Weather Service Report


619 
FXUS65 KABQ 252358 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY VIRGA SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS ALL BUT
EC NM. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. COULD SEE A
STRAY -TSRA NEAR THE 4 CORNERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS WELL. SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITAITON
MOVES INTO WESTERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE MOVED UP THE START TIME
OF PRECIP AT BOTH KFMN AND KGUP...LIKELY STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE.
PRECIP WILL EXPAND EASTWARD SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NM BY 18Z AND
OVER EASTERN NM BY 21Z. SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN IS LIKELY AT MOST
LOCALES. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT BEST
CHANCES ARE ACROSS NE NM. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
PRECIP...AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. VSBYS MAY BE LOWERED IN
HEAVIER PRECIP. THOUGH RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT...SOME HIGH ELEVATION
MTN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. WEST TO
NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
EDGING INTO THE NE...WHERE BREEZY NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...528 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO
ADDED THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH...AS THEY WERE UNINTENTIONALLY OMITTED. UPDATED ZFP AND WSW 
ALREADY TRANSMITTED. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT UPCOMING FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD
AS POTENT TROUGH ALOFT DIVES INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND MORPHS ON ITS
SOUTH END INTO A CLOSED LOW EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY AHEAD AND WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE THE
SYSTEM IS DRAGGING ALONG WILL GIVE MOST LOCALES AT LEAST LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRETTY LIKELY IN
THE FORMER AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND VICNITY OF RATON PASS AND MORE
GENERALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. DRYING AND
WARMING FROM TUESDAY ON WITH MAYBE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT UPCOMING FOR SUN TO MON PERIOD AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVES INTO AZ TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENS INTO A
CLOSED LOW ON ITS SOUTH END EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG FORCING AHEAD
AND WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS PACIFIC MOISTURE THE SYSTEM BRINGS WITH
ITSELF WILL GIVE MOST LOCALES AT LEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AMOUNTS. HEAVIEST PRECIP BY FAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRETTY LIKELY IN THE FORMER AND TO A SOMEWHAT
LESSER DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND VICNITY OF RATON PASS AND MORE GENERALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE SAME AREAS AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. BIGGEST FCST CHALLENGE
SEEMS TO BE HOW FAR...IF AT ALL...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS AND THE RATON
RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA AREA. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES AND 700 MB TEMPS
LOOK EVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THIS AREA THAN WAS DEPICTED 24
HOURS AGO...STILL ARE FACING THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE ON N TO NW SIDE OF LOW WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME GULF OF
MEXICO ORIGIN AND OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THAT AIR MASS NORTH OF
THE BACK DOOR FRONT IS NOT VERY CHILLY. DRYING AND WARMING FROM
TUESDAY ON WITH MAYBE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

JET STREAK ON THE NW TO W SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUE AFTN AND EARLY
EVE. HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD
THEN OVER NM WED AND THU...WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS LIMITING CONVECTION CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF NM THU NIGHT AND FRI. GFS
AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH TO SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS AT TIMES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES. COOL AND RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS 
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE TYPE TO MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN SOME AREAS. 

BUT FIRST...THE MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER 
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE HIGHLANDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. HUMIDITY WILL THEN TREND UP TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE 
ADVECTION INCREASES FROM THE WEST. WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO 
BEGIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE 
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE EAST ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH MONDAY AND DELIVER A 
SIGNIFICANT SOAKING RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE 
NORTHERN MTS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH 
FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS ABOVE 8000 FT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
WHERE UP TO 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL LIKELY SNOW IN LOWER TERRAIN
AREAS BUT WITH LIMITED ACCUMS. THE OTHER GOOD NEWS IS TEMPS REMAIN 
15 TO 25F BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK 
TOWARD NORMAL WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO MELT SLOWLY AND 
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES TO STAY ELEVATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTERWARD IN 
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

A RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN CREST THURSDAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL DETERIORATE WITH PERHAPS SOME 
POOR VALUES THURSDAY. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE HIGH FOR MOST AREAS WITH 
WET SOILS AND NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. GUIDANCE INDICATES A 
GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE WHICH WILL 
ENHANCE THE RECYCLING OF RAIN SHOWERS AND KEEP CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. 

CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAINFALL INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS A LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. 
THIS WILL HELP FORCE A MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE 
SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A QUICK GLIMPSE AT THE LONGER 
RANGE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY INDICATES ELEVATED 
MOISTURE AND BELOW NORAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR 
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$






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