Weather Service Report


448 
FXUS65 KABQ 241128
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LCL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BLDU ALG ERN NM AND TX BORDER SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 15Z. SFC LEE TROUGH TO DVLP AFT 18Z WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ALF AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 25/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SEASONABLE DAY TODAY...WINDS WILL CRANK BACK UP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WHERE GUSTS GREATER
THAN 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND LOW
VISIBILITY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAYS WIND MACHINE HAS EXITED THE AREA THIS MORNING...THOUGH AN 
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS. 
THE FRONT DID PICK UP SOME DUST FROM SE CO WHICH DROPPED VSBYS DOWN 
TO 2.5 MILES AT KCAO. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS WILL BE BRIEFLY RAISED 
BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THEY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL 
COOL TEMPS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS READINGS. HOWEVER...HIGH 
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS. 

AFTER TODAY...THE WIND MACHINE WILL MAKE A SEMI-PERMANENT STAY 
ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO 
INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS CALI. BUT 
FRIDAY WILL BE NOTHING COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND. AS THE SYSTEM NEARS 
THE FOUR CORNERS ON SATURDAY...7H WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 
45-55KTS AS A VERY STRONG SFC LOW...984MB...DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 
COLORADO. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL MIX TO 
600 MB OR BETTER...WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN AREAS. THIS ALL SPELLS A VERY WINDY SATURDAY. BY 
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HAVE SLID NORTHEAST OF THE 
STATE...BUT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE JUST AS 
STRONG...IF NOT STRONGER. 7H WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS ARE 
DEPICTED BY THE GFS...THUS NO RELIEF FROM THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON 
SUNDAY. HIGH WIND WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE POSTED DURING UPCOMING 
SHIFTS...AND AREAS OF BLDU ARE ALMOST A CERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE 
WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR EXAMPLE...7H TEMPS 00Z SAT RANGE FROM +8 TO 
+12 DEG C...BUT BY 12Z SUN...7H TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO -4 TO -6 DEG 
C. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY 
AFTN...AND WILL QUICKLY RIP EASTWARD THRU THE PLAINS SATURDAY 
EVENING. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL 
AREAWIDE...AND THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.  
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY 
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE 
SOME DECENT WETTING AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. 

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY...AND THOUGH WINDS 
WONT BE AS STRONG AS THE WEEKEND...IT WILL STILL BE WINDY. BY 
TUESDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED BEHIND A BACK DOOR 
COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE MUDDLED LATE IN THE 
WEEK...BUT IT APPEARS THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE HERE TO STAY 
FOR THE WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL CONDITIONS CENTRAL AND EAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
...VERY STRONG WINDS SATURDAY...

UPPER TROUGH HAS EXITED THE REGION ALTHOUGH A MORE VIGOROUS FRONT 
CURRENTLY PLOWING THROUGH PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND TX 
PANHANDLE KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING. 
NORTHERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...BUT 
SOUTHWEST WINDS START TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A MUCH 
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE 
IN THE LAS VEGAS AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE 
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO 
AVERAGE BUT WITH AT LEAST GOOD VENTILATION OVERALL. 

POOR RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT OVERALL BUT ESPECIALLY MIDDLE RIO GRANDE 
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. THIS LEADS INTO 
FRIDAY...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON IN 
ADVANCE OF A DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE 
GREAT BASIN. WHILE WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY 
STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING MAY HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS 
INTO CRITICAL TERRITORY. SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 
WIDESPREAD AND WILL PERSIST FOR 5 TO 10 HOURS THROUGH THE MIDDLE RIO 
GRANDE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. FORECAST 
HAINES OF 5 TO 6 AND HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE. THE 
FAR WEST...ESPECIALLY CHUSKA MTS COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE CRITICAL 
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WATCH GOING 
AT THIS TIME. 

RH RECOVERIES REMAIN POOR FRIDAY NIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST...WHICH 
LEADS INTO A VERY WINDY DAY SATURDAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE HIGH 
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WEST WITH CHANCES FOR 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER INCREASING...THE CENTRAL AND EAST WILL 
REMAIN UNDER NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH...MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES 
AND SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES. IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD 
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL 
MT CHAIN...ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHWEST MTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH 
BEGINNING MID MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE 
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS EASTWARD. THE 
HIGH PEAKS UP NORTH MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR 
ALOFT MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY BUT HIGHS 
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND RH VALUES BEGIN TO RECOVER 
SLIGHTLY. SHOWER CHANCES SPREAD OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY BUT DIMINISH 
THEREAFTER. ECMWF AND GFS IN BETTER AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF 
NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A HUMONGOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NEW MEXICO ON THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY...RESULTING IN COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS OVERALL AND 
CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE EAST. 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR 
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING 
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

&&

$$





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