Weather Service Report


459 
FXUS65 KABQ 301801
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1201 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR cond will prevail areawide as clouds lessen toward the aftn. 
Wrap around energy associated with exiting low will develop breezy to
windy NW winds across the state with stronger winds favoring the NE 
Plains. Anticipate 40-45kt gusts across the NE Plains, with 20-30kt
gusts elsewhere this aftn. It is possible that KABQ could near AWW 
criteria after 18z with increasing atmospheric mixing. 

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Impressive storm churning northeast out of NM early this morning.
Snow will come to an end this morning in the northeast but strong
winds will continue well into the afternoon. Dry northwest flow will
take over later today and continue through Monday. Gusty breezes
today will diminish Monday, with a warming trend each day. A weak
short wave trough will approach northern NM Tuesday and cross the
state Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some rain and snow showers will
favor the northeast during this time. A cold front will bring in
cooler air Wednesday, mainly for the east. A ridge of high pressure
builds in late in the work week. A storm complex along the west 
coast will bring moisture north into NM next weekend, and perhaps
beyond that. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Deepening pressure gradient at the surface and aloft as the 
impressive cut off low churns to the northeast. Snow will continue 
to wrap around the low. We will extend the winter storm warning for 
Union and Harding Counties through 6am and let the rest expire at
3am MDT. We will then have a wind advisory for Union County during
the day today. The freeze warnings will remain for now, although it
looks like the one for ABQ will not be widespread or too significant.
Sunshine will be the rule today except in the northeast. Highs will 
be much higher today, by 10 to 20 degrees. That sounds good but they 
are still 10 to 25 degrees below normal for much of the area. 

Dry and not as cold tonight with diminishing wind. The northwest flow
aloft will weaken Monday with lots of sunshine and continued warming.
Highs will reach near normal in the west but be mostly below normal 
in the east. Overall a nice start to the week. 

A short wave trough coming onshore Monday in the Pacific Northwest 
will drop southeast and deepen as it crosses NM Tuesday night into 
Wednesday. Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will develop Tuesday
afternoon in the northeast, with rain and northern mountain snow
showers Tuesday and Wednesday over the northeast third of the CWA.
A surface cold front will also cross the state with cooler highs on
Wednesday, especially in the east. 

A strong ridge of high pressure will build over NM late in the week
with a dry and warming trend. Highs will be near or above normal by
Friday. Models are in decent agreement a deep closed low will develop
along the west coast next weekend and draw moisture north into NM.
Next weekend will see an increasing chance of showers and storms,
favoring the western and northern mountains. Highs will lower a 
little while winds pick back up. Precipitation could extend into the
following week. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The strong and unseasonably cold upper level low that brought snow 
to much of NM has shifted east of the area early this morning, 
though snow is persisting across northeast and portions of east 
central NM. The snow is expected to diminish early this morning, but 
since the system continues to strengthen, strong winds on the back 
side of the system will persist across northeast NM. Gusts near 50 
mph will be possible, mainly across Union County. Breezy to locally 
windy conditions will be noted most other locations. Winds will 
decrease by sunset. Temperatures will remain quite cold area wide 
and the winds will make it feel even colder. High temps will be up 
to 15 degrees below normal west of the central mountain chain, and 
up to 30 degrees below normal across the east. 

The warming and drying trend will continue through Tuesday. A weak 
wave will cross NM in northwest flow aloft on Monday/Monday night 
which will keep a few northwesterly breezes in the forecast. A 
stronger shortwave will drop south across the central Rockies and 
clip NE NM Tuesday night and Wednesday. This stronger system will 
send a cold front through the state . Moisture will increase behind 
the back door segment of the front. This will allow showers and 
perhaps a few thunderstorms to develop along and just behind the 
front as it moves into the area late Tuesday night, and again 
Wednesday afternoon as the front nudges up to the central mountain 
chain. The combination of increased moisture, low level upslope flow 
and upper level support should yield showers and maybe a 
thunderstorm across the Sangre de Cristo and possibly the 
Sandia/Manzano Mountains and adjacent high plains. Temperatures on 
Tuesday will still remain below normal for most areas, but will fall 
again on Wednesday. Portions of eastern NM will be 10 to 20 degrees 
below normal once again. 

Upper level ridging will build in for the end of the week. 
Temperatures will warm, and should be near or above normal by 
Friday. Humidities will lower. Much of western NM will see daytime 
RH below 15 percent as early as Wednesday and continuing through 
Saturday. 

Ventilation will generally be good or better through the week. The 
only exceptions are Tuesday across the northeast and Thursday across 
portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley and the eastern plains.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for the following 
zones... NMZ530.

&&

$$

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu