Weather Service Report


619 
AXUS74 KEPZ 230116 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO  
715 PM AUG 22 2014

...EL NINO WATCH IS IN EFFECT...  

...PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS OF AUGUST 19: MOSTLY OF 
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO IS IN SEVERE DROUGHT. 
EXCEPTIONS: SOUTH GRANT AND EAST SOUTHEAST HIDALGO ARE IN EXTREME 
DROUGHT AND CENTRAL SIERRA COUNTY IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT WITH 
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE WEST AND EAST...

...NORTHERN OTERO COUNTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO ABNORMALLY DRY AND 
SOME AREAS OF DROUGHT FREE...

...FAR WEST TEXAS: MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN EL PASO 
COUNTY AND ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN HUDSPETH COUNTY...

SYNOPSIS...

AN EL NINO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. CHANCES OF EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE 
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF 
THE YEAR WITH THE PROBABILITY AROUND 40% THIS SUMMER...INCREASING TO 
AN 70% PROBABILITY THIS WINTER AND DROPPING BACK DOWN TO A 50% 
CHANCE BY NEXT SPRING. 


THE EL PASO AREA RECEIVED ONLY 54% OF ITS NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE 
CALENDAR YEAR 2014 TO DATE WITH THE RECENT MONSOON RAINS RUNNING 
AROUND 60% OF NORMAL SINCE JUNE 15. 

SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS OF BY THE CLIMATE 
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST THAT THE PRESENT DROUGHT CATEGORIES 
SHOULD REMAIN IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH 
NOVEMBER OF THIS YEAR BUT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER SOUTHERN NEW 
MEXICO. 

THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND 
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS KEYING IN ON THE EL NINO LIKELIHOOD 
AND NOW PUTS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN THE 
"ABOVE" NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM AUGUST 2014 THROUGH 
APRIL 2015 WITH CORRESPONDINGLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN 
THAT PERIOD ALSO. 


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL 
AND WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND 
SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING 
WATER EMERGENCIES. 
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR 
CROP/PASTURE LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD 
WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE 
LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER 
ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 
DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS 
AND PASTURES WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS 
THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP 
AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT 
WITH SLOW CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE. 

REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH 
YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES. 


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE 
OFTEN IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT 
CONDITIONS OCCUR.

RELATED WEB SITES...

THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN 
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE 
FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S 
DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS 
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP
PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP
CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN




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