Weather Service Report


081 
AXUS74 KEPZ 160219 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO  930
800 PM THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 15 2016

...ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN EFFECT... 
...LA NINA WATCH CANCELLED... 
  

HERE IS THE PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AS OF SEPTEMBER 8 2016: THERE ARE NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME IN NEW MEXICO OTHER THAN ABNORMALLY DRY D0 AREAS SOUTH
OF A MULE CREEK COLUMBUS  LINE AN IN NE SIERRA...NW OTERO,
AND SE OTERO COUNTIES. THERE ARE NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT THIS
IN FAR WEST TEXAS.  

LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE NOT DEVELOPING AND THE WATCH IS CANCELLED AT
THIS TIME. ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE REST OF THIS
YEAR AT ABOUT THE 60 PER CENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

AS OF SEPTEMBER 15  PRECIPITATION AT EL PASO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS RUNNING AT ALMOST 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LATE MONSOON
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS  IS RUNNING MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH THE DRIER AREA WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELEPHANT BUTTE RESERVOIR IS RUNNING AT 6% CAPACITY.


SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK... THE PREDICTIVE MODELS OF BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST IS FOR NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND NO
CHANGES THROUGH DECEMBER 31. THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP
CAN BE FOUND AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THIS YEAR OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. 


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND 
WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND SHORTAGES 
OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR CROP/PASTURE
 LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR
 RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. 
FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER ARE NEEDED THEY 
WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS 
A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES 
WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART 
LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE 
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW 
CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE. 
REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE 
UNITED STATES. 
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... 
THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR. 
RELATED WEB SITES...
THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT 
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S DROUGHT 
MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS PRECIPITATION 
ANALYSIS PAGE... 
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP PUBLIC 
LANDS INFORMATION CENTER... 
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP CLIMATOLOGY AND 
PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS... 
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM WESTERN REGIONAL 
CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE 
PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ ADDITIONAL RIVER 
INFORMATION... NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ 
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... 
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL
 WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND 
REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN
AXUS74 KEPZ 292036 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-

Return to Home page


Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu