Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KBOI 281517

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
917 AM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...Southwest winds have been updated a little stronger
in eastern Oregon Monday afternoon.  No other changes to current
forecast calling for mostly clear but locally smoky skies today,
light winds, and temperatures much like yesterday.  Monday still
looks about 5 degrees warmer than today as upper winds change from
westerly to southwesterly.  Tuesday looks as hot as Monday but with
increasing mid-level moisture from the southwest as well, and a
slight chance of late-day thunderstorms in northern Harney and
Baker Counties in Oregon, and Adams and Valley Counties in Idaho.


.AVIATION...VFR with areas of MVFR/IFR conditions in and around
wildfires. Increased mid-upper level clouds moving in this
afternoon. Surface winds, variable 10 kts or less. Winds aloft to
10k feet MSL, west-southwest 10-15 kts then 15-30 kts Monday morning.


SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Mostly clear skies expected
today, with conditions very similar to yesterday with westerly flow
aloft. Upper level flow begins to shift to the southwest in response
to an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Alaska slowly
moving southward. Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s in valley
locations on Monday afternoon under this southwesterly flow aloft.
Smoky conditions will continue, especially near the Rail Fire in
southwest Baker County, and the Pioneer Fire near Lowman.

LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday...A persistent
offshore trough will keep southwest flow over the Intermountain
Northwest through the week. Energy ejecting from the trough will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms in east-central Oregon
and west-central Idaho mountains Tuesday afternoon/evening. The main
trough gradually shifts toward the coast later in the week, cooling
temperatures to below normal by Thursday. Precipitation will focus
around a closed low off the Washington coast, keeping Baker county
and the west-central Idaho mountains on the periphery of any
precipitation through Friday. Models have trended slower slightly
north with the low center as it advances inland late Friday and
Saturday, likely keeping the Snake Plain and points south dry. 






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