Weather Service Report


112 
FXUS65 KBYZ 181517
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 
917 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EASTERN ZONES SHOULD HAVE A BIT BETTER CHANCE TO WARM UP
THROUGH THE DAY...ADDING A BIT MORE ENERGY TO THE SYSTEM AS THIS
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CAPES LOOK PRETTY GOOD IN THOSE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY IT APPEARS
THAT THERE WILL BE A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 00Z...TO A ADD A BIT MORE LIFT. THERE MAY BE VERY SLIGHT
CHANCES FURTHER WEST AS WELL...BUT BEST POTENTIAL WOULD BE IN
PERIOD JUST BEFORE 00Z WHEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRY AIR SHOULD BE
IN CONTROL OVER FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS. OTHERWISE INHERITED
FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER ON THE
HORIZON. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALREADY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO WARRANT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN ZONES FROM WHEATLAND TO CUSTER COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS LOW BUT WILL BE BEST OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM
SHERIDAN COUNTY INTO CARTER COUNTY...BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EMBEDDED IN SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY OVER WESTERN
ZONES WITH 50S FOR HIGHS...BUT WARMER OVER EASTERN AREAS AHEAD OF
THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT. COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES IN ALZADA OVER 70 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
COOLER AIR MOVES IN THERE. WESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO GET GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AS PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
AREA ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOVES MID LEVEL WIND
FIELD DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS DOWNSLOPE WILL ALSO BRING DRYING
TO WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BRING MORE SUN LATE IN
THE DAY.

UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S BUT MAY NEED TO GO A BIT HIGHER IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE. WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FOR A VERY PLEASANT SPRING DAY. 

HYDROLOGY...ANALYZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREA MOUNTAINS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS THAT ELEVATIONS AT AND BELOW
7000 FEET WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO SEE PERSISTENT
SNOWMELT EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT SNOTEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THERE IS BETWEEN 8 AND 15 INCHES OF SNOW WATER
MOISTURE IN THIS ELEVATION SEGMENT ACROSS AREA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. GIVEN THIS
COMBINATION EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS
LEADING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OVER THE NEXT 4 OR 5
DAYS. THIS INCLUDES EAST ROSEBUD...ROCK...AND BIG/LITTLE GOOSE
CREEKS. AT THIS TIME FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION OVER THE WEEKEND. RIVERS WILL SEE RISES
DURING THIS TIME BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY PLENTY OF ROOM IN THESE
WATERWAYS TO SUPPORT THIS LOWER TO MID ELEVATION SNOWMELT. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP MILD
WEATHER IN PLACE AND BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS AIR ALOFT
IS NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS INDICATED. MONDAY HEIGHTS REBOUND
BEHIND THE WAVE AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM DESPITE
SWITCHING TO AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW THOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL
COOL DOWN A BIT.

CONTINUE TO TRACK A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. BY TUESDAY THIS INDUCES FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE OVER
SURFACE MONTANA AND DEVELOPS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MOST PRECIP WILL FALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE DIFFLUENT ALOFT WILL LINE UP WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE BUT EASTERLY ZONES MAY STAY CAPPED WITH EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. 

TROUGH AXIS OR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM IS CRITICAL TO
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
CONTINUE TO WATCH TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKS. IT WILL BE
COOLER...THERE WILL BE SHOWERS...BUT NOT CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG OR
WHEN OR WHERE UPSLOPE AIDED AREAS OF RAIN MAY DEVELOP. MELTING
SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL BRING RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS...BUT IT
HAS BEEN A DRY START FOR THE MONTH FOR THE PLAINS...SO THERE IS
SOME CAPACITY TO HANDLE RAINFALL. WILL NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES AS CURRENT SCATTERED RAIN FOR THE PLAINS AND PRECIPITATION
LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS GOOD. 

REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION FRIDAY DOES SHOW A DRYING TREND.
BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS WEST OF KBIL WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY TO
KLVM AND OBSCURATIONS TO THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MTNS
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED OTHERWISE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT KLVM AND 25 KTS AT KBIL AFTER
18Z. JKL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 036/067 042/068 039/069 044/070 045/054 038/050
    4/W 10/U    00/U    00/B    22/T    55/W    44/W
LVM 059 033/065 038/066 037/069 041/067 039/052 033/052
    5/W 10/U    00/U    01/B    24/T    66/W    43/W
HDN 065 035/068 038/070 036/070 039/073 041/056 034/051
    4/T 10/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    45/W    44/W
MLS 068 036/066 039/072 039/069 041/071 043/058 036/051
    4/T 30/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    35/T    44/W
4BQ 072 036/067 039/073 039/070 042/074 044/062 033/052
    3/T 20/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    24/T    44/W
BHK 067 035/063 037/071 038/066 040/068 043/061 034/047
    4/W 30/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    34/T    44/W
SHR 069 034/066 037/070 036/069 039/074 042/058 037/050
    3/T 20/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    34/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

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