945 FXUS65 KABQ 131118 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 518 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 159 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 Temperatures will trend warmer today with a few more gusty showers and thunderstorms possible. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Tuesday with another round of gusty showers and thunderstorms. Most of this activity will produce little to no rainfall. Another weather system will move into the region Wednesday with greater coverage of showers and storms. Even better moisture will arrive Wednesday night with more widespread coverage of showers and storms possible Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday will be up to 10 degrees below normal for eastern NM. A drying trend will begin Friday followed by much warmer weather over the weekend. The first 90 degrees of the season is possible in Albuquerque Sunday while Roswell flirts with 100 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 159 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 With an upper level low to the east of NM and high pressure building over AZ, weak large scale lift in the form of atmospheric stretching or deformation will aid daytime heating in developing isolated showers and thunderstorms over the northern mountains this afternoon and early evening. A few relatively short lived showers or thunderstorms are possible over other mountain ranges in the forecast area, but deformation is weaker in these areas and less likely to provide the necessary additional lift to maintain an airmass cell for long. Dry microbursts are more likely from the few cells that develop over the higher terrain south of I-40 with gusts up to 45 kt possible. Shower and storm motion will be to the southeast around 15 mph. High temperatures will trend 5 to 10 degrees warmer today. Except for the southern half of the east central plains where temperatures remain very near Sunday's readings. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 159 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 The next period of active weather will begin Wednesday as a pair of upper level waves attempt to phase over the region thru Thursday. The 00Z GFS, ECMWF, and to some degree the Canadian, have trended slower with the approach of the southern stream wave approaching from the northern Baja. This results in drier southwest flow more squarely centered across southern and western NM thru Wednesday. Meanwhile, a convectively-aided backdoor front will be poised to enter northeast NM Wednesday afternoon depending on the upstream convection triggered by the approaching northern stream wave. The past several runs of the NBM have also noted this drier trend for Wednesday. Nonetheless, there are still high chances to likely PoPs for the Sangre de Cristo Mts and northeast NM late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. It is also worth noting there is some potential for strong to perhaps severe storms across far southeast NM on Wednesday. This scenario depends on how the moist and unstable return flow arriving from the Permian Basin interacts with timing of the drier southwest flow approaching from the west. By Thursday, deeper moisture is expected to surge as far west as the Rio Grande Valley from a convectively-aided boundary over eastern NM. The overall coverage of showers and storms will depend on how much lift is available with the phasing of the two upper waves. Cluster analysis has been consistent with the greater QPF focusing over the northern mts, the I-25 corridor of northeast NM, and the central highlands. PWs during this period do not look particularly juicy but some very healthy precip amounts have been advertised from global models. We shall see how this changes when higher resolution CAMs get a hold of it. The higher percentiles of the NBM QPF are quite hefty for the northern mts and eastern NM as well. A few strong storms are also possible again Thursday across central and eastern NM given the sufficient shear and instability over the region. One limiting factor may be max temps up to 10F below normal in the wake of the backdoor front over eastern NM. An overall drying and warming trend is still expected Friday in the wake of the departing upper waves. A couple showers and storms may still develop over the area but with significantly less coverage than Friday. The weekend looks much warmer and drier with stronger west/southwest flow aloft. Temps will be very close to 90 in the ABQ metro with Roswell potentially hitting 100 by Sunday. Extended models diverge considerably beyond the weekend with large variance in the H5 height fields amongst ensemble clusters. