Weather Service Report


014 
FXUS65 KBOI 050955
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
355 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
HIGH AT THIS TIME AND WELL DEMONSTRATED IN THE MODELS. THE
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY JUST
SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION AND QUICKLY MOVING IN ON A NORTHEAST
TRACK. A LOT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND EXPECTING MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE SOME
ACTION...THOUGH MOSTLY LIMITED TO SW IDAHO AFTER THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME
MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD SEE AS MUCH AS A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION BY THE END OF THE DAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING...ALONG WITH THE CLOUD
COVERAGE. BEGINNING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...A DRY
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET IN AND THE REGION WILL SEE THE SUN AGAIN AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND HOLD STEADY INTO THURSDAY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR A MUCH COOLER
NIGHT THAN LAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY DRY SPLIT 
FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BECOME UNSETTLED AGAIN AS THE 
CALIFORNIA LOW MOVES INLAND. MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS ACROSS THE NV BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE 
CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW WILL FILL AS IT TRACKS OVER SW IDAHO FRIDAY 
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A THREAT OF MORE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. 
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST THE LOW IS ABSORBED AND SW FLOW
ALOFT CONSOLIDATES SATURDAY BUT LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO
AMPLIFY WITH ANOTHER OFFSHORE/COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BUILDING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BY MID WEEK. MODELS DO
DIVERGE BY MIDWEEK ON WESTERN TROUGH AND HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS SO WENT DRY AND SEASONALLY VERY WARM FOR WED. THIS IS
CLOSE TO CLIMO/DRY POPS AND LOW ELEVATION HIGHS AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS 
FROM KBNO TO KBOI EASTWARD AT 9Z WILL LIFT THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO 
THROUGH 15Z TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED 
TO FORM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR BY 06Z THURSDAY 
UNTIL AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ400-401-420-424.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING ORZ637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....VM

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