Weather Service Report


371 
AXUS74 KEPZ 050311 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO  930 
800 PM MAR 04 2015

...EL NINO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...  

...PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS OF 
FEBRUARY 24 2015: THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO REMAINS IN 
MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS: SEVERE 
FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY AND WESTERN SIERRA COUNTY. NO DROUGHT 
CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN OTERO COUNTY. 
...FAR WEST TEXAS: DROUGHT FREE EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF EL 
PASO COUNTY WHICH IS IN AN ABNORMALLY DRY STATE...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A LONG 6 MONTH WAIT THE PRESENT ENSO ALERT SYSTEM SHOWS AN EL 
NINO ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT.
THERE IS A 50% TO 60% CHANCE OF EL NINO CONTINUING THROUGH THE 
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER 2015. DURING FEBRUARY 2015, EL NINO 
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AX ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN BECAME 
WEAKLY COUPLED TO THE TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE. DUE TO EXPECTED WEAK 
STRENGTH, WIDESPREAD TO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED BUT 
SOME IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT DURING THE SPRING 
2015.


AS OF MARCH 4 MOST OF THE BORDERLAND HAS RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION SINCE JANUARY 1 EXCEPT WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 
WHERE IT IS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. EL PASO TEXAS IS RUNNING AT 100% 
NORMAL PRECIPITATION SINCE JANUARY 1. 


SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS OF BY THE CLIMATE 
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST THAT THE PRESENT DROUGHT CATEGORIES 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH  MAY 31 2015.

THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND 
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS KEYING IN ON Q WEAK EL NINO EVENT 
AND NOW PUTS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN THE 
"ABOVE" NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH JULY 2015. 
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE EQUAL CATEGORY THROUGH JULY 
2015 THEN BECOME ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF 2015. HISTORICALLY EL 
NINO EVENTS GIVE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AROUND 153% OF NORMAL IN THE 
SPRING HOWEVER WITH A LATE START AND A WEAK EVENT THE PRECIPITATION 
MAY NOT BE AS GENEROUS. 


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL 
AND WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND 
SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING 
WATER EMERGENCIES. 
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR 
CROP/PASTURE LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD 
WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE 
LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER 
ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 
DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS 
AND PASTURES WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS 
THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP 
AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT 
WITH SLOW CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE. 

REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH 
YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES. 


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE 
OFTEN IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT 
CONDITIONS OCCUR.

RELATED WEB SITES...

THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN 
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE 
FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S 
DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS 
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP
PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP
CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN




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