Weather Service Report


607 
AXUS74 KEPZ 281453 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO  930
850 AM JUN 28 2015

...EL NINO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT... 

...PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS OF 
JUNE 23 2015: SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO: MOST OF OTERO COUNTY IS DROUGHT 
FREE EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST OTERO WHICH IS ABNORMALLY DRY. THE REST OF 
NEW MEXICO HAS ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO MODERATE DROUGHT. FAR 
WEST TEXAS: DROUGHT FREE.
 
AN EL NINO ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT. THERE IS A 90% CHANCE OF EL 
NINO CONTINUING THROUGH THE SUMMER WITH AN 80% PROBABILITY FOR THE 
REMAINING YEAR. AS OF JUNE 28 PRECIPITATION AT EL PASO IS RUNNING 
ABOUT 97 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE CABALLO RESERVOIR IS RUNNING AT 23% 
CAPACITY AS OF 22 JUNE 2015.

AS OF MAY 30 THE FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED 
AT SELECT STATIONS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND: 
EL PASO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...................2.54 
SANTA TERESA FORECAST OFFICE....................1.83 
DEMING..........................................2.63
ANIMAS..........................................2.58 
FAYWOOD.........................................2.77 
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES...........................3.37 
WINSTON.........................................3.36 
GILA HOT SPRINGS................................5.88 
TULAROSA........................................3.52 
CLOUDCROFT......................................9.65 INCHES 

SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS OF BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION 
CENTER FORECAST THAT THE PRESENT DROUGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE 
AND MAY BE REMOVED IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30 2015. 
THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND 
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS KEYING IN ON AN EL NINO EVENT AND NOW PUTS 
ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN THE "ABOVE" NORMAL 
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MAY 2016. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST 
TO BE IN THE EQUAL CATEGORY TO BELOW NORMAL CATEGORY THROUGH JUNE 
2016. 


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND 
WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND SHORTAGES 
OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR CROP/PASTURE
 LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR
 RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. 
FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER ARE NEEDED THEY 
WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS 
A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES 
WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART 
LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE 
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW 
CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE. 
REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE 
UNITED STATES. 
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... 
THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR. 
RELATED WEB SITES...
THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT 
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S DROUGHT 
MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS PRECIPITATION 
ANALYSIS PAGE... 
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP PUBLIC 
LANDS INFORMATION CENTER... 
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP CLIMATOLOGY AND 
PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS... 
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM WESTERN REGIONAL 
CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE 
PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ ADDITIONAL RIVER 
INFORMATION... NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ 
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... 
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL
 WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND 
REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN
AXUS74 KEPZ 292036 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-

Return to Home page


Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu