Weather Service Report


308 
FXUS65 KABQ 261132 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
532 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Another round of -shra/tsra with lcl heavy rain, strong outflow
winds, mall hail and frequent lightning are on tap today. Storm
motions will be slow and variable. Areas that take a direct hit
will see vsby restrictions from heavy rain. Activity is expected
to continue into tonight. Best chances should be LVS and TCC so
have 3 hours VCTS with 2 hours of tempo TSRA. Only VCSH for now
at other TAF sites later this afternoon and evening, except
nothing at FMN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure aloft will be the dominant weather feature
for this week and into the July Fourth holiday weekend.  The high 
center is expected to wobble around over the region from day to day,
so areal coverage of showers and storms as well as storm motion may
vary from day to day. Daytime temperatures generally will vary 
within 5 degrees of average for late June and early June, while
overnight lows will be above normal. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Recent radar imagery proves you can't always count out the
possibility of convection despite what might be a somewhat drier air
mass, with cells drifting to the south and southeast over nw NM
early this morning. Elsewhere, Saturday evening's convection in the
plains continues to wane to what looks like sprinkles. East wind
anticipated at KABQ has been sporadic at best, so far. Plume of
moisture remains stretched across NM from southwest to northeast,
and expect it will lift slightly to the north and northwest today,
so returned slight chance pops to the far nw. Otherwise models don't
offer much new or substantially different in the short term, so not
a lot of changes necessary to the grids. Temperatures in the east
cool down a bit again today but guidance has been cooler than
reality recently so went a degree or two warmer. Overall though,
forecast highs will be within about 5 degrees of average the next
several days, while lows will be warmer than normal.  

The upper high center to drift around the Four Corners early to mid
this week, then makes occasional excursions farther south and east.
East to west steering flow leads to a more stable air mass over
portions of the plains early this week, according to the NAM12.
While weak surface boundaries in the northeast may be the result of
convection rolling off the high terrain, a bona fide front may
affect the northeast late in the work week. Moisture looks to be
sufficient for continued convection for the foreseeable future. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Active weather pattern to continue during the next seven days as the
North American Monsoon looks to get underway early. 

Upper level moisture plume continues over much of NM, oriented from
southwest to northeast across the state. The dry intrusion into the
northwest Saturday will not be quite as pronounced today, as low
level moisture has spilled into the Rio Grande Valley from the east.
This will result in a little better chance of showers and
thunderstorms from the Continental Divide to the central mountain
chain this afternoon and evening. The best chances though will be
from the central mountains to the TX border. The far northwest will
likely be rain free, roughly from Gallup to Farmington. 

High pressure aloft will build just to the northwest of NM today
through Tuesday, while the closed low over west TX slowly crosses
southern NM. We may miss out on the higher QPF amounts to the south
of our CWA, but we will certainly remain active with good coverage
of wetting rains Monday and Tuesday. Mountainous and southern areas
should fair the best overall Monday, while the mountain zones and
west receive the best rainfall Tuesday. With the upper flow from
northeast to southwest, our southeast zones will have the least
chance of rain.

The upper high will shift southeast mid and late week, taking up
residence in southeast NM. This will tap into the deeper monsoonal
moisture over Mexico. Western and northern areas will see daily
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With slow moving storms and
plenty of moisture and instability to work with, downpours will
occur and there will be a risk of localized flash flooding.
Occasional intrusions of back door fronts, aided by the
convection, will impact northeast NM through next weekend,
providing upticks in storm chances there.

Ventilation rates will remain mostly fair to excellent through this
week.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu