/059
    00/B    01/B    23/W    23/W    22/W    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

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