Weather Service Report


493 
FXUS65 KABQ 190527 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1127 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK SHOWERS AND VIRGA WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN...AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL MTN
OBSCURATIONS. EXPECT PRECIP AT TERMINAL SITES TO BE SHORT
LIVED. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WENT WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
KABQ...KAEG...AND KSAF WITH ONLY A MENTION OF VCSH AT
KFMN...KGUP...AND KROW. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTN AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT ALL SITES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH A STORM COULD BRIEFLY BRING A
SITE DOWN TO MVFR CIGS. DUE TO SPOTTY NATURE OF SHRA AND
TSTMS...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR MENTION OF ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG AND EAST
OF CENTRAL MTS...GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT 
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 
40. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG BOTH 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY 
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. 
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRYING 
AND WARMING WILL COMMENCE MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE 
SPRING WINDS RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST CIRA BLENDED PWAT LOOP INDICATES A WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE 
DESERT SW UNDER STRONG MOIST ADVECTION TODAY. PCT OF NORMAL VALUES 
IN THIS MOIST PLUME HAVE INCREASED TO BTWN 100-150 PCT OF NORMAL 
WITH POCKETS OF GREATER THAN 200 PCT. SATELLITE SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED 
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PUSHING SLOWLY EAST WHILE THE CENTER OF 
CIRCULATION WEAKENS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 12Z-18Z GUIDANCE IS 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MOIST 
INSTABILITY OVER OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 16Z HRRR WAS VERY 
BULLISH ON DEVELOPING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/STORMS OVER THE SW MTS
THIS EVENING THEN SLIDING NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD INTO SAN JUAN
COUNTY...WITH ANOTHER BULLSEYE FROM LINCOLN AND CHAVES COUNTIES INTO 
THE SE PLAINS. TRENDED POPS UP FOR THESE AREAS BUT VERY DRY LOW 
LEVELS WILL BATTLE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
TOP DOWN EFFECTS TAKE OVER. 

MODEL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE PROBABLY THE STRONGEST SO FAR THIS 
SPRING SEASON FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND EAST. LIFTED INDICES MAY 
AVERAGE -2 TO -3C WTIH CAPE OF 500-800 J/KG. SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK
SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WITH SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE. ALSO RAISED POP VALUES FOR THIS PERIOD IN LINE WITH HPC 
PROBABILISTIC QPF GUIDANCE. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN SHIFTING IN FROM THE 
WEST SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONGER 
FOCUS FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE SE PLAINS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE 
MORE LIMITED FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. MAX TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD 
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WHILE MIN TEMPS REMAIN QUITE WARM. 

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING AND DRY AIR 
SCOURING OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL RETURN 
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DEFINITELY WATCHING 
CLOSELY FOR ANY FIRE STARTS FROM DRY STORM ACTIVITY THE NEXT COUPLE 
DAYS SINCE THE WINDS LOOK UGLY FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION THEREAFTER.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHTNING SLOW TO APPROACH STATE BUT LOOK FOR IT LATER TODAY INTO 
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. WETTING STORMS ON
SATURDAY WITH RESIDUAL IMPACTS SUNDAY ALTHOUGH DRIER. CONFIDENCE
HIGH FOR A MULTI DAY WIND EVENT STARTING TUESDAY AND LASTING INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY WHICH MEANS
CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHIFT FURTHER TO THE WEST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
BE A DOOZY WITH LOW TO VERY LOW RH COMBINED WITH REALLY STRONG
WIND AREAWIDE. POST COLD FRONTAL CONDITIONS MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY
WITH RESIDUAL STRONG WIND. STRONG WIND/LOW RH ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF THURSDAY.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE 
HIGHER CIRRUS HAS KEPT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING BUT 
THE RIGHT COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS QUICKLY 
APPROACHING FROM EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MAINLY ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY DRIER WILL IMPACT THE WEST. CANT RULE OUT 
SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES ADDITIONAL JUICE 
WILL FUEL WETTER SHOWERS/STORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT THE BEST 
RESULTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING AREA 
ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND 
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. 

THE SOUTHERN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST 
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 
INTERSTATE 40 STAND TO BENEFIT THE MOST IN TERMS OF SOME WETTING 
MOISTURE OR GREATER THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL BE 
FAIRLY JUICY MOST OF THE DAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL 
BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH ON SATURDAY. STORM MOTION DOEST APPEAR TO BE 
ALL THAT FAST ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING 
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST/EAST QUICKER THAN THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY.

THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT 
WITH SOME DRYING FOUND ON THE BACKSIDE INTO SUNDAY. INSTABILITY 
SHOWERS WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AND 
PERHAPS SOME COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND RESIDUAL WAVE INDUCED LIFT 
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY 
WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST...SPECIFICALLY NORTHEAST. 

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT FOR SOME RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES ON 
MONDAY. DRIER AIR WOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT IT 
APPEARS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS. PERHAPS SOME DRIER SPOT SHOWERS OVER 
THE MOUNTAINS...FAVORING THE CENTRAL MTNS. THE WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.

ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS MENTIONED 
ABOVE...MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH PROGRESSION BUT A 
SIMILAR IDEA STANDS. INCREASES IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY. 
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL LOOK TO BE THE MOST UNSTABLE 
TUESDAY...THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A TRADITIONAL OR 
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE STATE. THE WINDS APPEAR TO BE 
QUITE STRONG ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE HERKY JERKY OR WIDE GUST SPREAD LIKE 
WINDS ON TUESDAY. POST COLD FRONTAL STRONG WINDS WOULD REMAIN ACROSS 
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAINES AND NEGATIVE 
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES MIGHT BE A LIMITER IN TERMS OF CRITICAL 
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. IN THE COMING DAYS...CAN SEE A WATCH BEING 
ISSUED FOR THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AN AREAWIDE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.  
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THIS MULTI DAY EVENT ALTHOUGH  
HAINES/TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL MOST LIKELY FLUCTUATE SOME DUE TO 
SPEED AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. ANOTHER CAVEAT IN TERMS OF 
TUESDAY AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS WOULD BE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS 
PRECEDING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FRONT.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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