Weather Service Report


944 
FXUS65 KBOI 020259
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
859 PM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...A much drier and stable air mass has pushed into the
region within a westerly flow aloft. The isolated showers and
thunderstorms that were over the Southwest Idaho Highlands earlier
have weakened, with the activity confined to our south in Nevada.
There were also a few showers in far eastern portions of the Boise
Mountains (east of Idaho City), but those too have since ended.
So, for the remainder of the evening and overnight, expect dry
conditions and mostly clear skies. Convective chances are once
again limited on Saturday as the dry stable air mass will remain
across most of Southeast Oregon and Southwest Idaho, except along
the Nevada border and the higher terrain north of Baker City and
McCall. Forecast is on track.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear skies. Isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms on Saturday south of the Snake River Valley
and in the KBKE and KMYL areas. Surface winds mainly west to
northwest 5-15 kts. Winds aloft to 10k ft msl west 10-20 kts.

Sunday...VFR. Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms south
of the Snake River Valley and over the west central Idaho and
Boise Mountains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...Westerly flow aloft will
continue to push the monsoonal moisture to the southeast, which
will keep isolated thunderstorms limited to the central Idaho and
areas south of the Snake Plain towards the Nevada border this
afternoon. A weak shortwave will move across the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday, which will draw monsoonal moisture
northward back into the area with isolated thunderstorms expected
south of the Owyhee Mountains/Snake River Plain and areas north
of Baker City and McCall on Saturday. On Sunday enough residual
monsoon moisture will remain for isolated thunderstorms to develop
during the afternoon over the central Idaho mountains and south of
the Snake Plain.

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Friday...The upper low continues
to spin in central British Columbia Monday and into Tuesday pushing
out the remaining monsoonal moisture. By Wednesday the upper trough
starts to make its way through southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho.
The timing of this trough axis as it makes its way through the area
will need to be monitored closely during the next few model runs. If
this trough pushes through during the afternoon hours and has the
available moisture, some stronger thunderstorms could be
possible. After Wednesday models start to diverge so confidence
remains low at this time. Temperatures drop to a few degrees below
normal as this trough axis makes its way through the region, but
by the end of the period temperatures are back to normal.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....JC/WH

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