404 FXUS65 KABQ 181217 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 617 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORN GIVE WAY TO HEATING INDUCED MID LVL CLOUDS AND BUILDUPS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN. SCT TO WIDELY SCT HIGH BASED -SHRA AND A FEW -TSRA TO DVLP MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GLENWOOD TO CLINES CORNERS THIS AFTN UNDER APPROACHING COLDER POOL ALOFT. STIL CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY STRONGER CELLS...LIKELY TO PRODUCE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURST GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 KTS AND THAT IS TO A DEGREE ACCOUNTED FOR IN FMN...GUP AND SAF TAF TEMPO GROUPS ASSOCIATED WITH MARGINAL VCSH IN PREVAILING GROUPS. NOTE THAT TEMPO GROUP FOR CONVECTIVE GUSTS NOT CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN ABQ TAF DUE TO FACT THAT THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR ANY TRUE VCNTY SHRA...VCSH... TO REACH GROUND THERE...YET STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE MID AFTN TO VERY EARLY EVE. JUST CANNOT INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP FOR CONVECTIVE GUSTS AS AT LEAST VCSH/VCTS MUST BE MENTIONED IN ASSOCIATED PREVAILING GROUP. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG VERTICAL MIXING WILL CREATE NON CONVECTIVE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO NEAR OR A LITTLE OVER 30 KTS IN MOST TAFS FOR THE AFTN. VISIBILITIES LOCALLY REDUCED IN BLOWING DUST IN STRONGER GUSTS. WINDS DECREASING AFTER 01Z OR 02Z THIS EVENING. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013... MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TROUGH AXIS WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY. CURRENTLY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IS SPREADING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN NM. MEANWHILE A VERY WELL DEFINED DRYLINE IS POSITIONED IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. DEWPOINTS TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE 10S AND 20S...WITH EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS AROUND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AFTER ABOUT 2 PM. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 20S SO MORE SHOWERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE GFS IS MUCH DRIER HOWEVER IT STILL SHOWS SIMILAR INSTABILITY. ISOLD STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE PACIFIC FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UTAH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPS. 700MB TEMPS FALL FROM +14C CURRENTLY TO +8C AT 00Z THEN +4C BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHICH IS NEARLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME COOL TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEYS WHERE FREEZES ARE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHEAR ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND SPREAD STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE STATE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD INTO MONDAY. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE EAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MOS GUIDANCE TRENDS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MTS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE EXITS AND ANOTHER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP FOR AREAS WITHIN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM RIGHT ON TIME FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF MAY. OUR FIRST 90F READING IN THE ABQ METRO IS FORECAST NOW ON THURSDAY THE 23RD...WHICH IS ONLY 4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE. BIG QUESTIONS CONTINUE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE DRYLINE BY LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE SHIFTING WEST INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WEST COAST. SO OF COURSE AS MANY OF US AROUND HERE HAVE BEEN THINKING...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND FARTHER EAST WITH A DRIER MORE SHEARED TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE ROCKIES. GUYER .FIRE WEATHER... ...EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... AFTER SOME OVERNIGHT WIND SPEED REDUCTION...THE UPCOMING DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BRING MUCH INCREASED MIXING DOWN OF SOME HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AS WELL. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SFC WINDS BEGINNING MID TO LATE MORN AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH AND SOME CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTN. THUS RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUED FOR THESE AREAS. MOST OF THIS AREA WILL SEE MIN RH READINGS CRATER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. AFTN TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL. A FEW TO PERHAPS LOCALLY SCT THUNDERSTORMS...MORE DRY THAN WET...EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MT TAYLOR...CHUSKAS...TUSAS AND JEMEZ AFTER NOON. AS IS USUAL EXPECT RELATIVELY BRIEF AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE STRONGER CONVECTION...PERHAPS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH. SUNDAY TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO TODAYS PATTERN WITH THE WIND PARAMETERS...THOUGH CRITICAL LVL WIND SPEEDS JUST A BIT REDUCED FROM TODAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE LESS AND SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER TO EAST. MAX RH VALUES INCREASE WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED MAJORITY OF AREA. AFTN TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES NE HALF...BUT LITTLE CHANGED ELSEWHERE. WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE MID MORN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN... ESPECIALLY EASTERN NM. AGAIN EXPECTING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND FROM EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER SOME ON SUNDAY BUT STILL PORTRAYED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MONDAY STILL BRINGS SOME CONTINUED FAIR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. DAYTIME HIGHS TRENDING JUST A FEW DEGREES LOWER STILL FROM SUNDAY HIGHS. WHILE A SMALLER AREA IS IMPACTED...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WIND AND LOW ENOUGH MINIMUM RH TO CREATE SOME LOWER GRADE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM E CENTRAL PLAINS WEST TO EAST SLOPES SANDIA AND MANZANO MTNS AND ALSO PERHAPS INCLUDING MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES IN ALL BUT PERHAPS FAR NE NM. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS MON AFTN INTO TUE MORN...BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT MAKING ITS WAY TO NEAR OR A LITTLE WAYS EITHER SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY TUE. STILL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIND WILL EASE OFF SOME ON TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. BY MID WEEK MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD CAUSING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE STATE. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS BACKING INTO EASTERN PORTION OF NM...BUT STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL AS TO HOW FAR WEST ENOUGH MOISTURE INCREASE CAN GET AND THUS HOW FAR WEST THIS ACTIVITY WOULD DEVELOP. THUS CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOWER THAN IS PREFERRED LATE NEXT WEEK. 43 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>109. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108. && $$ |