Weather Service Report


218 
FXUS65 KBOI 292049
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...AT 2PM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING IN THE 
MOUNTAINS NEAR ALL OUR CWA BORDERS...EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.  AIR 
MASS WAS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS MORNING BUT ON A GRADUAL 
DRYING AND STABILIZING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO 
MODELS.  THEREFORE WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED.  WITH 
ONLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT THEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND MAY DROP HEAVY 
RAINS.  MODELS SUGGEST HIGHEST POPS IN OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING 
THEN LOW POPS IN ALL ZONES LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES.  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE INCREASING POPS IN ALL AREAS. MODELS... 
ESPECIALLY GFS...TAP SOME HIGH-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HERNAN 
OFF BAJA CALIF AND ADVECT IT NEWD INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY.  TEMPS A 
TAD COOLER WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE VERY WARM UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOWS SIGNS OF LOSING 
AMPLITUDE THIS WEEKEND...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE 
EXPECTED. MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN THE RIDGE CIRCULATION WILL  
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION. WEAK DISTURBANCES 
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA...COMBINED WITH 
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY EVENING 
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY...BRINGING DRIER AIR AND DECREASING THE 
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN OREGON OVER HARNEY AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTIES...AND
IN IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER 06Z...THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE
5-10 KTS EXCEPT STRONGER AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT... 
NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/AB
AVIATION.....JT

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