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 419 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 Sufficient atmospheric moisture remains in place to result in an afternoon round of isolated showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the northern mountains. A few weak showers or thunderstorms are possible farther south over the west central and south central mountains as well. The showers or storms farther south are forecast to be of the drier variety microburst showers and thunderstorms, capable of localized and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Any lingering showers and storms will dissipate rapidly around sunset with VFR conditions and light winds expected at all TAF sites tonight through Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 159 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 High temperatures trend warmer underneath building high pressure today and Tuesday. Residual atmospheric moisture is forecast to combine with daytime heating for isolated showers and thunderstorms over the northern mountains this afternoon. A few showers are possible elsewhere, but will likely end up producing strong outflow winds and little in the way of wetting rainfall. Similar weather conditons are forecast on Tuesday with relatively light wind outside of an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Weather changes remain the forecast on Wednesday as an upper low over southern CA begins to move eastward. Breezy conditons develop for most areas Wednesday afternoon as a result of this system along with an increase in showers and thunderstorms over the northeast quarter. This low is forecast to move overhead on Thursday and along with a backdoor front, generate widespread wetting precipitation to much of the forecast area. This low and associated precipitation shift rapidly east of NM Friday with a warming and drying trend forecast for Friday through next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 79 45 82 48 / 5 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 73 33 78 37 / 30 10 20 10 Cuba............................ 72 42 76 44 / 10 5 20 10 Gallup.......................... 76 39 78 38 / 5 10 10 10 El Morro........................ 72 42 74 42 / 10 5 30 10 Grants.......................... 76 40 77 39 / 5 5 20 5 Quemado......................... 73 43 74 43 / 5 5 20 5 Magdalena....................... 74 49 76 50 / 10 10 10 5 Datil........................... 71 46 73 45 / 10 20 20 5 Reserve......................... 79 40 81 40 / 5 5 10 0 Glenwood........................ 84 54 86 51 / 10 0 5 0 Chama........................... 66 35 71 37 / 40 20 40 10 Los Alamos...................... 69 48 73 49 / 20 10 20 10 Pecos........................... 69 45 75 48 / 20 10 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 64 37 69 46 / 20 20 30 20 Red River....................... 61 33 67 37 / 30 30 50 20 Angel Fire...................... 63 26 68 35 / 30 20 30 10 Taos............................ 69 32 76 39 / 20 10 20 10 Mora............................ 67 39 73 42 / 30 10 20 10 Espanola........................ 77 43 81 47 / 20 10 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 72 49 76 50 / 20 10 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 74 46 79 48 / 10 10 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 79 52 81 55 / 5 5 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 80 53 82 53 / 0 5 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 82 49 84 51 / 0 5 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 81 51 83 54 / 5 5 5 5 Belen........................... 82 47 84 49 / 0 5 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 80 50 84 53 / 5 5 5 5 Bosque Farms.................... 82 46 83 49 / 0 5 5 5 Corrales........................ 82 50 84 54 / 5 5 5 5 Los Lunas....................... 82 48 83 50 / 0 5 10 5 Placitas........................ 76 49 79 53 / 5 5 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 80 51 84 53 / 5 5 5 5 Socorro......................... 84 52 87 53 / 5 5 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 70 50 75 50 / 5 5 5 10 Tijeras......................... 74 47 78 47 / 5 5 10 10 Edgewood........................ 74 42 79 44 / 5 5 5 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 75 38 79 40 / 5 5 5 5 Clines Corners.................. 70 43 75 45 / 10 5 5 5 Mountainair..................... 74 45 79 46 / 5 5 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 74 46 79 47 / 5 5 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 79 52 83 54 / 10 5 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 71 48 75 50 / 20 5 10 0 Capulin......................... 66 41 74 44 / 10 10 30 10 Raton........................... 72 40 78 43 / 10 20 20 10 Springer........................ 72 40 79 43 / 20 10 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 69 42 76 44 / 30 10 10 10 Clayton......................... 73 46 81 50 / 5 5 10 10 Roy............................. 73 44 79 48 / 20 10 10 10 Conchas......................... 78 48 85 50 / 10 10 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 75 46 81 49 / 5 10 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 78 48 86 51 / 5 5 0 10 Clovis.......................... 80 51 88 55 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 83 49 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 81 48 87 51 / 5 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 85 56 93 58 / 5 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 79 49 84 53 / 10 0 0 0 Elk............................. 78 47 84 50 / 10 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...33 |