Weather Service Report


611 
FXUS65 KABQ 261122 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
522 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LESS COVERAGE
OF -TSRA/-SHRA TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FAVORED AREAS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...BUT VIRGA AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE MOST COMMON. HRRR SUGGESTS KFMN MAY BE IMPACTED
LATE THIS AFTN AS WELL...SO HAVE ADDED A VCSH TO THE TAF.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
TODAY...LIMITING SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO WARM A FEW DEGREES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND 
AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOME MORE PLENTIFUL. 
THIS WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH 
SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE 
TO RANGE FROM NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SEASON.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT A MINIMUM TODAY 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SHORT WAVE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL BRUSH NRN NM...AND 
HIGHEST GUIDANCE POPS FOR TODAY ARE AIMED AT THE NRN BORDER OF THE
STATE AS WELL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. STEERING FLOW
WOULD TAKE CELLS OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND TO THE EAST...A FEW MAY 
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE NE PLAINS/PECOS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING
AND SUCCEEDING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE JUST HOW FAR EAST AS 
CURRENT POPS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY FARTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS. 
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE WARMS UP TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY TODAY AND EVEN
MORESO WEDNESDAY.

THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY REMAINS CONSISTENT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE BACKED
OFF FOR THE EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST. THE BIGGER EVENT NOW MAY BE THE 
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND 
WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WARM UP TO NEAR 
NORMAL WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST DIVE TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TO WANT TO WARM UP A BIT TOO MUCH
THURSDAY AND STAYED BELOW IT FOR THE FORECAST HIGHS THAT DAY. 

THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEPICTED NEXT WEEK IS STILL THERE...BUT WHAT 
IMPACT IT MIGHT HAVE ON NM WEATHER IS IN DOUBT.       

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
YESTERDAYS UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND A WEAK WIND 
SHIFT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST NM BEHIND IT THIS MORNING. 
OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. WITHOUT ANY 
APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT PLUS ENOUGH 
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NE NM BEHIND 
THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS 
TODAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL 
TREND UPWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. CORRESPONDINGLY... 
HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NM...BUT 
WILL STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS. 

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HELP 
TEMPS TO WARM UP FURTHER. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 
WEEK WITH MOST AREAS WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. COULD 
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN 
MTNS...BUT GENERALLY NOT MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME 
PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL 
AND WESTERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF 
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WINDS 
LOOK TO BE TOO LIGHT TO SUPPORT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...THOUGH HAINES 
VALUES OF 6 WILL BE PRESENT. 
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN BACK INTO THE EASTERN 
PLAINS AND WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE 
NM/AZ BORDER...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL 
PLAINS.  AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION 
IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...DRIER 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD...WITH 
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT AGAIN. LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE 
CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT HAINES VALUES OF 6 WILL PERSIST. 

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS 
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY 
NIGHT...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. THE 
FRONT MAY SQUEAK THRU THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT 
MORNING. ON SATURDAY...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES 
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP PUSH 
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WESTWARD TO AT LEAST THE 
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS MAY MEAN A MORE ACTIVE SUNDAY IS IN STORE 
FOR WESTERN NM. 

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 
EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR NE NM FRIDAY...SATURDAY ALONG THE 
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE NE 
QUARTER OF THE STATE WHERE POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED. 

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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