Weather Service Report


176 
FXUS65 KBYZ 292052
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT 
252 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

An upper ridge will build into eastern Montana this week
providing a hot and dry forecast. Isolated thundestorms are
possible late this afternoon and this evening as weak energy
combines with a moisture plum working up from Idaho. Energy was
rather weak and shear was minimal, so will keep chances low.
Believe weak shear should prevent any activity that does form from
moving off onto the plains, so confined PoPs to the higher
terrain.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be hot with 700mb temperatures of
13-14c moving over southern Montana and northern Wyoming. This
will translate into high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.
Possible limiting factor on these temperatures will be an increase
influx of smoke from the southwest. Increased particles could take
a couple of degrees off projected highs. Will keep the forecast
hot for now and monitor satellite imagery closely.

Thundestorms chances should be pushed to the north on Tuesday as
heights builds. As the trough over the west coast advances slowly
eastward on Wednesday, heights will fall and allow a farther east
penetration of shortwave energy spinning off of the main trough.
Therefore, Wednesday looks to have a little better chance of
convection but will still keep PoPs low due to weak forcing. TWH

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

Very limited changes to the extended forecast period. Models
remain in pretty good agreement as to overall pattern through the
bulk of the period...with much cooler and unsettled weather after
Friday cold frontal passage. The only issue is the uncertainty in
timing of waves through the flow both before and after the FROPA.

Upper ridge axis finally shifts east into the Dakotas on Thursday
and southwest flow takes over across the region. A shortwave will
cross the region through the afternoon/evening...but models
continue to have timing issues...so carried broadbrushed climo
type pops. Temps in the 90s can be expected across the region.

A cold front is progged through the region Friday...bringing
another shot at precip across the region. The front should cross
through the day...which will allow for temps ranging from 80s in
the west to 90s in the east. Front will usher in much cooler temps
for the remainder of the extended forecast period. Southwest flow
persist across the region through Sunday...with multiple
shortwaves bringing shower and thunderstorm potential. Have
continued with climo type pops through this period, as models
continue to have timing issues. The upper trof axis shifts across
the region Sunday night through Monday...which should be another
good chance at precip...so have raised pops slightly for Sunday
evening/night periods. Temps through the latter half of the period
will be well below normal...with highs in the 70s. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail today and tonight. Isold
showers/thunderstorms possible over high terrain this
evening/tonight...with localized obscurations over the
Beartooth/Absarokas and NE Bighorns. A few thunderstorms may move
off the mountains, but expect mainly erratic gusty winds around
any storms in lower elevations. Did not include thunderstorms in
the KLVM TAF due to low confidence of a storm affecting the TAF
site. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/094 064/095 063/093 061/089 055/076 051/069 047/072
    00/U    01/B    22/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/W
LVM 052/095 054/095 055/091 053/084 045/073 043/068 038/072
    20/U    02/T    23/T    32/T    22/T    23/T    32/W
HDN 058/096 060/097 060/095 059/091 053/079 049/071 045/075
    00/U    00/U    22/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/W
MLS 062/096 065/097 065/096 064/092 057/080 054/073 048/075
    01/U    00/N    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/W
4BQ 059/094 062/093 063/095 062/093 055/079 054/074 047/073
    01/U    00/N    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/W
BHK 057/090 060/091 061/091 061/090 055/079 050/071 046/071
    00/U    00/N    12/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    33/W
SHR 054/094 056/094 056/093 057/090 051/078 049/073 045/072
    10/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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