Weather Service Report


194 
AXUS74 KEPZ 262205 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO  930 
245 PM NOV 26 2014

...EL NINO WATCH IS IN EFFECT...  

...PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS OF 
NOVEMBER 25: THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO REMAINS IN 
ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE FOLLOWING 
EXCEPTIONS: SEVERE FOR NORTHWEST GRANT COUNTY. NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS 
FOR NORTHERN OTERO COUNTY...

...FAR WEST TEXAS: DROUGHT FREE EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF EL 
PASO COUNTY WHICH IS IN AN ABNORMALLY DRY STATE...

SYNOPSIS...

AN EL NINO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. THERE IS A 58% CHANCE OF AN EL NINO 
EVENT DURING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER WHICH IS FAVORED TO 
LAST INTO THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING OF 2015.

THE GENEROUS RAINS OF AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER HAVE BEEN VERY 
BENEFICIAL TO JUST ABOUT ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST 
TEXAS. THE EL PASO AREA IS NOW RUNNING AT 96% OF ITS NORMAL RAINFALL 
FOR THE CALENDAR YEAR 2014 WHILE MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO IS 
AVERAGING ABOUT 120% OF NORMAL. SNOWFALL THIS SEASON SO FAR LIN 
RUNNING ABOUT 50% BELOW NORMAL IN THE GILA WILDERNESS.  

SOME CUMULATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS (INCHES)
FROM JANUARY THROUGH OCTOBER 2014:
EL PASO AIR PORT...................8.34
SANTA TERESA (KEPZ)................8.72
LAS CRUCES NMSU....................7.55
DEMING.............................8.77
FAYWOOD............................9.21
GILA HOT SPRINGS...................13.45
WINSTON............................11.73
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES..............9.41
CLOUDCROFT.........................23.88

SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS OF BY THE CLIMATE 
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST THAT THE PRESENT DROUGHT CATEGORIES 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND SOME AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 
REMOVED THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 2015..

THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND 
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS KEYING IN ON THE EL NINO LIKELIHOOD 
AND NOW PUTS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN THE 
"ABOVE" NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM OCTOBER 2014 THROUGH 
APRIL 2015 WITH CORRESPONDINGLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN 
THAT PERIOD ALSO. HISTORICALLY EL NINO EVENTS GIVE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AROUND 145% NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN WINTER AND 153% IN THE SPRING. 


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL 
AND WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND 
SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING 
WATER EMERGENCIES. 
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR 
CROP/PASTURE LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD 
WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE 
LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER 
ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 
DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS 
AND PASTURES WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS 
THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP 
AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT 
WITH SLOW CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE. 

REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH 
YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES. 


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE 
OFTEN IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT 
CONDITIONS OCCUR.

RELATED WEB SITES...

THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN 
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE 
FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S 
DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS 
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP
PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP
CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN




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