Weather Service Report


608 
AXUS74 KEPZ 240403 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO  
900 PM FEB 23 2014

...PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS OF FEB 18: ALL OF SOUTHERN 
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT EXCEPT FOR 
WESTERN LUNA AND HIDALGO AND WESTERN GRANT COUNTIES AND THE 
NORTHEAST PORTION OF OTERO COUNTY WHICH ARE IN SEVERE DROUGHT 
CONDITIONS...

...FAR WEST TEXAS: MODERATE DROUGHT IN WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY AND 
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN EASTERN EL PASO AND WESTERN HUDSPETH 
COUNTIES...

SYNOPSIS...

AS OF FEB 23 2014 ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUED AND ARE FAVORED INTO 
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE INTO THE SPRING OF 2014. SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IN THE ENSO 3.4 REGION OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN 
USED TO MONITOR ENSO CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NEUTRAL RANGE 
THROUGH THE SPRING OF 2014 WITH NOW A FORECAST TOWARD LOWER END EL 
NINO VALUES BY SUMMER INTO THE FALL OF 2014.


THE EL PASO AREA RECEIVED 9.51 INCHES OF RAIN FOR 2013 JUST SHY OF 
THE 30 YEAR AVERAGE OF 9.71 INCHES. SO FAR INTO 2014...EL PASO HAS 
ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION SINCE JAN 1 AND IS RUNNING .79 INCHES 
BELOW NORMAL AS OF 02/23/2014. THIS IS THE 5TH TIME SINCE 1879 THAT 
EL PASO RECEIVED NO PRECIPITATION DURING JANUARY. THE STATE OF NEW 
MEXICO HAS HAD NO PRECIPITATION OF ANY CONSEQUENCE FOR JANUARY WITH 
ONLY THE TOWN OF GILA HOT SPRINGS SHOWING .02 INCHES. JANUARY 2014 
RANKED THE DRIEST EVER FOR THE STATE OF NEW MEXICO...THE SECOND 
DRIEST EVER FOR ARIZONA...AND THE 5TH DRIEST EVER FOR TEXAS.


PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR 2013 FOR A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS 
FOLLOW:
EL PASO........................ 9.51  AMTS IN INCHES    
DELL CITY...................... 16.53 
LAS  CRUCES.................... 6.42  STATE UNIV 
SANTA TERESA .................. 11.18 KEPZ
DEMING......................... 10.01
ANIMAS......................... 06.60
GILA HOT SPRINGS............... 15.31
RED ROCK....................... 11.44  
FAYWOOD........................ 11.40
WINSTON........................ 15.87
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES.......... 12.21
ELK............................ 14.97
HILLSBORO...................... 11.98
CLOUDCROFT..................... 28.67
OROGRANDE...................... 9.35

SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS OF BY THE CLIMATE 
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST THAT THE PRESENT DROUGHT CATEGORIES 
SHOULD PERSIST IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MAY OF 
THIS YEAR WITH DROUGHT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY SOME IN 
HUDSPETH COUNTY OF FAR WEST TEXAS.

THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND 
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NOW PUTS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND 
FAR WEST TEXAS IN THE "EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION 
CATEGORY FOR MOST OF 2014 INDICATING THAT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO 
CLEAR CUT SIGNAL EITHER WAY. 

THE SPRING AND SUMMER STREAMFLOW FORECAST AS OF FEB 1 2014 PREDICTS 
THE RIO GRANDE BASIN IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHOULD RUN AROUND 25% TO 
49% OF NORMAL. AT THIS TIME ELEPHANT BUTTE RESERVOIR IS RUNNING AT 
14% CAPACITY AND 24% OF AVERAGE. THE SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK FOR THE 
SPRING OF 2014 FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO IS FOR SOIL 
MOISTURE TO RUN SOME 20 TO 40 MM BELOW NORMAL.


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL 
AND WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND 
SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING 
WATER EMERGENCIES. 
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR 
CROP/PASTURE LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD 
WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE 
LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER 
ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 
DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS 
AND PASTURES WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS 
THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP 
AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT 
WITH SLOW CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE. 

REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH 
YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES. 


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE 
OFTEN IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT 
CONDITIONS OCCUR.

RELATED WEB SITES...

THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN 
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE 
FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S 
DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS 
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP
PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP
CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN




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