Weather Service Report


300 
FXUS65 KBOI 092153
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
253 PM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...Temperatures across the
area continue to slowly increase as precipitation is ongoing with
the moist zonal flow and warm front that is working its way
northeast. In the Snake River Valley, snow has turn to rain in
the Western Magic Valley up through the Mountain Home area. Boise
area has seen a wintry mix through the day, but the next round of
showers later this afternoon will likely be rain. The Lower
Treasure Valley is still cold enough for snow. Elsewhere, snow is
expected to be ongoing, especially in the West-Central Idaho
Mountains. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect to highlight
this snowfall through Saturday morning. On saturday afternoon, a
shortwave trough will move across the Idaho Panhandle and a weak
frontal boundary is expected to move through from NW to SE and
bring a brief break in precip. Another shortwave will move onshore
on Sunday and bring another round of precip to mainly the northern
half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Friday...An active weather
pattern will continue through Tuesday with a chance of snow at
times. The upper level pattern will remain in a moist zonal flow
with strong westerly winds aloft. This pattern will keep snow
falling in the mountains through the period with orographic
enhancement helping boost snow accumulations in the highest
elevations. Valley locations across southwestern Idaho and
southeastern Oregon will likely have some light snow, on and off
again, during this period as well. However, the lowest valleys
will also warm to just above freezing during the afternoon hours
each day and rain may mix with the snow at times.

Wednesday through Friday Night...Model analysis demonstrating a
colder, drier solution than compared to the last couple runs.
Trended current forecast towards the GFS, though current forecast is
a bit wetter than this preferred model suggests. Will leave this
slight inconsistency in hopes of achieving additional model run
agreement. Overall, it appears that a dry, arctic airmass will
protrude over the area and present limited moisture. An area of low
pressure will advance towards the California coast late Friday,
which will push some moisture northeast, reaching into the area by
early Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...Areas of rain and a few patches of freezing rain will
continue in the valleys of southeastern Oregon and southwestern
Idaho tonight at elevations below 5000 feet.  Expect MVFR ceiling in
these areas. In the mountains above 5000 feet expect snow with IFR
ceilings.  Mountains are obscured.  SFC winds will be light and
variable at most locations. Winds aloft around 10 K feet will be
westerly at 25 to 30 kts.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Saturday 
     IDZ011-013-028-033.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon IDZ012.
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ this afternoon 
     ORZ062-064.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...EP
LONG TERM....JB/KB
AVIATION.....JB

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu