Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KBOI 291547

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
947 AM MDT THU SEP 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Scattered morning clouds and isolated light showers
over SW Idaho this morning within a southwesterly flow.
Temperatures will warm to above normal levels once again this
afternoon, but not quite as warm as yesterday. The afternoon
heating will promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
in South-Central Idaho, including the Western Magic Valley.
Locally breezy (10-20 mph) winds will continue through the day.
Wind gusts to around 40 mph are possible with the thunderstorms.
Forecast is on track.


.AVIATION...VFR. Mid level clouds and moisture moving from
southwest to northeast. Enough moisture to support some afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms in Magic Valley with
isolated MVFR ceilings and gusts to 40 kts. Surface winds: light
and variable, except southeast 10-20kts in Treasure and Magic
valleys. Winds aloft near 10 KFT MSL: southwest 10-15 kts,
increasing to 20-30 kts by Friday morning.


SHORT TERM...Subtropical moisture will spread clouds north
over our Idaho zones today leading to scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight in  
eastern-most Idaho zones.  Not quite as warm as yesterday
due to cloud cover in Idaho, and Pacific upper trough 
approaching Oregon.  5 to 8 degs cooler again Friday as the
the upper trough moves closer to the coast.  Surface thermal
pressure trough will still be along the OR/ID border through
Friday causing east or southeast winds in Idaho and south 
winds shifting to southwest in Oregon.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Thursday...A disturbance will
pass through the incoming upper level low and across the region
Saturday. Looking for a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly
over the central Idaho mountains and southern Twin Falls County.
However, not seeing a good moisture flux with this disturbance so
shower coverage will be limited in scope. Will see a pretty
dramatic temperature drop of 10-15 degrees between Friday and
Saturday. Expecting another disturbance to transition through the
region on Sunday, ahead of the upper low, which will just barely
skirt southeast Oregon Monday before dipping south into Nevada. The
low's track has been trending more southerly with each model run, so
most moisture will be focused to the region's south and east unlike
forecast previously. As the upper low curves to the north and east
late Monday, southwest Idaho will see a chance of precipitation over
the higher elevations. Coolest day forecast for Monday with temperatures
ranging from the 50s to the lower 60s. Temperatures will hover around
there under a northwesterly flow through Thursday.

AVIATION...VFR under mostly clear skies. Surface winds: Generally
south to east 5-15 kts. Winds aloft near 10 KFT MSL: South 10-20 kts.






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