Weather Service Report


144 
AXUS74 KEPZ 261649 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO  930
750 PM FRIDAY NOVEMBER 25 2016


...LA NINA ADVISORY... 
  

HERE IS THE PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AS OF NOVEMBER 25 2016: THERE ARE NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACTIVE AT THIS TIME IN NEW MEXICO OTHER THAN SPOTTY AREAS OF
ABNORMALLY DRY "D0" CONDITIONS. THERE ARE NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IN FAR WEST TEXAS. NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCED ITS HOTTEST
OCTOBER ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 5.8 DEGREES F ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE ELEPHANT BUTTE RESERVOIR IS RUNNING AT 7.6% CAPACITY AS
OF NOVEMBER 15.

LA NINA CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DURING OCTOBER IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC OCEAN AND CONTINUE AT THIS TIME.  THERE IS A 70% CHANCE FOR
LA NINA CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THIS FALL INTO WINTER...
DROPPING TO A 35% CHANCE BY EARLY SPRING 2017. AT THIS TIME THERE IS
AN 80% CHANCE ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY SPRING INTO THE
SUMMER OF 2017. 

AS OF NOVEMBER 25  PRECIPITATION AT EL PASO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS
RUNNING AT 97% OF NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS RUNNING 50% TO 90% NORMAL
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE OF NEW MEXICO AND 100% TO
150% NORMAL EAST OF THE DIVIDE YEAR TO DATE AND ALSO IN THE GILA
WILDERNESS.


SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK... THE PREDICTIVE MODELS BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST THE POTENTIAL FOR DROUGHT TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE MOST SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH
FEBRUARY 28, 2017. THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THIS YEAR INTO THE
SPRING OF 2017 OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. 


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND 
WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND SHORTAGES 
OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR CROP/PASTURE
 LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR
 RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE
LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER
USE RESTRICTIONS ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR
LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES 
WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART 
LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE 
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW 
CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE. 
REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE 
UNITED STATES. 
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... 
THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR. 
RELATED WEB SITES...
THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EPZ/ELPDROUGHTPAGE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT 
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...
U.S DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/MAPSANDDATA/COMPARISONSLIDER.ASPX
NWS PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATEHR.GOV/PRECIP 
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/SUPPLEMENTALINFO/LINKS.ASPX
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX
PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/RT

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... 
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND 
REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...575-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EPZ/

$$

NOVLAN
AXUS74 KEPZ 292036 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-

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