Weather Service Report


418 
FXUS65 KABQ 030008
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
608 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND THE EVENING
SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SOME STORMS LIKELY EVEN SUSTAINING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS IS IN PLACE...SO DOWNPOURS WILL QUICKLY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CATEGORIES AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO
IFR CATEGORY. DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
ANY STORMS. LITTLE IF ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT ELSEWHERE THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE
LATE MORNING NEW STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL FOCUS WEST
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND MOVE STORMS SOUTHWARD. THE STRONG
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL THEN DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER AND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH
MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS NM WEDNESDAY HAS WEAKENED TO 592DM WHILE REORGANIZING WEST 
INTO AZ. DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS ALSO WORKED INTO THE
AREA...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS STRONG STORMS
ARE FIRING UP. THE LATEST HRRR/5KM WRF/SPC SSEO/AND NAM12 ARE STILL
ADVERTISING A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS
TO ORGANIZE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE
NEARBY HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH 6PM. AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN MAY 
RESULT FROM EASTERN CIBOLA AND CATRON COUNTIES EAST ACROSS SOCORRO
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALSO LOOK VERY ACTIVE WITH OVERALL LITTLE 
CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN OF MOIST INSTABILITY. ORIGINALLY A 
DOWNTICK WAS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN MODELS 
TRENDED LATER INTO SUNDAY...NOW IT APPEARS THAT TREND IS PROGGED BY 
MONDAY. THE MOISTURE IS HERE TO STAY AND THERE IS NO REASON TO 
BELIEVE OTHERWISE...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ALL 
PERIODS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHILE THE HIGH REORGANIZES SOUTH AND/OR 
EAST OF NM. STORM MOTIONS THROUGH THE MULTI-DAY PERIOD WILL BE SLOW 
WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES. THE LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR AT 
LEAST THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY 
VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...THEN SPIKE EVEN HIGHER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN 
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND SLOW STORM 
MOTIONS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN 
AND FLASH FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE SOME WEDNESDAY.

THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTHWEST OF NM AND 
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STEER A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD 
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A GUSTY 
EAST CANYON WIND WILL IMPACT TYPICALLY FAVORED PARTS OF THE RIO 
GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE IN PART 
TO THE FRONT...BUT ALSO TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS 
MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AND THE UPPER HIGH WILL 
MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS.  

SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT MORE SQUARELY 
OVERHEAD. WITH ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH PLENTY 
OF SLOW MOVING STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOME CELLS MAY REMAIN STATIONARY 
AND PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN NM AS AN 
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ADD FORCING FOR 
STRONGER STORMS AND GET THE STORMS MOVING AGAIN...GENERALLY TOWARD 
THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST 
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 
AREA PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER UPPER 
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH TUESDAY THROUGH THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHIFTING IT EAST OF NM 
AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE 
STATE. THE GFS BUILDS THE HIGH BACK OVER NM WITH MONSOON MOISTURE 
SEEPING NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH.  EITHER WAY WETTING STORMS SHOULD 
CONTINUE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS 
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS 
TUESDAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS WEDNESDAY. 

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY...UPWARD TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...THEN BACK DOWN 
BELOW NORMAL MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING 
ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$

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