Weather Service Report


214 
FXUS65 KBOI 012028
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
228 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER 
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW 
MEXICO TO SRN OREGON.  MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE 
CALIF SIERRA NEVADA WILL HELP FORM THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS THE 
NV/OR BORDER LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN 
NEVADA WILL GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE NV/ID BORDER.  ABOUT THE SAME 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.  NO STORMS EXPECTED IN THE 
REST OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER THURSDAY 
THEN LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT 
IS BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE NEAR 140W.  
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO 
NORTHWESTERLY THEN BACK TO WESTERLY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DROP 
SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST AND THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE 
CANADIAN BORDER.  FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH MODELS AGREE ON THE WEATHER 
PATTERN THEY DISAGREE ON LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE 
RIDGE.  AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SHIFT 
TO HIGHER TERRAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  BY SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE GFS 
BEING THE WETTEST AND THE ECMWF THE DRIEST.  SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO 
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS 
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE 
AND ANY MOISTURE THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES 
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.  ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.  
SURFACE WINDS 12 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP 
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVITATION....JA

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